April postcards from Old Man Winter are common, but this May postcard has been waaaay out of bounds.
That said, you’ll like what we have to say about the rest of the day.
Today
At 11am the rain rope (“rain shield”) was sitting along I-65 and very, very slowly moving east at around 15 mph. It’s also way too chilly for May: 46 at 11am.
A Flood Watch is in effect until 7 am Sunday. Here’s an official graphic:
It’s going to rain tonight and into the overnight hours. The ETA for Williamson, then Davidson, Counties is between 8pm and 9pm tonight. Follow along on Twitter for more frequent and detailed updates (@NashSevereWx).
Whoever is doing the rain dance, did it right! Blame a “cutoff low” spinning in the middle of the country. It should rain out most – if not all – of the entire weekend.
So what is a cutoff low? It’s a low pressure system that has been “cutoff” from the flow of the jet stream (upper level winds) which push weather systems around. Since the low pressure system is cutoff from what steers it, it will just meander over the next few days, sending waves of rain our way. Until another system comes along and shoves it into the Atlantic Ocean, we are stuck dealing with it.
They say when it rains, it pours, and that is exactly what we have in the forecast. Rainy day after rainy day.
Rain chances increase, starting this afternoon.
The Hi-Res NAM has spotty showers as early as today. Here it is Thursday 4 PM:
There’s a very small – almost unmentionable – chance of a stray shower tonight. If we get one, it shouldn’t be enough to rain us out. We’ll make it to 80.
A slightly better chance of a shower or thunderstorm. The best chance will be in the afternoon. Rain-out chances are low. High of 78.
After a dry and warm week, rain threatens to return this weekend.
A chance of rain is in Thursday’s forecast, but the better chances are Friday and Saturday. Looks like a very slow rain system.
The Hi-Res NAM delivers showers Friday. Here it is Friday night at 7pm:
Just finished the NWS week-ahead briefing. Here’s what’s up:
Rainfall totals over the weekend:
No river or creek in Davidson or Williamson County is expected to rise further. Here are three (actually, four) examples to put your mind at ease.
No rain expected through Wednesday night:
Temps will top out in the upper 70s or low 80s Monday through Wednesday. A small chance of rain arrives Wednesday through Saturday. No severe weather in the forecast.
Several Flood Advisories and Warnings remain in effect this morning. Water can still rise and remain dangerous even after the rain has stopped. Water packs tremendous power, respect it. Don’t drive through it. Flooding reports continue to pour in to the NWS.
Rain is likely overnight tonight as we sleep. So says the Hi-Res NAM (4 AM):
Several other models say the same thing — rain piles in during the middle of the night, and slowly moves across the area in the morning through noon. It finally departs sometime tomorrow afternoon/early evening.