The Week Ahead; Goodbye To The Original Intern

Editor’s Note

Sometimes y’all ask “Is the intern a real person?” As if “are you just making him up?” Yeah, the interns are real.

Like most of our great ideas, the idea to get an intern came from Erik Proseus of @memphisweather1 ( Erik had interns in the Spring of 2013, and we needed one after deciding to jump into this website with both feet. We got resumes, conducted interviews. It was pretty close, but we chose Yasser Kishk. Great decision by us.

At the time, Yasser was a junior broadcast meteorology student at Mississippi State. His job was to study and write our forecast, tell jokes, then tolerate my editing. We needed him to deliver when he said he would (he did). We needed him to be responsive to our needs (he was). We needed him to find us his replacement (did a great job with that). We needed him to have fun with it (he did). We needed him to take some time off to have some fun in college, go storm chasing, do the football game thing (we try to be cool), but all in all, he took very little time off. There were times we had to tell him to take the weekend off. Yasser cared/cares a lot about doing a great job.

Along the way, Yasser wrote for us from Canada. And Egypt. Yes, he actually wrote a forecast for us while in Egypt. For no money (but a little school credit)!

We thought so much of him that we convinced Trevor Boucher, who was running Severe Weather Awareness Day for NWS-Nashville, to let Yasser and a friend (Hayden Nix) drive up from Starkville to be the gophers for the event. Yasser and Hayden showed up late on Friday night, turned up at the event super early Saturday morning, accepted a lot of responsibility, then worked tirelessly all day. They did this for free. During Spring Break.

Yasser graduated in May. Last weekend, he was offered and smartly took a job as a meteorologist at KOTA-TV in South Dakota. He’s going to do what he loves, and what’s he’s great at.

During Yasser’s tenure with us, which began June 1, 2013, and ends today, this website has seen 112,645 users, with 1,221,429 page views. He is largely responsible for this.

When the News Director for KOTA-TV called me for a reference, I told him Yasser is responsible, personable, and smart. When Yasser told me he had accepted the job, we celebrated that he gets paid to do what he loves. Will and I are very happy for him, and wish him well. Yasser has served you well. If you think about it, tell him thanks. You can tweet him here.

Anyway, below is his last forecast (Don’t worry, we still have The Intern 2.0):

This Week — We get into a Fall Groove. No Rain Expected!

white people animated GIF

No crazy or out of control weather.

Monday – Mostly Sunny, with Maybe An Afternoon Sprinkler – Wake Up 45°, High 68°

Fall remains in cruise control.

swag animated GIF

A little shortwave will pass this afternoon and give us a very small chance of rain. HRRR is a believer in it though. No chance of a rainout, but don’t be surprised to see a light shower.

Tuesday – Superb – Wake Up 48°, High 67°

We can’t stop, and we won’t stop cruisin’.  Still no rain to speak of in this forecast.

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

7-Day Forecast for Latitude 36.17°N and Longitude 86.78°W (Elev. 479 ft) - Internet Explorer 2014-10-19 17.54.35

Well done, Intern. Before you leave, you missed a spot on the hood of Will’s jeep.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

The Intern Returns….From Egypt! (Seriously. Egypt)

(Editor’s Note: The following post was written this morning by The Intern 1.0, the original. He is currently in Egypt. The circumstances surrounding his current location shall purposely remain unclear. We will not comment on whether this is Intern punishment from @NashSevereWx management, or a glorious family vacation The Intern richly deserves.)

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Behold, this is the first NashSevereWx update written from the Land of The Pharaohs, and what better place to make a little history than the world’s oldest continuously inhabited civilization on Earth. Welcome to “The Mother of The World,” EGYPT!

Naturally they put me (the original-now-graduate intern) to work on the other side of the world. After a long day replicating the Giza Plateau, I forgot to take a picture with the logo and had to crop it in instead…. and, yes, I made all of those.

Untitled 2014-08-15 16-32-17 2014-08-15 16-32-46

Today  Enjoyable – High 89


Still feeling the effects of the dry air that was piped in earlier in the week. Y’all can’t complain about “below average” humidity for August!

Saturday – Warming Up, Mostly Sunny  Low 65 , High 92

Everything unfortunately turns back to “average” summertime temps and humid conditions. Be thankful for your A/C. (I have not had A/C for stretches of up to a week at a time this summer in the Egyptian desert heat)

There is a chance that some rain could make it into the area around midnight, but most/all of Saturday should remain dry.

Sunday – Thunderstorm Chances Return  Low 70 , High 92

Rain/Thunderstorm chances return. The best chances are in the afternoon and evening.

Official NWS Extended Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-08-15 at 4.07.18 PM

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Heat, Our Oppressive Dictator

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

In continuing with the theme of finding new ways to say “it’s hot outside,” I bring you our Unbenevolent Dictator.

I don’t know, he kinda reminds me of the sun, the way he glows at us and all.

Thursday – Mostly Sunny With Isolated Showers/Thunderstorms Possible – High 93

With all the oppressive heat, and the fear of a random pop-up thunderstorm, we must rise up and fight back. By keeping hydrated, and staying indoors with air conditioning. (Editor’s Note: obviously, y’all).

I would not plan on getting any rain today, but we can’t rule out a random shower or storm.

Friday – Scattered Showers/Thunderstorms Possible – Wake Up 72, High 93

The fear of pop-up showers/thunderstorms are on the rise after fighting back yesterday. The oppressive heat is not letting up either. Time for a revolution?

All we need are ostriches to bust up in there and take them down… (I can’t stop laughing at this GIF. Like what was this guy thinking? This probably is not real.)

Saturday – Scattered Showers/Thunderstorms Possible – Wake Up 70, High 91

After our revolution it will still be oppressive, but not quite as oppressive as it has been. Rain chances are on the rise in the afternoon in response to our revolt.

Don’t “dance, dance revolution” too much.

The cycle never ends….Welcome to the first day of Summer and the longest day of the year.


Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-06-19 at 9.53.06 AM

More Active Weather & Microburst Explained

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Sunday – Partly Sunny – High 84

The real storm activity today will stay well to our south and west. No rain for us, and the humidity is not terrible either. =D

Monday – Thunderstorms – Wake Up 63, High 85

Could see some strong thunderstorms tomorrow evening. Damaging wind and hail are going to be our greatest threat. Looks like there could be a round of thunderstorms in the afternoon, and a stronger round after midnight. More details and better ETAs tomorrow.

SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has us under a 5% chance of seeing severe within 25 miles of you:

Screen Shot 2014-06-08 at 11.33.17 AM

Here is what the Hi-Res NAM model looks like Monday 2 pm – Tuesday  7 am:

Tuesday – Thunderstorms – Wake Up 68, High 85

We have another chance at seeing more unsettled weather.

SPC had this to say:

Screen Shot 2014-06-08 at 11.34.22 AM

Screen Shot 2014-06-08 at 11.33.42 AM

We are just not sure were things will be igniting exactly.

This 5% area could easily shift to exclude us, or increase to 15% chance of severe weather occurring within 25 miles of you. Will have to wait and see what happens as we get closer to Tuesday.

Still lots of active weather. No need to mow/water the lawns. Just going to be too wet.

Official Extended NWS Forecast:Screen Shot 2014-06-08 at 11.39.26 AM

What is a Microburst?

No, it’s not one of the best weather band names out there.

The short answer is, a small area of cool air rushing toward the surface, and in extreme cases have powerful winds over 150+ mph. They can cause some serious damage, and can sometime be a threat to life and property. Almost as if someone punches the ground with wind.


The long answer. There are three types of microburst, dry, wet, and hybrid.  All occur due from slightly different factors that all cause a downward rush of cool air.  Most common and what we dealt with in our area recently was a wet microburst caused by dry air aloft (or and updraft) holding or suspending precipitation. Once with the dry air is mixed out (or updraft has weakened) or is no longer strong enough to suspend the precipitation it falls, and gets forced down as a ball of water falling from the sky rushing air out in all directions. The strongest winds occur where the center of the microburst occurs and winds weaken as is moves outwards.

Literally all the air is pushed away and rushed out.

Another way to identify a microburst is a rain foot it can leave behind.

Rain foot - Google Search 2014-06-08 13-10-28 2014-06-08 13-10-57

It can happen very quickly. In-between the 5 minute scans of a radar. Airports are the only places that have the proper equipment to detect a microburst due to DL 191 that crashed on August 2, 1985 at Dallas Fort Worth. It was actually over a 100F right before they flew straight into a microburst while trying to land and crashed. You can see why this would be dangerous for any aviation situation.

Since these things happen so fast and are hard to detect, a severe thunderstorm warning can have very little lead time if there is a warning issued at all for a microburst.

Here is a rare example of a severe thunderstorm warning being issued due to a microburst. This was from last Summer in Salt Lake City, Utah. Notice there is basically ZERO precip, so this would be a dry microburst. It was warned because it was close to the airport in Salt Lake witch detected the microburst to begin with.


This is some of the damage they can cause in more extreme cases.


micro_damage1This is why it can be just as important to take severe thunderstorm warnings just as serious as tornado warnings. It’s different atmospheric processes that can cause the same amount of damage.


Watch It Spin

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tonight – Scattered Thunderstorms  10 PM Temp 75

Low pressure continues to spin to our SW. It’s now lingering over the ArkLaMs (see below), and it’s to blame for all the counterclockwise rain/storm movement in the radar image above. It’s not moving very fast, and it’s tapping** tons of Gulf of Mexico moisture.

(**Editor’s Note: I would have chosen a different word)

Everyone will probably see at least a little rain before the night’s end, but no severe weather is forecast.

Editor’s Note: Notice that the low is spinning showers N, but because we’re far enough away from the center of the low, most of the showers have been “turning left” (west) and missing us. Many of you have been asking “rain/no rain” for various chunks of time, but all we can really do is reply with what the weather models say — and they have different solutions. One day, the science will catch up with the demand for very specific information, but until then, I’m not going to pretend we have a certainty we don’t have. I think the only honest way to handle those questions is by acknowledging, as @spann says, “we aren’t that good” (and @spann is 1,000 times better than I’ll ever be). 

HRRR Midnight Tonight:

Friday – Scattered Thunderstorms – Wake Up 65, High 85

Early morning patchy fog is likely.

On a regional scale, things will be a little less active than Thursday, but that will be little consolation if we’re again chosen by the aforementioned and still-lingering low pressure system to get rain. Severe weather remains out of the forecast, although it is possible we may see an isolated strong storm.

Saturday  Isolated Thunderstorms  Wake Up 65, High 88

The low pressure will finally regress, and with it, our rain chances. Still, an isolated storm remains possible, especially in the afternoon.

Keep in mind all temps are taken in the shade.


Beat The Heat 911

Pro Tip: If you’re going to creatively beat the heat, consult physics:

Official NWS Extended Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-05-29 at 4.09.03 PM

This site supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

More Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tonight – Scattered Thunderstorms  10 PM Temp 75

Low pressure spinning over the ArkLaTex is amplifying everything, and will be responsible for our rainy weather chances till the weekend. It’s not moving very fast as it’s tapping tons of Gulf of Mexico moisture.

Everyone is going to see rain — some very heavy — in Davidson and Williamson County.

Some fog after 1 AM is possible.

Thursday – Scattered Thunderstorms – Wake Up 68, High 88

There could be a few patches of fog in the early morning, it should will mix out quickly after sunrise.

Scattered showers/thunderstorms that develop won’t just be limited to the afternoon thanks to that low we talked about above. Afternoon storms should be a little more potent than any morning showers that develop.

Friday  Scattered Showers & Thunderstorms Wake Up 66, High 89

Things stay mostly unchanged from Thursday. Probably a bit more sunshine and a little less coverage area in our scattered showers/thunderstorms.

Rain and storms will be like darts on a map.

Either you get hit or you, well, don’t…

Gratuitous Ron Swanson gif:

Official NWS Extended Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-05-28 at 4.33.52 PM

This site supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

We Expected A Purple Crayon!

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

(Editor’s Note: I hi-jacked The Intern’s theme and replaced it with this:

It’s that time of year when we expect the purple crayon….and get something else, leaving us betrayed, confused, and angry. All along, the yellow crayon was at work, and we had no idea.

So it is with thunderstorm chances. We think we’ll get them, only to find out, nope. Such is life forecasting summer storms).

Tonight – Possible Isolated Thunderstorms  10 PM Temp 73

A very active radar across the southeast! Middle Tennessee getting spared for the most part, at least for now. Things could change as we continue through the afternoon and evening as storms collapse and new ones arise.

Some of us may get heavy rain, while others will remain bright and sunny. The impossibleness* of forecasting where afternoon thunderstorms will pop up next, continues…

* not a word.

Storms are just so random:

(Editor’s Note: I can’t explain this.)

Wednesday –  Possible Afternoon Thunderstorms – Wake Up 68, High 84

Rinse and repeat, with a slightly higher chance of heavy downpours.

Thursday  Possible Afternoon Thunderstorms Wake Up 67, High 86

Thursday (Friday, too) look much like Wednesday: storms possible, more likely in the afternoon, we’re not sure where, with no expectation of any severe weather. The worst we could see is a strong gust of wind or a few very isolated events of pea size hail.

Official NWS Extended Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-05-27 at 4.11.21 PM

This site supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Beautiful Memorial Weekend, With A Slight Chance of Rain

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Today is Heat Awareness Day, and just in time for the unofficial start to Summer this Memorial Day Weekend!

Heat is the # 1 weather related killer in the USA. On average more people die from heat than floods, hurricanes, tornadoes, and lightning combined!

Beat The Heat 911


43 children and untold numbers of pets left in parked vehicles died from hyperthermia in the US last year alone.

#2 Avoid peak daytime heating hours 10 am – 6 pm.

#3 Drink plenty of fluids.

#4 Wear light reflective clothing.

More info from NWS & NOAA click here.


Tonight – Possible Isolated Thunderstorms  10 PM Temp 70

Current radar trends show a pop up storm in western Williamson County. This will track slowly east over the next few hours. Expect a soaking if you get hit by this thing. This is all due to a leftover boundary.

Things will die down with the sunset.

Saturday –  Sunshine – Wake Up 60, High 85

Great day to hit the road and travel to your Memorial Day Weekend getaway, or pop open the grill for a BBQ by the pool, aahhhhhhh. Enjoy it y’all!

Sunday  Isolated Thunderstorms, Partly Sunny  Wake Up 61, High 87

Those pesky afternoon shower/thunderstorms return to the forecast. Plan for rain, but don’t bet on it.

Official NWS Extended Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-05-23 at 4.00.05 PM

If you care to know, here is the “official” hurricane outlook from NOAA (National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration):


This is basically impossible to forecast but we do it anyway. Even if there are 13 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes, it does not mean a thing to us unless it hits something. It only takes one storm to make it a bad season. Always be prepared.

This site supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

Still Hot, Still Looks Wet Saturday/Steeplechase

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tonight – Mostly Clear – 10 PM Temp 73

We reached 88F today, only 4 degrees shy of breaking the record for May 6. The average temp for this time of year is 76F. Hopefully, this isn’t foreshadowing a sweltering summer.

WednesdayBeautiful! Bit Windy – Wake Up 59, High 87

Thursday – Sunny – Wake up 60, High 86

Still nice and summer-like!

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-05-06 at 3.36.14 PM

Steeplechase Forecast

Rain, and maybe even some strong thunderstorms, remain in the weekend forecast. Severe weather is not forecast.

That said, the GFS and Euro weather models aren’t in total agreement regarding the rain.

Whereas the Euro keeps in a steady rain most of Friday and all day Saturday (clearing out by 1 AM Sunday), the GFS model (below) thinks it’ll rain off-and-on. See Friday 7 am – Sunday 1 pm:

This discrepancy illustrates why we don’t trust the models this far out. Officially, however, rain is “likely” all day Friday and Saturday. The Weather Prediction Center’s outlook for rain totals from Friday 7 PM through Sunday 7 PM looks grim:

Continue to check back for updates as we fine tune the weekend forecast.

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.

More of the Same (Saturday/Steeplechase Still Looks Rainy)

Current Official Hourly Observation (taken at :53 on the hour)

Current Radar Loop

Temp & Rain Probabilities Next 36 Hours (auto-updating)

Tonight – Mostly Clear – 10 PM Temp 76

The feel of Summer in the air continues!


Tuesday– Sunshine – Wake up 59, High 86

Pool day? I think so!

Wednesday – Sunny – Wake up 59, High 86

Winds will be increasing some, just making it that much more awesome outside!

Official Extended NWS Forecast:

Screen Shot 2014-05-05 at 3.20.19 PM

Steeplechase Forecast

We are less than a week from Steeplechase, and rain seems likely Saturday AM. As for the afternoon and evening, I’m giving it a 50% chance of rain.

The GFS model below does the best job of showing us how the system wants to linger. The Euro model – which we can’t show – agrees.

GFS model Friday 7 am – Sunday 7 am:

Continue to check back for updates as we fine tune this weekend forecast.

This website supplements info @NashSevereWx on Twitter.