A Flood Watch is in effect until 7 am Sunday. Here’s an official graphic:
It’s going to rain tonight and into the overnight hours. The ETA for Williamson, then Davidson, Counties is between 8pm and 9pm tonight. Follow along on Twitter for more frequent and detailed updates (@NashSevereWx).
Saturday: Maybe A Rain Break?
It does not look possible anyone will be playing soccer or baseball tomorrow. I declare tomorrow a sleep-in Saturday! You’d need Moses to part this much water.
What’s worse, it’ll be colder. At times today Memphis was 30 colder than we were. That cold air is coming our way.
There may be a break in the rain (or at least a noticeable slackening) some time between Saturday late afternoon and Sunday morning.
Check out this Hi-Res NAM model. The looping animation starts Saturday at 1am. Each frame goes forward 6 hours, until it stops Sunday at 1am.
Notice how the main “rope” of rain tries to pull away into east Tennessee Saturday night? That may be our break. Another model, the WRF, thinks this rain may end sometime around dark Saturday night (only to start up again Sunday).
A third model, the GFS, disagrees. It keeps the rain spigot on all day Saturday, and gives us the break closer to midnight Saturday. The European model doesn’t give us much of a break at all, but it kindly extends us a noticeable slackening Sunday morning.
If you’re looking for rain relief Saturday, the (largely unhelpful) models want you prepared for disappointment. Even if the NAM and WRF are right, and it stops sometime Saturday night, it’ll be a muddy mess. Comfort yourself with:
For Saturday, plan for 2″ of rain:
It’ll still be raining, but not as consistently. Notice how most of the rain will have pushed east: