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Little/No Hope for a Dry Weekend

Today

There’s a very small – almost unmentionable – chance of a stray shower tonight. If we get one, it shouldn’t be enough to rain us out. We’ll make it to 80.

Thursday

A slightly better chance of a shower or thunderstorm. The best chance will be in the afternoon.  Rain-out chances are low. High of 78.

Friday

Rain chances increase. High of 76.

Rain will form to our west, and slowly creep toward us. Rainfall totals from Friday at 7am through Saturday at 7am:

Wx models provide varying rain ETAs for Friday.

Hi Res NAM has it raining by 4pm Friday:

The GFS model similarly delivers light rain by 4pm Friday:

Don’t want rain Friday?

Behold the WRF. It likes a dry Friday. According to this model, rain is still hanging out in west TN by 7pm:

The European model agrees with the dry WRF. By 10pm Friday, the rain is still off to our west:

Saturday

Although the above models vary on the ETA of rain Friday, they all hold back the bulk of the rain until Saturday.  There is little hope of a dry Saturday according to the three main models:

NAM

This is the “driest” of the three models, and it’s pretty wet.  Rain begins Friday night, and ends just after 1pm Saturday afternoon. Here it is ending:

The NAM estimates about 2″ of rain for the 36 hour period ending Saturday at 1pm:

GFS

This model hangs on to the rain all day Saturday and a good part of Sunday. By 10pm Saturday, it thinks we will have seen about 2″ over the preceding 36 hours:

European:

Agrees with the GFS: rain Saturday, although maybe not as much. I’ll spare you the gory graphical detail.

NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center

The WPC curiously predicts less rainfall than the models do for the weekend:

We expect our rain chances to shrink a bit Sunday. But, rain is “likely” Saturday, and I can’t find a weather model which won’t rain us out. Temps Saturday will be significantly cooler. The high is forecast to be 63.

The reason there are so many weather models is because so many of them are “wrong.”  But, when they all agree like this, it’s not a good sign.

There’s still time for them to change. Look for an update tomorrow.

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