Last night, we wrote that the HRRR model predicted a “rain/snow mix” that was to end around 8 AM (this will turn out to be off by 2 hours, and off because it was all snow, no rain). The NAM3 model predicted precip will hold off until mid morning (it had the timing a bit better, but was way off on the precip type). Several models did not have this AM snow at all.
“Northwest Flow” is weather nerd for winds blowing from the north west. Our rain/mix/snow will be riding NW flow overnight through Saturday night.
Saturday will be cold. We won’t get higher than the low 40°s.
Our local National Weather Service Office will be conducting multiple storm surveys today as a result of last nights severe weather. One of the areas that they will be looking into is in Williamson County. Once we learn their findings, we will let you know.
Our severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled prematurely. Catch some zzz’s to the rain! If you have any further damage reports, please tweet using the #tSpotter.
Friday
Rain will quickly end Friday morning, and then begins the rapid cool down. A cold north wind will take over on Friday, gusting as high as 20 mph at times.
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Middle Tennessee
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 830 PM until 100 AM CST.
* Primary threats include… Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
As I write this update, it’s 77°, but our dewpoint is a very-dry 33°. Dewpoints that low aren’t going to fuel any bad storms.
But, storms currently in Missouri will surf a thin wave of higher dewpoints arriving in Middle Tennessee late tonight.
For those of you who have been enjoying these above-average temperatures, well you are sort of in luck. Tomorrow appear to be the last day, at least for the near future, with our highs climbing into the 70s.
Winds will become northwesterly and a bit gusty at times tonight into Wednesday.
Highs will still stay well above normal into the end of the week as southerly winds return. A storm system will begin to influence the area late Thursday into the weekend. Here’s the latest thinking from NWS Nashville:
Some random showers have continued to move through the Middle Tennessee area this afternoon, but the majority of us should stay dry through the early evening hours tonight. After midnight, expect for showers to move into our area.
Light showers are expected through the overnight hours into Monday morning. The HRRR model predicts light rain Monday morning:
Showers and gusty winds (up to 30 mph) on Monday will be a good indicator of warm south winds, ahead of our next cold front.
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