Monday
Looking at a high of 92º today with a heat index in the mid-to-upper 90ºs. popcorn shower and storms. Not everyone will see one, but if you do, be prepared for heavy rain and gusty winds. Chance of rain is at 30%.
Typical Summer Week Ahead, feat. Rain
Rain This Week. Some Of Us Need It.
I found my contact. It fell on the floor. I washed it then located my glasses.
That mid-afternoon thunderstorm did this:
Lighting strike in Wedgewood Houston pic.twitter.com/I6ZRoLoXPC
— Kyle Yates (@kyledyates) August 5, 2018
Humidity Up, Afternoon Rain, Thunderstorm Possible.
I’m writing via Chromebook in an Atlanta hotel. Not optimal. I’ll be light on graphics this morning.
Today’s dewpoint will climb close to 70. That’s near-oppressive humidity.
Today’s high is 93. Add that to a more humid airmass and you get a heat index up to 97 this afternoon.
Hot This Evening, Rain Chances Return Sunday and Through Mid-Week
Hot This Afternoon
At the 4:00 pm observation at BNA this afternoon, the temp was 94° with a dewpoint of 62°. It’s hot! Temps should cool to 72° tonight with rain chances very low, although a few spotty showers aren’t out of the question.
Typical Nice August Weekend; Rain Next Week?
Rising Temps
Temps and humidity will rise this afternoon. High today 91º, with dew points remaining in the mid to upper 60°s. That’s not oppressive humidity. Pretty much normal for early August.
This weekend will be hot, humid, and mostly dry.
Decreasing Rain Chances Today/Tomorrow; Hot Temperatures Return This Weekend
High temps will stick close to 87° today, dewpoints are holding steady in the upper range of uncomfortable.
Dodging Showers
We’ll experience a typical hot, humid, summertime storm pattern today. The HRRR (below) has a few storms going up over Davidson and Williamson counties in the early afternoon.
Walking the Rain/Dry Line
If you were mostly east of I-65, you got some OK rain overnight. Cocorahs observations:
Today we’re stuck on the line between wet and dry.
Rain is happening to our east, divided by a surface front over Middle Tennessee. Sinking air (shown by yellow arrows below) has set up west, behind the front, harshing our rain vibe.
Rain Possible Today & Tomorrow; Heating Trend Begins Friday
Skies will be cloudy for much of the day. Good news: clouds will keep our high temp from soaring. High temps in the mid 80°s and dewpoints in the upper 60°s.
GOES-16 Low-Level Water Vapor Imagery shows low pressure slowly swirling over the Midwest (near St. Louis). It’s pulling moisture straight up into Tennessee, keeping our storm chances high.
Off and On, Hit or Miss Rain Tonight and Overnight
At noon, satellite showed a weak weather system brewing to our west.
It’s moving this way.
Rain is likely later today and tonight. Showers will be hit or miss. Expect unequal distributions of rain in both our counties, and in Middle Tennessee as a whole.
Nice Today, Rain Tomorrow & Tuesday
Sunday will be fantastic. Low 60° dewpoints mean another day of low-for-summer humidity. The temperature will cooperate (High 90°).
Rain & Higher Humidity Return Monday
Rain Monday and Tuesday is coming from the Plains.
Timing
That’s ^^^^ the HRRR model running through midnight tonight. Today’s storms in Oklahoma and Nebraska will shift east and weaken, but a few showers may survive the journey so don’t be surprised if you wake up to wet pavement.
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