Sunday will be fantastic. Low 60° dewpoints mean another day of low-for-summer humidity. The temperature will cooperate (High 90°).
Rain & Higher Humidity Return Monday
Rain Monday and Tuesday is coming from the Plains.
That’s ^^^^ the HRRR model running through midnight tonight. Today’s storms in Oklahoma and Nebraska will shift east and weaken, but a few showers may survive the journey so don’t be surprised if you wake up to wet pavement.
And we might battle a few showers during the morning commute.
The system will regenerate in Middle Tennessee Monday afternoon and evening, making rain.
ETAs, as always, are fuzzy. Models give us this idea:
- NSSL model thinks 4 PM to 5 PM:
- The NAM3 model predicts 9 PM to 10 PM.
- Officially, NWS-Nashville lists a “chance” showers and storms during the afternoon. Chances improve to “likely” by 7 PM Monday, continuing through the night. “Likely” here means “more likely than not.” It does not mean “definitely.” “Likely” leaves room for uncertainty.
Strong storms are possible. Lightning and heavy rain are the most likely storm impacts.
Wind and hail cannot be ruled out. But it’s pretty unlikely.
Dewpoints rising close to 70° will provide storm fuel. A surface low passing close by will bring shear. Both are necessary ingredients to make thunderstorms. Storm strength may depend on how close that surface low gets. If it’s close, storms will strengthen, but not that much, really.
The Storm Prediction Center is not impressed. They figure a 5% probability of severe weather happening within 25 miles of you Monday through Monday night.
We’ll be watching and tweeting, as usual.
Rain Continues into Tuesday
The NAM3 model keeps rain going overnight Monday into Tuesday morning…
…then it shuts off the rain early Tuesday morning. ORLY?
Why? Two models disagree with it.
The respected Euro model keeps rain going off and on, all day Tuesday. Total rainfall around 1″. Some in Middle Tennessee (us possibly) could see “training storms” bringing 2″ or more. The GFS model agrees with the Euro.
So plan for rain Tuesday morning, afternoon, and evening, but not all times, and not all the time. Exact hour-by-hour “will it or won’t it rain” is not knowable, but uncertainty will decrease some tomorrow. Check back with us in case models come to consensus and the forecast changes.
Rain brings cloud cover, so only 82°!
Wednesday & Beyond
Back to “heat of the day” thunderstorms popping up in random places.
Mid/upper 60°s dewpoints:
Categories: Forecast Blogs