Keep your plants covered.

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BNA should hit freezing Wednesday morning.

  • Your backyard will probably dip into the mid/upper 20°s around sunrise Weds morning. (BNA runs hot on cold fall/winter mornings).
  • Thursday morning: also freezy.

Warm up weekend, near eighty.

No rain in sight. The Mississippi River at Memphis is at its lowest depth since 1954.

Drought isn’t just local. Much worse west. Mississippi River receiving little water. read more

Three Frozen Mornings Incoming

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  • Protect plants and pipes.
  • Freezing mornings Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday.
  • Temps should drop into the upper 20°s for most of us.
  • Coldest Wednesday morning.

A Freeze Warning is in effect officially from 1 AM to 9 AM Tuesday. Coldest temps will happen around sunrise.

Frost and freeze conditions will kill crops, other sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. read more

Freeze Watch Tuesday Morning

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Little bit of rain coming today, meh.

  • off and on and light
  • about a tenth of an inch total
  • “heaviest” this afternoon/earlier tonight, maybe a lightning strike or two
  • I’m keeping my maybe a little soggy, so what plans, this is meh, here’s the HRRR because that’s what we do:

⚠️ Early Tuesday morning Freeze Watch . . .

Frost and freeze conditions could kill crops, other sensitive vegetation, and possibly damage unprotected outdoor plumbing. read more

Some No Big Deal Weekend Rain, Then 🥶 Mornings This Week

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Probably won’t rain today. Not totes sure about that but I’m keeping my outdoor plans.

  • A few models think some of us will see a few light mid afternoon showers.
  • Most models think no rain.
  • Latest HRRR run has it all just missing us 👇🏽

Rain expected Sunday.

  • Off and on.
  • Average rainfall 0.1″ won’t dent our drought.
  • Some areas should get more than 0.1″, others less.
  • Few thunderstorms possible (more likely in the afternoon) but nothing severe.
  • Meh.

Frozen Tuesday-Wednesday-Thursday mornings incoming. Below chart shows lows around freezing. Most local backyards get a bit colder than official lows so expect below freezing temps 👇🏽: read more

Red Flag Warning: No Outdoor Burning Today

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Fires may spread quickly out of control because

  • of winds 5-15 MPH, gusting to 25 MPH,
  • while the air is super dry with relative humidity approaching 20%, and
  • the ground remains super dry despite Weds night rain. We remain in drought.

The Warning expires at 7 PM.

Late Saturday into Sunday rain looks meh, off and on. Total under 0.20″ won’t dent drought.

🌩️ Few thunderstorms possible Saturday but the meh severe risk is in that dark green way west of us Saturday 👇🏽 read more

Today’s Afternoon/Evening Severe Weather Potential

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Some light showers this morning – no worries with these.

🕜 General ETA for main line of storms is 4-7 PM –> HRRR model thinks 5-6 PM (This could very easily change, stay connected!)

🕜 NAM3k model thinks storms in front of the line arrive 6-7 PM, while the main line gets here around 10-11 PM. (Majority of models lean toward the HRRR solution, ETA of 4-7PM is more likely, but it is unwise to discount any model). read more

Liquid Cloud Discharge Potential Thursday

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What’ll be a 31 day streak without 0.02″+ of rain might end Thursday morning.

🗣️ Wait, what was that about “might“?

  • It’s still a bit sus. Rain misses us in the last two Euro model runs, it goes east. (Makes sense, the good “moisture return” is east).
  • GFS disagrees, delivers streak-breaking rain 👇🏽

🗣️ Which one is right?

National Blend of Models thinks rain totaling 0.4″, so I guess go for that? I’m not betting on anything. We need the higher res models to get into range Tuesday to get a grip. read more