If I were to put “summer” in all caps, bold, underline, and italics, that’s what today will feel like. SUMMER. Heat index will almost reach 100, there is pretty much no chance of rain. At the time of writing this, we are not predicted to reach the heat index needed to issue a heat advisory (105), but we are very close. Highs in middle TN will vary in the 90s, and Nashville could hit 98.
Not a super wet Tuesday with only a couple scattered showers for this afternoon/evening. HRRR has storms popping in late afternoon and should be out of the area by 9pm. These storms may include lighting so lookout for that. Also expect quick downpours and gusts of winds. Will you get rained on? No one really knows. Rain is more likely south of 40 than north of 40. But either area could get rained or stormed on.
The NWS Blend of Models thinks our heat index will get to 101° this afternoon. That’s in the shade!
Dewpoint around 73° to 74° this afternoon.
Models thought we would see a line of storms here mid afternoon. That was yesterday’s models. Today it shows that line south of us. Some of us will probably see a few showers/storms pop off this morning (we have one already in Brentwood/Nolensville) and/or this afternoon from a weak upper level boundary, but the meat of the system should be south of us if the HRRR is right.
Air quality is improving. Most of the wildfire smoke cleared. It’s heavier northwest and southeast of us.
Today expect a miserable combination of temps and dewps. Like walking out into a tropical rainforest. NWS-Nashville issued the below Special Weather Statement for the heat. See below. Heat exhaustion is likely for those who ignore basic hydration, rest, and shade.
Temperatures will be in the low 90s. The dew points will be in the high 60s – low 70s.
The HRRR (below) is showing no showers during the day. There is a small chance of a couple of pop-up showers in the late night hours.
Early morning fog will have cleared by the time you are reading this, but only to give way to hazy skies we’ve gotten used to.
Wildfires are still raging in the Western US and Canada. Upper level winds are still transporting smoke all the way to our area. Today is probably the last day you can expect a Tatooine-esque sunrise or sunset. Smoke levels will start to decrease after this morning.
Our smoke is coming from two large wildfires in California. Maybe some Canadian smoke mixed in. Winds aloft have picked it up and blown it a few thousand miles.
It’s making sunrises and sunsets red. Feels equal parts unsettling and fascinating.
We have reached the end of the rain! We’re staying dry for today and tomorrow. Any blips of storms on the models stay south of us. There is not much of a chance for those to develop throughout the afternoon time and affect us.
Rain continues south of us today. We may see an upper level low spin a few showers in here this afternoon along and south of I-40. Nothing like yesterday, though. Here’s the HRRR model:
Our soil is saturated so WPC included those generally along and south I-40 in it’s 5% to 10% probability of flash flooding. Meh, but something to watch.
Heavy rain got many of us this weekend. Others, not so much. Today the rain is more likely in southern Middle Tennessee. Notice the HRRR model, below . . .
. . . it’s got a few downpours south of I-40 today. Those north: nothing.
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