Nice Weather + Drought Improvement!

New drought monitor came out today – shoutout last weeks rain!

All of Davidson Co. and a chunk of WillCo. have been downgraded to Abnormally Dry, so congratulations to those folks, you are technically no longer in a drought.

A good portion of WillCo. remains under a Moderate Drought, but we are headed in the right direction.

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February has greeted us with nice weather, with even nicer weather to come.

Highs up in the low 60s(!) Friday and Saturday, paired with dry weather. Chef’s kiss. Is it February or March?

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Rain chances Sunday/Monday look very meh. Models question whether moisture will make it this far north. Very little rain expected. Timing should become clearer in the coming days.

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Good End to January, Even Better Start to February

Twas a chilly day, but at least it was a dry one.

As we turn the page to February, we’ll be greeted with mild high temperatures and dry weather. High temps near 60° tomorrow and getting into the low 60s Friday and Saturday. Kinda weather when you’ll need a jacket in the morning, then have to carry it in the afternoon.

No rain chances to speak of until Sunday morning. Nothing concerning, just some rain. Totals look on the lighter side, 0.25″ – 0.5″.

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Nice Warm Up Coming

A “cold” front pushed thru earlier and brought some of us a few quick, light showers. A few more showers are possible the remainder of the night, but we’ll be dry for the most part.

Rest of the work week will be dry, gradually warming up throughout the week. Even getting up into the low to mid 60s by Friday + Saturday.

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Rain chances don’t return until Sunday. No severe/winter weather worries. Rainfall totals look to be around 0.5″.

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Not Much Except Maybe Some Sprinkles Tuesday PM

In this sense, no news is good news, and this week there is not a lot of news.

Chilly day today, we did not make it to the 40° mark.

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Tomorrow we’ll be a bit warmer with high temps in the mid 50s. A quick shower is possible Tuesday evening/night.

HRRR model (above) shows the possibility of a quick shower, not everyone will see rain. If you do see rain, it would be quick and light.

That’ll be our only rain chance this week until maybe Sunday, too far to tell.

Temperatures remain around what we’d expect for this time of year.

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Chili Nights, Clipper System Tuesday Only Possible Minor Inconvenience This Week

Pretty bland day today. Temps stayed in the low 40s all day. Perfect chili night in my humble opinion.

Easy Slow Cooker Chili (BEST Chili Ever!) - Cooking Classy

This will be a common theme throughout the week. Only rain chances to talk about would be maybe Tuesday.

EURO model (above) shows a majority of the rain missing us to the east, but a few showers are possible during the day. Nothin’ crazy.

Temperatures will remain fairly steady as we wrap up the first month of the year. We’ll be near the freezing mark most mornings, but nothing like we had a while ago…whew.

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Maybe A Strong Storm This Afternoon, Calm Week Ahead

Some showers currently moving thru, looks like we may get a small break before some more rain and maybe a strong storm?

HRRR model (above) shows an ETA of ~3 or 4 pm for some heavier rain, and maybe some storms. One or two storms could be on the stronger side with some gusty winds. We’ll keep an eye out, stay connected this afternoon.

We could see some lingering showers Sunday morning, but majority of the day should be dry.

Upcoming week, temps will be seasonal and no real rain chances to discuss. Nice break from any crazy weather.

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One More Rainy Day Before A Nice Break

Today ’twas a lovely day for late January, dry and highs got up in the mid 60s.

Glorious GIF by Macklemore

Unfortunately, this weather cannot last forever, and rain chances return tomorrow.

HRRR model (above) shows three rounds of rain tomorrow:

  • wee hours of Saturday morning thru mid-morning
  • break around lunch, before more rain during the afternoon/evening
  • one final push of rain lateeeee at night

No severe weather concerns. You may hear a rumble of thunder, and I suppose we could see an isolated case of a low-lying, flood-prone area seeing some minor flooding, but I think for the most part we should avoid any major disruptions. Your outdoor plans may fall victim tho, ~ 1″ of rain expected.


Sunday, we dry out and get to experience some nice, calm, weather. No legit rain chances currently in the forecast until later in the week. Temps will be tolerable.

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Dry Friday, Wet Saturday, Then Calmer Weather

We got some more beneficial rain today. Also, new drought monitor came out today.

We are still in a Moderate to Severe drought. Granted, this does not include the rain we received today and yesterday. Hopefully next Thursday we can get a positive update.

Some more manageable rain is expected Saturday, rainouts possible unfortunately.

HRRR model (above) shows a round of rain moving in Saturday AM, a little break around lunch, with some additional rain Saturday afternoon. No severe or flooding concerns. Rain totals will likely end up around 1″ or so, putting your outdoor plans in jeopardy.

Sunday we’ll dry out and will be able to enjoy a quiet start to the week.

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More Manageable Rain Thursday + Saturday

We got some decent rainfall today, enough for a good soak, but escaped any flooding worries thankfully.

We’ll continue the trend of receiving manageable rain tomorrow, but with a very low-end chance of a strong storm with some damaging straight-line winds.

0.5 – 1.5″ of additional rainfall is possible tomorrow, we should be able to handle that just fine. If caught under a thunderstorm, a few places could see a little more than that.

NWS Nashville has circled the area (red circle above) in which they think one or two strong storms could be possible with some damaging wind threat. Although a majority of that area is to our south and east.

Timing:

The HRRR model (above) shows some showers arriving during the AM commute, a break, then more rain around lunchtime. The rain around lunchtime would be the time we could see some thunderstorms, and potentially some gusty winds. Technically we are not outlooked for any severe weather right now, but worth keeping an eye on.

Maybe one more shot at some light showers Thursday around sunset.

Friday looks dry, more rain moves in Saturday, rain totals look around 0.5 – 1″ right now. Not worried about any severe weather currently but could rainout some outdoor plans during the day.

Although it was a wet day, we did manage to get up to 61° today, which felt great. We’ll stay on the mild side throughout the remainder of the work week.

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Rain Expected to be “Manageable” Throughout the Week

We’ve received a little rain today, not much, but there’s more to come.

  • 2 – 3″ of rain is expected thru Saturday
  • majority of the rain will fall Wednesday
  • we are excluded from the Flood Watch (heaviest rain expected to stay to our south)
  • “Areas north of the Flood Watch could see nuisance flooding issues, but the total rainfall amounts over that area are expected to be manageable…” – NWS Nashville
  • no severe weather expected, some thunder possible

Timing:

We should remain dry thru the rest of today, maybe a scattered shower or two.

HRRR model (above) shows some rain arriving Wednesday morning, with the bulk of it coming Wednesday afternoon. Some more rain should swing around Thursday morning. Timestamp is in the upper left corner.

Weather Prediction Center still has both of our counties included in at least a 15% chance of flash flooding with 25 miles for Wednesday. The heaviest rainfall is expected to be to our south, but this will have to be watched.

With recent snow melting, runoff from the rain may cause minor flooding issues, especially in the more flood-prone areas. If you do come across a flooded road, turn around, don’t drown.

Small Decisions can have a big impact: Flooding. 1) Turn around and don't drive through a flooded roadway. 2) Don't drive around barricades. 3) Delay travel until conditions improve. Don't let a bad decision be your last.

Friday looks like we should get by with a dry day, with more rain returning Saturday.

High temps are expected to reach the 60s(!!!) Wednesday – Saturday. I forgot what it feels like.

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