Muggy Monday With Rain On The Way

Current Radar

It will be a muggy Monday under a mostly cloudy. The high temperature will climb to 81° this afternoon with a dew point in the sticky upper 60s.

The surface low that is currently in the Gulf of Mexico is pumping in lots of moisture into our area today.

g13.2015271.1345_smMGM_vis

The HRRR model predicts a large complex of showers with some thunderstorms moving north. But, notice how it doesn’t want to form much/any rain over us.

Here is what the NAM4 model has after lunchtime:

hires_ref_nashville_10

Showers will continue throughout the afternoon into the evening hours. Take it easy on the work commute.

hires_ref_nashville_17

For tonight, we may hear a few rumbles of thunder. Moisture from the low in the Gulf will continue to move in while an upper level low will help development of thunderstorms through the overnight. None will be strong or severe, but overnight heavy rainfall looks increasingly likely.

The QPF shows the amount of rain (in inches) we will be receiving today through Tuesday night.  We are expected about an inch here in Nashville with some locally heavier amounts.

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Tuesday Looks Dreary

The high temperature will be slightly cooler due to overcast skies – topping out at 78°.

Dew points will be in the hairdo ruiner stage.

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The morning commute looks like a wet one as the complex of showers continues to push north over our area. The models show the complex of showers over us during the morning commute. It looks like there will not be a break in the rain until the late evening on Tuesday.

A cold front is expected to pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The winds will pick up a bit on Wednesday morning into lunchtime, ranging from 10 to 15 mph. There will not be a huge difference in dew points on Wednesday though. They will stay in the upper 60s throughout the day with a high of 75°. There will be a few isolated showers on Wednesday, but the chance will quickly decrease late afternoon into the evening.

You will really feel a difference by Thursday morning after the cold front. The drier air will begin to filter its way into the area with winds out of the north really bringing in the drier air.

Here is your extended forecast: The sun will return on Thursday with awesome conditions! Less humidity is on the way with a cooling trend as we end the week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

More Tropical Moisture Arriving

Current Radar

Eclipse viewing looks poor tonight, although we may see a few breaks in the clouds.

We may see rain arrive after midnight, but models think it’ll break up upon arrival.

TROPICAL SYSTEMS BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN, High Monday 81°

Check out the system coming our way from the south:

Our NWS forecasts cloud cover all day Monday. The models aren’t much help regarding rain timing. HRRR has a nice soaking rain in the morning. NAM4 holds that off until Monday night. Other models are a mess, so we’ll probably only see a few passing showers, but forecast confidence on this isn’t very good.

Rain is likely Tuesday (high 81°), when better rain/storm moisture should be arriving. 

This should be a soaker, but not a flooder. For the first time in a while, thunderstorms are possible:

Severe weather doesn’t really look likely.

Rain chances should slowly wind down Wednesday.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Not Shaking The Rain Anytime Soon

Current Radar

CLOUDY, A LITTLE MORE RAIN TODAY, High 80°

It’s been a soggy few days. Even though we’re not yet done with the rain, I feel a liiiiitle bit better about today.

Yesterday’s mid/upper level low (which created the rain) has moved north and washed out. Today there’s another system in the northern Gulf of Mexico coming our way:

The latest run of the HRRR model has very few, tiny showers coming up from Alabama:

We don’t see any downpours in the HRRR model, but the NAM4 model thinks we may see a small downpour at 5 PM:

Yesterday 0.50″ of rain fell in the official gauge at the airport, wildly exceeding expectations, but most community gauges only saw between 0.10″ and 0.20″. Today, we expect half that.

No lightning or high winds expected today.

Colts at Titans, Noon, & Pilgrimage All Day

Expect 78° and overcast/broken skies. I would pack/purse a poncho for the Titans and for Pilgrimage.

 

Supermoon Eclipse

I don’t think we will get to see it. HRRR model has us completely overcast:

The NAM4 model is trying to clear us out, but if the model verifies, we’ll be obstructed.

THE WORK WEEK: MORE RAIN

Deeper moisture will arrive from the Gulf of Mexico. That’ll increase rain chances Monday and especially Tuesday.

Thunderstorms are possible Monday, and maybe even “likely” Tuesday. Severe weather looks unlikely.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

No Washouts This Weekend, Have Rain Gear Within Reach

Current Radar

LIGHT, OCCASIONAL RAIN TODAY

It doesn’t look too bad to be outside.

It’ll be overcast all day, for sure. High only 73°.

Current conditions:

There will be at least a little rain, but it should be the light, even drizzly variety.

HRRR model seems to have a good handle on this:

Let me zoom that in a little more:

The bulk of the heavier rain stays east. Then a few light drizzlers pop up this afternoon. Thunderstorms are not in the forecast all weekend.

Have an umbrella/rain jacket close by, and remember, the high is only 73°, so dress accordingly. Lots of stuff happening outside this Saturday. Enjoy it.

RAIN ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN SUNDAY, High 79°

Fog will reduce visibility in the pre-dawn hours.

The low pressure system should have pulled far enough north of us to substantially reduce our rain chances. Although clouds will still be around and there remains a chance of a passing shower, Sunday will be the driest day of the Friday/Saturday/Sunday group.

Titans kickoff: 77°, light SE winds, small chance of a quickly passing random light shower.

Supermoon Eclipse

I’m a little more encouraged, but I don’t feel good about being able to see it. Although the cloud-creating low is pulling out, and the NAM4 model shows some breaks in the clouds by 7 PM …

… I just don’t think we’ll get there. Here’s cloud cover at 7 PM via the GFS model:

So, maybe a few breaks in the clouds, but it will likely make for a frustrating, but probably impossible, viewing.

Next Week: Chance of Thunderstorms Returns

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain Update!

Current Radar

LIGHT, INTERMITTENT RAIN TONIGHT

At the risk of making too many analogies, the upper level low is, as I write this, spinning in a Reverse Sherman — working its way from Atlanta to Chattanooga.

The NW quadrant of the low is producing Crazy Ivan showers, all in compliance with what the models said they’d do, which is refreshing. Showers will continue off and on, working from east to west, before probably reducing in coverage later tonight.

Here’s how HRRR thinks the evening and wee hours will go:

Notice that last frame, at 5 AM, more showers filling the queue in east Tennessee. Those may spin on in here, but we’ll need to switch models to get an idea for Saturday.

LITTLE MORE RAIN SATURDAY Wake Up 62° High 77°

The NAM4 model spreads a few waves of 60-to-90-minute-long light showers throughout the day.

The HRW-N&A models spread even less rain, off and on (mostly off), throughout the day. The GFS is following this drier trend.

Officially, NWS has us down for 0.16″ of rain through 7 PM Saturday, which is more than those last two models suggest. For good reason – the last frame of that HRRR model suggests more precip will be coming than HRW/GFS models suggest.

Some areas will get more rain than others, but right now the scattered/broken presentation of the rain is such that pinpointing a location for more/less is a waste of time. So is trying to get rain on/rain off times correct for tomorrow.

Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy, and occassionally rainy. I’m planning on soccer and baseball and Pilgrimage, and you should too.

I’ll get up at an hour God designed for sleep to check the radar and HRRR, in hopes of catching this greased pig of a rain forecast.

LITTLE MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY – Early Birds: 64°, High: 80°

The rainy pattern will remain, but it should be winding down Sunday. This should be the driest of the three days.

Be ready for a little more rain if you’re Titans tailgating.

Supermoon Eclipse

Sunday night, y’all.

I’m still concerned about clouds obstructing Supermoonmania. Even more concerned than I was last night. Maybe a few breaks in the clouds, but ugh, I’m not happy about this, space fans.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Light Rain Starts This Afternoon

Current Radar

RAIN TODAY High: 77°

Check out the radar above, and the water vapor below. Behold the swirl to our southeast.

It’s going to rain a little this afternoon and tonight.

HRRR thinks the rain will arrive by mid/late afternoon.

This is nuisance, intermittent rain, but it’s probably enough to pull your elementary school palooza indoors, and wear the longer cleats for HS football. Gather umbrellas and rain jackets if outside tonight, but do not expect a lot of rain.

Updated rain totals from NWS are 0.05″ through 7 PM tonight, and an additional 0.06″ through sunrise tomorrow morning. Given our dry September, this probably won’t be enough to rain out ball games Saturday.

LITTLE RAIN ON SATURDAY – Early Birds: 62°, High: 76°

Clouds will hang around all day, and light showers will continue off and on throughout the day.

Another 0.10″ is expected, but most of the day will be just cloudy, with passing drizzly/light showers lasting an hour or few hours each. Each model has its own idea on ETAs, but to detail that here will only confuse rather than inform. Some models have very little rain, others present a less intermittent picture. None of it is particularly helpful or reliable, other than that’s is going to rain a little.

If you’re going outside, have a rain jacket. We aren’t expecting any thunderstorms or strong winds, and downpours are very unlikely.

Again, most of the day will be cloudy, so have a rain jacket or umbrella within reach, and go about your day.

I almost prefer this to low 90°s and sunburn. especially when hearing good music.

LITTLE MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY – Early Birds: 64°, High: 80°

The rainy pattern will remain, but it should be winding down Sunday. This should be the driest of the three days.

Be ready for a little more rain if you’re Titans tailgating.

Supermoon Eclipse

Sunday night, y’all.

I’m still concerned about clouds obstructing Supermoonmania. Even more concerned than I was last night.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Occasional Light Rain + Pilgrimage, Titans, Supermoon Update

Current Radar

RAINY FRIDAY – Early Birds: 63°, High: 75°, Sunrise: 6:37 AM

Rain appears likely Friday. It won’t be steady, and it won’t be much.

There’s slight disagreement with the models about when it will start.

Let’s start with the early one, the NAM4, which has a “too-soon” bias. It says 6 AM.

The HRRR probably has a better handle on it. Here it is, taking us through Friday 9 AM (below).

It’s worth noting the global models (GFS & Euro) arrive the rain in the afternoon, but I like a mid-morning ETA.

The rain will be light, and off and on, all day.

Rainfall totals should be low because the rain will be light and intermittent. NWS has us down for 0.05″, which isn’t enough rain to ruin anything, other than to make a seat wet.

“Abnormally Dry” conditions have crept into northern Davidson County already. We can handle a little rain.

LITTLE RAIN ON SATURDAY – Early Birds: 64°, High: 80°

Both the Euro and GFS models think that more coverage of showers will push our way, as the low moves just a little further to the west.

However, rain totals look seriously unimpressive all day:

The Euro and GFS models seem to agree on this; however, the NAM model thinks rain will be scarce during the day Saturday.

Thinking we’ll see a little bit more rain Saturday vs Friday, maybe 0.15″, but that will vary (and probably be much less) based on where you are.

The rain won’t be steady or continuous, but you’ll want an umbrella or rain jacket if you’re going to be outside for any length of time. No thunderstorms are expected, so proceed with outdoor baseball, soccer, and Pilgrimage.

 

LITTLE MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY – Early Birds: 64°, High: 80°

As the low picks up and moves north Sunday, it will leave behind some moisture, keeping rain chances in for our Sunday.

Once we get a good look at this low tomorrow and Saturday, we’ll have a better handle on Sunday. Right now we think the off/on pattern will stay, with less rain Sunday than Saturday. It’ll be a light rain event when the switch is “on,” no thunderstorms expected, but be ready if you’re Titans tailgating, and revel in the lack of hospitality shown the Stanford Gentleman coming down from Indianapolis.

Supermoon Eclipse

Sunday night, y’all.

We’re worried about clouds obstructing the view. NWS grids our skies as “broken,” which is bad news for Supermoonmania. All is not lost, though. There’s time for this forecast to change.

Next Week — If a disturbance in the Gulf holds, it could stream more moisture our way by next week. Stay tuned.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Dry Today, Rain Chances Return Tomorrow & This Weekend

Current Radar

This Evening – 79° by 7 PM 

Sunset: 6:41 PM 

By the evening hours, more and more cloud cover will begin to creep in from the east:

However, the possibility for some rain won’t arrive until tomorrow.

FRIDAY – Early Birds: 63°, High: 79°

Sunrise: 6:37 AM

As an area of low pressure along the east coast scoots north and west tomorrow, it’ll continue to push cloud cover our way.

But, it’ll also bring us a chance for some showers:

The GFS model thinks rain chances arrive after noon.

However, there remains emerging, and maybe significant, suggestion from other models that this rain may arrive sooner than previously expected, and try to rain out our Friday.

The NAM4 model thinks so:

This model is prone to overdoing the rain, but when looking at the HRRR model through Thursday night into Friday at 2 AM (below), it may be that the NAM4 model is on to something:

Then, at 1252 PM today, our NWS started to account for it:

So, it’s time to start thinking about light rain arriving Friday mid-morning, then going off/on through the day.

SATURDAY – Early Birds: 64°, High: 80°

Both the Euro and GFS models think that more coverage of showers will push our way, as the low moves just a little further to the west.

However, accumulation looks seriously unimpressive all day:

As the low picks up and moves north Sunday, it will leave behind some moisture, keeping rain chances in for our Sunday.

If a disturbance in the Gulf holds, it could stream more moisture our way by next week. Stay tuned.

Extended: Small Chance of Showers Each Day 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Sweaty Fall: One More Day

Current Radar

Sweaty Fall Is Still Here, Why So Hot?

87° in fall is not unconscionable, but it is unacceptable.  Still, it’s way better than winter, which is a horrible season and if you disagree we cannot be friends with me and Paul.

86° Thursday

Because science, Michael. Don’t worry, this “sunny and mid-80°s” won’t last long.

Sneaky Rainy Forecast Friday?

NWS has introduced a teeny tiny chance of rain as early as Friday morning, but the better chance is in the evening. Even that chance is low.

Why? Our hot and dry making ridge is leaving.

It’s being replaced by an upper level low currently spinning along the Florida coast. Kinda hard to see here on water vapor imagery unless you’re a weather nerd and already looked at the 850-500 mb charts:

Just know that white means wet. The upper level low is causing it.

Anyway, the low will start to move up the east coast, while noone’s favorite, the inverted surface trough, develops across middle Tennessee from east Tennessee. Hence our weak rain chances.

We may see the effects of this Friday night. Maybe a sprinkler. No worries about HS football.

What About the Weekend?

Cloudy, intermittent light rain/drizzle. Forecast soundings indicate scant moisture and meh instability, which means no thunderstorm threat. We think the entire weekend will be mostly cloudy, which will dampen temperatures into the low 60°s in the morning and low 80°s in the afternoon.

Your crap app may be saying rain, but we think it’ll be off and on, mostly off, and very little.

Right now, I don’t think we have a good handle on the timing (models still in low-temporal resolution range), but we think the most likely time frame for a little rain will be Saturday night.

Soccer, Baseball, Pilgrimage etc all look weather-safe and fun. Just have a light rain jacket close by, which you probably won’t need for most of the day. Sunday looks just as off-and-on as Saturday, so be ready Titans tailgators.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

The First Day of Fall!

Current Radar

Say hello to fall!

The Fall Equinox was at 3:22 AM this morning, which is when the sun shines directly over the equator. Equinox is latin for equal days and equal nights.

Even though we welcome the fall season, it isn’t necessarily going to feel like fall. We are still wedged in between the a trough and ridge. Humidity has increased today with dew points in the upper 50s this afternoon.

The high temperature this afternoon will be 86° with winds out of the northeast, but fairly calm. There will be a few clouds in the area.

The overnight low will be 61°.

The humidity will increase on Thursday with a dew point in the low 60s by lunchtime.

hires_dew2m_nashville_49

The high temperature will be slightly warmer – reaching 87° under a mostly sunny sky.

Friday a complex of clouds will roll on in, so temperatures will be cooler with a high only reaching 83°. Dew points to the east are expected to drop to upper 40s on Friday morning. The models have cloud cover increasing on Friday with a few isolated showers mainly east and north of our area.

The good news is expect less humidity on Friday with dew points only reaching the upper 50s in the afternoon.

This Weekend. A complex of showers will stay mainly east of our area. However, some isolated showers are not out of the question for Saturday morning and afternoon. There seems to be some clearing in the evening hours.

The below NWS forecast looks rainy:

Screen Shot 2015-09-23 at 10.43.01 AM

But notice this is 20%. The models think rain is possible, but it’ll be light, and rare.

The Euro model calls for off/on (mostly “off”) very light rain. Certainly not an impediment to outdoor games, Pilgrimage, whatever.

The GFS agrees. Very light, intermittent light rain/showers all weekend, but nothing to keep you from doing what you plan/want to do.

Even the Canadian model agrees.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.