LIGHT, INTERMITTENT RAIN TONIGHT
At the risk of making too many analogies, the upper level low is, as I write this, spinning in a Reverse Sherman — working its way from Atlanta to Chattanooga.
The NW quadrant of the low is producing Crazy Ivan showers, all in compliance with what the models said they’d do, which is refreshing. Showers will continue off and on, working from east to west, before probably reducing in coverage later tonight.
Here’s how HRRR thinks the evening and wee hours will go:
Notice that last frame, at 5 AM, more showers filling the queue in east Tennessee. Those may spin on in here, but we’ll need to switch models to get an idea for Saturday.
LITTLE MORE RAIN SATURDAY Wake Up 62° High 77°
The NAM4 model spreads a few waves of 60-to-90-minute-long light showers throughout the day.
The HRW-N&A models spread even less rain, off and on (mostly off), throughout the day. The GFS is following this drier trend.
Officially, NWS has us down for 0.16″ of rain through 7 PM Saturday, which is more than those last two models suggest. For good reason – the last frame of that HRRR model suggests more precip will be coming than HRW/GFS models suggest.
Some areas will get more rain than others, but right now the scattered/broken presentation of the rain is such that pinpointing a location for more/less is a waste of time. So is trying to get rain on/rain off times correct for tomorrow.
Tomorrow will be mostly cloudy, and occassionally rainy. I’m planning on soccer and baseball and Pilgrimage, and you should too.
I’ll get up at an hour God designed for sleep to check the radar and HRRR, in hopes of catching this greased pig of a rain forecast.
LITTLE MORE RAIN ON SUNDAY – Early Birds: 64°, High: 80°
The rainy pattern will remain, but it should be winding down Sunday. This should be the driest of the three days.
Be ready for a little more rain if you’re Titans tailgating.
Sunday night, y’all.
I’m still concerned about clouds obstructing Supermoonmania. Even more concerned than I was last night. Maybe a few breaks in the clouds, but ugh, I’m not happy about this, space fans.
This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.
Categories: Forecast Blogs