Go Vote Tomorrow

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Tonight – Rain, Weak Thunderstorms

HRRR previews our evening and the wee hours of the morning.

Notice this model thinks the rain will depart in time for the morning rush hour.

Storms tonight aren’t expected to be severe, but heavy rain and flooding in the usual spots remains possible. Lightning is likely, mostly before 8 PM.

Thursday – Clearing Out? Maybe – High 83°

Weather models disagree about whether it’ll rain beginning mid-morning through the day and into the evening.

I’m betting/hoping it’ll all clear out by noon, and we can get some good voting in.

Friday – Afternoon/Evening Rain – High 83°

Fancy weather terms With humidity still hanging around and a strong cold front arriving, scattered/numerous showers and maybe some storms will be possible Friday afternoon and evening.

Saturday, the cold air will be finally arriving, but we may see some post-frontal showers lingering during the day as the colder air filters in.  The high temp will be 69°.

Sunday looks cool and spectacular.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Here Comes Rain

Current Radar

Wednesday will be another muggy one. Dew points are expected to be a few degrees higher than yesterday. South winds are drawing in the warm, moist air from the Gulf, hence the cloud buildup.

The high temperature will climb to 86° with clouds increasing in the afternoon. Eventually an upper level trough will dig over us tonight, but before that rain chances will increase this afternoon as a surface low begins to scoot across Tennessee from the west.

Meanwhile, a line of showers and thunderstorms will be ahead of a weak cold front that will move across our area overnight into Thursday morning. Here is the NAM model after 3:00 PM:

hires_ref_nashville_11

Showers and thunderstorms will remain in the area late this evening:

hires_ref_nashville_17

 

The HRRR model is a little different:

The Storm Prediction Center has us in a general thunderstorm area; nothing severe is expected.

Screen Shot 2015-09-09 at 11.15.53 AM

Thursday’s high temperature will be 82° with a dew point in the upper 60s. That cold front from Wednesday will prove to have been fairly weak, unable to scour out the humid airmass.

Rain should continue at least through the early morning hours, and possibly beyond. Models suggest off/on rain will linger until just before sundown, clearing in time for evening outdoor activities. I wouldn’t bet on this forecast; it may clear sooner than that.

Friday we’ll be waiting for a Good Old American Fall Cold Front to arrive.

Unlike today’s approaching “cold” front, this one has muscle. It will do two things.

1.  Bring rain. The ETA on this rain is pretty fuzzy, but I like a late Friday night ETA, so think about whether you have rain gear for HS football. We’ll have a better handle on the ETA tomorrow night and Friday morning to determine if you’ll need it.

The rain should linger into Saturday, but “how long” is unclear. The Euro model is pushing a secondary wave of rain through Saturday evening, but the GFS doesn’t, so we’ll just be cool and wait for more data to arrive, hoping for a consensus opinion. The hope we had a few days ago of a glorious Saturday is fading.

NOTE: the Euro model thinks it’ll be raining in Knoxville for the Oklahoma game.

2.  Cool Us Off. This thing will scour away the humidity, dropping Sunday temps into the 50°s for early birds, 70°s in the afternoon. Dew points will crash through the 50°s into the 40°s, eliminating humidity from consideration.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

90°s Today, Storms Tomorrow

Current Radar

This Evening – 84° by 7 PM 

Sunset: 7:05 PM 

As we approach sunset, any showers left in our neck of the woods will quickly end, and we’ll stay dry through the overnight hours:

Overnight lows will fall to the low 70°s under partly cloudy skies.

Wednesday – Early Birds: 70°, High: 87°

Sunrise: 6:24 AM

Big changes arrive tomorrow as the jet stream and upper-levels of the atmosphere begin to shift into more of a “fall” pattern.

A small dip in the jet stream will allow for a cold front to pass through tomorrow, bringing us storms by the afternoon hours:

While some storms tomorrow may bring heavy rain and strong winds, the severe threat is low:

This is not a highly-organized front, and NWS even refers to it as “weak.” So, we expect showers and storms to linger through the evening and into the night:

Conditions will remain cloudy,humid, and warm overnight into Thursday morning.

Thursday – Early Birds: 68°, High: 83°

A few showers may linger into your early-morning commute Thursday, and we’ll keep a chance for storms in throughout the day:

Plenty of cloud cover will be around Thursday into Friday, helping to keep our high temperatures in the 80°s.

Another stronger cold front will arrive Saturday, and that will be the front to really drop our temperatures, lower our humidity, and clear out the cloud cover by Sunday!

Dew points in the 40° = heaven.

Extended: Keep the Umbrella Nearby 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Labor Day & This Week’s Cold Front

Current Radar

This Evening – 85° by 7 PM 

Sunset: 7:06 PM 

Once the sun sets and things begin to cool off, any shower activity will dissipate:

While it may not be a crisp September evening, it won’t be too bad. Maybe a bit sticky, but skies should be mostly clear.

Lows overnight will fall to near 70°.

Tuesday – Early Birds: 69°, High: 91°

Sunrise: 6:24 AM

Tomorrow will bring another hot afternoon, as well as another small chance at rain:

While there’s a good chance we will stay dry, that won’ be the case as we head into Wednesday.

Wednesday – Early Birds: 71°, High: 87°

By Wednesday, moisture will take a jump up, and we’ll be looking at a decent chance for storms AHEAD of a cold front projected to pass through late Wednesday into Thursday:

Right now, the severe risk is low. We will keep you updated, but expect storms to be a daily occurrence from Wednesday through the start of the weekend.

Extended: Cold Front = Good Rain Chances Through FRI

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Nice Labor Day. Not So Nice After That.

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Tonight – Isolated Storms Ongoing

More outflow boundaries are arriving late this afternoon, and may set off more showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Most showers that have initiated so far today have encountered high pressure, and have died off pretty quickly.

Labor Day – Dry Day Expected – High 92°

High pressure will squash rain chances; however, NWS has us down for a 5% chance of an isolated shower. With all the heat and humidity around, that’s smart.

The Work Week – Rain Pattern Returns

Tuesday should be mostly dry, but we’ll be watching as humidity and Gulf moisture streams into Middle Tennessee.

By Wednesday, rain and thunderstorm chances return.

On Thursday, thunderstorms are likely. Right now, NWS is calling them “active” thunderstorms. The Storm Prediction Center has not yet outlooked us for strong/severe weather. It’s premature for that. A cold front will working its way through, but differences in the models on timing has tossed too much uncertainty into the mix.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

So Hot

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Tonight – Isolated Storms Ongoing

Just like yesterday, Horizontal Convective Rolls are streaming west this afternoon, Crazy Ivan Style, and setting of a few isolated showers.

After dark these should start to die off, yielding to a hot and muggy night.

Sunday – Repeat – High 93°

Just like today: heat will lift the lid on isolated showers and a few thunderstorm by mid to late afternoon. Like a pot of boiling water, we aren’t sure when and where the first bubble will surface.

Labor Day – Drier, Only a Small Chance of Rain – High 91°

Summery. Rain chances still pretty small as high pressure tries to boss the weather, and keep rain from boiling up.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Hot, But Otherwise Pretty Good Labor Day Weekend Ahead

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Tonight – Pop Up Rain?

Horizontal Convective Rolls are streaming west this afternoon, Crazy Ivan Style, and setting of a few isolated showers. As I write, one’s already making rain in Bellevue.

We don’t know exactly when and where any other rainers will appear tonight, but after dark, any ongoing showers should die off. You’d be pretty unlucky to have your HS football game rained on. No strong thunderstorms are expected.

Saturday – Hot, Iso Shower Possible – High 94°

This summertime September pattern remains. NWS thinks most of the isolated shower activity will be well east of us, courtesy of weak upper low pressure centered over SE Georgia. But, with temps to 94° we aren’t ruling anything out.

A good day to

Sunday – Rain Chances Wee Bit Higher – High 91°

The best chance of rain all weekend will be Sunday with the arrival of more moisture/humidity.

Still, our chances are small. Just be weather aware. Can’t rule out thunderstorms, but strong storms aren’t forecast.

Conserve energy, be efficient.

Labor Day – Drier, Only a Small Chance of Rain – High 91°

Summery. Rain chances still pretty small.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

A Mostly Sunny Afternoon

Current Radar


We are going to continue in this summer-like pattern today. Friday looks mostly sunny with the same high temperature as yesterday of 95°.

 

An upper level weak trough left some energy behind over us and the 700 mb has vertical velocity potential overhead. What this means is there will be a chance of showers with a possible thunderstorm this afternoon. Non severe nor will it be a washout, but some could pop-up briefly. When looking at the HRRR model below you can really see the clockwise flow of the surface high pressure overhead.

Here is the surface analysis:

namussfcwbg

Muggy conditions will continue today with a dew point in the mid 60s this afternoon.

Saturday our high will be a whole one degree cooler – 94°. There will be an isolated chance of showers late afternoon. They will be mainly southeast of our area. Check out the NAM model below at 7:00 PM in the evening.

hires_ref_nashville_43

 

For Sunday not much has changed except for the temperature. 91° will be our high temperature with a heat index at 93°. Winds will shift from the north to out of the south by Sunday morning as surface high moves east. There will be some high and mid level clouds present in the morning throughout the afternoon. I am going to go ahead and keep an isolated shower chance for the afternoon on Sunday. Conditions will be favorable for some pop-ups in the afternoon.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Hot, Muggy, & a Tiny Chance for Rain

Current Radar

Thursday is starting off warm and muggy, but with plenty of sunshine. This will be the case for much of the day, as high pressure to our northeast keeps us in a generally pleasant, but summer-like pattern. Up in the jet stream, we have been dominated by a ridge, or just an extra extra large high pressure over the eastern U.S. Ridges aloft generally keep our weather on the hot and dry side. This has and will continue to be the case for the short term. But, there are a few small dips in the jet stream, despite the ridging pattern we have in place. These are called shortwaves, or more commonly here, disturbances. A shortwave is kind of like a mini low pressure system. They usually carry enough energy to produce rain and thunderstorms at the surface, even if there is not a surface low pressure in place. When a shortwave passes near us, that bumps up our chances for rain a bit. That’ll be the case today, as a one of these disturbances passes to our south and east: 

This could bring us some isolated showers and maybe a weak storm this afternoon and early this evening. Our high will be 93° today, so the extra heat of the afternoon could help to get some of those showers going. However, chances don’t look overly impressive, with the position of that disturbance being a bit too far east and south. The HRRR is picking up on some rain throughout the afternoon in our area, but more to the southeast of Nashville: 

As of 5 PM, there are a few showers and storms to our north on radar. They’re tiny, but you may get wet briefly if you’re out and about this evening. 

Tonight, temperatures will drop to 71° under mostly clear skies and muggy conditions. As we begin the holiday weekend on Friday, we’ll see a very similar situation to today. The morning hours will be warm & muggy, with the afternoon being plain ol’ hot. Friday’s high is also 93° and we’ll keep another small rain chance in for the afternoon hours. Another disturbance will be passing more to our south. Again, it looks like the bulk of the activity will miss us, but there is chance a lone shower drifts our way. 

 

We’ll keep the hot and muggy with a small chance of rain pattern for the weekend, as well. Highs will be in the low to mid 90°s, with overnight lows near 70°. 

Extended….

Really Extended….

We could see our first potent cold front of the season by late next week. Stay tuned. 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

High Pressure Keeping Us (Mostly) Dry

This morning, the HRRR predicted a few showers this afternoon. We’ve seen a few of those, but only west of 65. Current radar:

So, not ruling out a stray shower as the sun goes down. No rain is expected overnight.

For Thursday, our high will be 93° once again as the upper and surface high keeps its grip over us. There will be a mostly sunny sky with a dew point in the mid 60s. There will be some high clouds overhead late afternoon.

The upper level ridge continues to build over us on Thursday into Friday, keeping us hot and dry.

Not expecting any rain for the Vandy or Titans games, or LOTG, or whatever else you have shaking Thursday night. However, as we saw today, there’s a chance a shower could sneak through. It’ll be hot and humid. Hard to rule out rain.

Kicking off the end of the week warm with a high temperature of 92° on Friday. The upper ridge continues to build over us. Dry conditions continue, but cloud cover will build late afternoon.

The mostly-dry pattern breaks this weekend. We’ll be tapping more moisture, and introducing scattered showers, and a chance of thunderstorms, Saturday and Sunday. Neither days appear to be a washout; in fact, most showers look to be focused east of us and on the plateau. Too far away to determine any specifics. Stay tuned for that.