Higher Temps; Weekend Rain?

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Warming Up

Each day, the high creeps up a bit. Yesterday, we hit 84° (at 3:13 PM). Today we’ll hit 85°, Thursday 87°, and 88° by Friday.

Humidity is creeping up, too. By Friday, the dewpoint will spill over 60°, which may require an extra deodorant swipe. Please consult this handy table:

Weekend Rain?

The high pressure increasing our temps is also bossing the skies, eliminating rain chances at least through Friday.

Saturday looks almost completely rain free.

We expect a cold front to approach and arrive Sunday. As usual, this means rain is possible.

Both the Euro and GFS models think the front will either stall out here, or be a dry passage, so for now we think the chance of rain is pretty low. There is more model support for rain on Monday, but we’re talking about 144+ hours from now, and forecast accuracy that far away is

The cold front will trim the top off the temps. Low 80°s return beginning Sunday.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Chill Weather the Rest of the Week. Cooler by Sunday?

Current Radar

This Evening – 78° by 7 PM 

Sunset: 6:54 PM 

More of the good stuff tonight: clear skies, a light breeze, and humidity on the comfy end.

WEDNESDAY – Early Birds: 56°, High: 86°

Sunrise: 6:30 AM

Afternoon temps will be in the mid 80°s once again, under sunny skies.

All the moisture/humidity/uncool weather will stay well to our south:

THURSDAY – Early Birds: 59°, High: 86°

You guessed it…much of the same by Thursday.

Our high pressure will be nonchalantly trying to sneak out the back, i.e. off the east coast, by Thursday.

All good things must come to an end…

Actually, Friday looks like another alright day.

Rain chances may wander back in for Saturday as a cold front could drop our highs back to the 70°s.

Extended: Next Front on the Move by Saturday

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Dry Week Ahead

Current Radar


High pressure has a hold of us, making things pretty nice for the work week.

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The clockwise spin of the high is bringing in those southerly winds.

Tuesday – Warming Up Waking Up: 53° High: 83°

Temperatures are beginning to warm up, but don’t worry! We continue to stay under the cooler, drier airmass.

The dew point will be in the low 50s under a mostly sunny sky.

Wednesday – Dry Waking Up: 58° High: 84°

Weather continues to stay quiet while high pressure toggles overhead.

The humidity will continue to stay low with a few high clouds present during the day.

Extended: There will be a warming trend this week under sunny skies. Humidity will begin to on Thursday as dew points rise into the 60s.

Our next rain chance arrives Saturday night/Sunday.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Quiet Week Ahead; Warming Up

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

That Was Nice

We hit 73° today.

Today’s cool weather was thanks to surface high pressure to our west. Its clockwise-spinning winds sent in a chilly north wind:

We’ll Heat Up A Little More Every Day This Week

Although we’ll start off cool in the morning (low 50°), we will heat up in the afternoon, to 80° or 81°.

The reason: high pressure will set up east of us Monday, where it’ll camp for the rest of the week, returning a south wind and corresponding higher temperatures:

This will increase our temps every day this week:

Humidity Will Be Reasonable

Dewpoints will stay mostly in the 50°s.

Next Chance of Rain: This Weekend

This morning, the GFS model predicted rain Friday night. I wrote not to freak out, that was just one run of one model, it looked like the rain would come later (after watching the Euro model).

Well, now the GFS has figured something out, and is bringing the rain much later, arriving Saturday night or Sunday. Here it is on Saturday afternoon:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Fall Isn’t Here To Stay

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

We’ve Cooled Off

Today’s high is 73°, with no rain in the forecast.

Fall Isn’t Here, At Least Not Yet

It’ll be nice and cool today because surface high pressure is west of us. Its clockwise-spinning winds are sending us that chilly, north wind:

We’ll Heat Back Up, Starting Tomorrow

That high pressure will set up east of us Monday, where it’ll camp for the rest of the week, returning a south wind and corresponding higher temperatures:

Humidity Will Not Return to Oppressive Levels.

Dewpoints will stay mostly in the 50°s.

Next Chance of Rain Late Friday – Saturday

Looks like a trough will dig another cold front closer Friday night = chance of rain.

This is just one model run, so don’t draw any conclusion. The Euro model has this system about 500 miles to our NW on Friday night, but we really don’t know when.

Conclusion: next chance of rain as early as Saturday night, running into Sunday.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Little Rain Tonight, Lotta Winning Tomorrow

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Watching for A Little More Rain Tonight

The shortwave arrived this afternoon on-time and as-expected, and started spreading light rain in widely-spaced pockets around Middle TN.

That’ll continue tonight. As the base of the trough arrives, we expect a little rain, and we can’t rule out infrequent lightning, but the associated rain will be very light — and most of it should go east of us.

If going out tonight, have a light jacket, preferably one that can handle a little rain.

HRRR thinks the rain will remain possible until around midnight:

Temps Will Drop To 50° While We Sleep

The door to the cold, Canadian air will finally be open long enough for us to dip into the 50°s by 10 PM, dipping to almost-40°s while we sleep.

Easy – Sunday & Beyond: Winning

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Scattered Afternoon Rain, Weak Thunderstorms

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Saturday – Watching for A Little More Rain This Afternoon – High 70°

Yesterday’s cold front scoured out all humidity, and delivered a cool, Canadian wind.

We aren’t yet done with the rain.

This feature in eastern Iowa…

…will sharpen and dive southeast. Watch it move here:

Upon arrival, this thing will set off scattered showers, with isolated thunderstorms possible thanks to very cold temps aloft advecting in.

So, look to the north today for any showers or little thunderstorms.

We don’t think everyone will see rain, and no severe weather is expected. We’ll be on Twitter @NashSevereWx today watching for any rain this afternoon and tonight.

Meanwhile, winds will be blowing that colder air around 10 mph.

Sunday & Beyond: Winning

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

More Rain Tonight & Tomorrow? Maybe a Little

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Tonight – Few More Spits of Rain

So, bring a rain jacket or umbrella, but the lightning will be gone by dark.

Saturday – Lingering Rain? – High 71°

We should be pretty clear, although cloudy, in the morning.

As cooler, drier air pours in from the north, an upper level disturbance will swing down the back side of the departing trough. This will cloud us up and may bring intermittent rain in late morning and into the afternoon. It shouldn’t be much, but the weather models are calling for it.

NAM4:

GFS Model:

NWS even thinks a few elevated thunderstorms are possible, although that seems unlikely.

Rest of the Weekend, Next Week

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Showers Later Today, Fall Tomorrow!

Current Radar


There are a few high and mid level clouds present in our area this morning with showers west of us. Dew points will stay in the low 60s today with a high temperature reaching 83° this afternoon. We are tracking our next rain maker that will ramp up showers this afternoon and evening. (Make sure you follow us on Twitter @NashSevereWx)

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A cold front is on the way. It will set off a line of showers with thunderstorms later this afternoon and tonight.

An upper level trough will continue to dig south today while a shortwave swings through closer to the surface. Cloud cover will begin to increase after lunchtime as the front approaches. A complex of showers will build and move through after 3:00 PM. Here is what the NAM model has for late afternoon:

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The Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk of severe weather (winds) east of us.We expect mainly rumbles of thunder and heavy rainfall in some neighborhoods, lighter rainfall amounts elsewhere.

Screen Shot 2015-09-11 at 9.44.54 AM

The front will move through early Saturday morning. When waking up on Saturday – the dew point will be in the upper 50s = end of the humidity! Check out the contrast in dew points along the cold front.

The first image is the NAM model and the second image is the GFS model at 7:00 AM:

hires_dew2m_nashville_25 Screen Shot 2015-09-11 at 10.04.36 AM

That’s a much drier airmass.

The high Saturday will be 72°. Clouds will begin to clear out in the afternoon by 2:30 PM for the Vandy vs Georgia kickoff. There remains a small chance of “wrap around” showers from the north, but we think those should remain mostly east of us.

Game time temperature: 71° Dew point: 53° 

Winds out of the north will be a bit breezy after lunchtime. The northerly winds will be bringing in cooler, drier air throughout the day. After the game – temperatures will decrease and the low will be 51°. You may need a jacket by the evening. Dew points will continue to decrease as well. They will be in the upper 40s just before midnight.

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Cooler Weather on the Way…But, Not Today

Current Radar

This Evening – 78° by 7 PM 

Sunset: 7:02 PM 

Any unlikely rain shenanigans will end by this evening, with the cloud cover beginning to break up, as well:

Skies will be mostly clear overnight with lows falling to the mid 60°s.

FRIDAY – Early Birds: 66°, High: 83°

Sunrise: 6:26 AM

A second, stronger front will begin to approach tomorrow:

This will be the front to really drop our temperatures and bring us some less humid air in the coming days.

We’ll have to muddle through some afternoon showers and storms Friday and possibly into the evening hours, before the front clears and some of that cooler air arrives.

SATURDAY – Early Birds: 60°, High: 72°

Temperatures will really begin to take a tumble overnight Friday into Saturday, as that cooler air starts to seep-in:

Depending on how fast the front can move out, we’ll likely have small rain/storm chances for Saturday.

However, like today, the cloud cover will be a bit more slow to move out.

This may make for some cloudy tailgates, but they should be dry.

As clouds clear late Saturday, that’ll allow temperatures to plummet overnight. We’ll be waking up to morning temperatures in the 50°s on Sunday!

Extended: Heck. Yes. 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.