Quiet Start to Fall, but Rain Chances Return Friday

Current Radar

This Evening – 77° by 7 PM 

Sunset: 6:44 PM 

Although just a few clouds may build in throughout the day, we should have nice, clear skies by the evening hours.

A northeast breeze 5-10 mph will keep things easy and breezy throughout the rest of the night.

Overnight lows will fall to the upper 50°s.

WEDNESDAY – Happy Fall, Y’all – Early Birds: 57°, High: 86°

Sunrise: 6:35 AM

Oh yes…it’s here.

Don’t expect a sudden onset of crisp air and cooler temperatures, though.

High temperatures by tomorrow will bump up just a couple of degrees, as will our dew points.

But, it will still be a nice day, with mostly sunny skies and no rain:

THURSDAY – Early Birds: 61°, High: 84°

Even by Wednesday, some moisture will be starting to filter-in from the east, due to a low pressure system that is going to try to get itself together off the east coast:

We will see more moisture (i.e. more humidity & cloud cover) arrive Thursday. While Thursday looks to be another dry day for us, it will be a day to keep our eyes to the east and watch as this thing either gets itself together, or doesn’t.

I should note that none of the models take this potential system inland. Rather, they all move it up the east coast. What will affect our forecast is the excess moisture from the storm that could send some showers our way Friday and into the weekend. More on this below, in David’s Corner (aka the Editor’s Note).

Extended: Rain Chances Return Friday

 

Editor’s Note: A Peek at Pilgrimage

Yesterday, the GFS model looked like this for Saturday.

And, yesterday, the Euro model kinda agreed with it. It’s a shame I can’t post today’s Euro model (because laws and stuff) — this morning’s run looks wildly different. It keeps us dry all weekend. It sends the rain-maker up the east coast, and sends no precip west our way.

But, then again, the GFS is still hanging on to this idea of very light rain starting Saturday night:

Remember, what we said yesterday is still true today:

1. Specific timing is a fool’s errand. The temporal resolution of the data is in 6 hour chunks, so if the model sneezes it’ll move it this way or that way. And every time it sneezes (GFS 4x/day, Euro 2x/day), the rain is somewhere else.

2.  These systems have yet to really even form. It’s folly to bet on this forecast. These are assumptions based on assumptions and run through supercomputers.

3.  This isn’t a “storm” system, it’s a rain system. I’m not worried about a washout or thunderstorm or anything like that.

You can enter to win two 2 day passes to Pilgrimage by taking our free/easy survey here:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Nice Week Ahead, A Peek At Pilgrimage

Current Radar

This Evening – 74° by 7 PM 

Sunset: 6:45 PM 

Skies will be clear by this evening, and we’ll stay dry:

Dew points will have dropped into the comfortable range, making for a nice end to your Monday.

Overnight lows will be in the mid 50°s under clear skies.

TUESDAY – Early Birds: 55°, High: 84°

Sunrise: 6:34 AM

Tomorrow will be a nice and quiet day, with high pressure keeping a lid on any rain chances:

It’ll also keep a lid on afternoon temperatures. Highs will only reach the low 80°s.

We’ll keep the lower humidity around for another day, as well.

WEDNESDAY – Fall Begins – Early Birds: 58°, High: 85°

The Autumnal Equinox occurs at 3:22 AM central time Wednesday, marking the official start of the fall season.

Both humidity and temperatures will begin to trend back up by the middle of the week, but skies will remain sunny.

The normal high temperature this time of year for Nashville is 81°…

So, while it could always be cooler, fall will get off to a pretty nice start!

Extended: Nice Week Ahead

Editor’s Note: A Peek at Pilgrimage

After a clean and clear work week, the weather pattern shifts for the weekend.

We aren’t sure if it’ll shift us into a light rainy pattern.

Recent runs of the GFS model paint a conspiracy of upper level low pressure and surface high pressure in the “right” place to send us some light showers in a Crazy Ivan (east to west) motion by Saturday night.

Specific timing on this is a fool’s errand. The temporal resolution of the data is in 6 hour chunks, so if the model sneezes it’ll move it this way or that way.

Unlike what happened this weekend, the Euro and GFS models are…kinda…on the same page. They agree rain totals will be very low.

These systems have yet to really even form. It’s folly to bet on this forecast. These are assumptions based on assumptions and run through supercomputers.

Our NWS isn’t really impressed. The one thing we all agree on is that this isn’t a “storm” system, it’s a rain system. I can’t see anyone worried about a washout or thunderstorm or anything like that. NWS thinks the better rain chance is south of us. Rain amounts are so little that, if this even happens, no one is going to say this mini-drought is over.

You can enter to win two 2 day passes to Pilgrimage by taking our free/easy survey here:

I think we’ll do a Periscope live drawing Wednesday night.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Quiet Week Ahead

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

We hit 83° today.

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No Rain This Week

Temps will warm a bit every day. Starting Monday: 81° – 84° – 84° – 85° – 84°, then 82° on Saturday.

We Aren’t In A Drought

“Official” rainfall is 0.66 below normal since September 1, but we’re running 1.53″ above normal in 2015.

Next Chance of Rain?

I’ve been watching this very closely for several days, mostly because we’re the weather watchers for Pilgrimage next weekend. The weather models have been all over the place. First the GFS said rain, the Euro didn’t, then they flip-flopped, then on each run they were wildly inconsistent with their previous runs. Same old medium-range model shenanigans — they just aren’t as good as we want them to be. They’re unable to deliver the forecast certainty everyone thinks, but doesn’t, exist on the crap apps on your phone.

The thing to watch is an upper level low expected to develop in the Carolinas/Eastern Tennessee near the end of the week. We think that’ll be a rainmaker. The question is how far west it’ll go. Currently we think it’ll sprinkle the plateau, but with each model run, it continues to move around. Still nothing to worry about. At worst, this is just some light rain.

The Euro model has this rain FAR off to the east. Again, so much uncertainty here, I can’t believe I’ve written this much about it.

So, that’s good news for weekend activities.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Not Much Happening. So We’re Looking At When Something May Happen.

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

The radar works. There’s just nothing on it.

Another Long Dry Stretch Starts Today

Much like last week, there’s no rain in the forecast this work week.

Temps will warm daily from the low 80°s to the mid-80°s.

Starting Sunday: 80° – 81° – 84° – 84° – 85° – 84°, then 82° on Saturday.

We Aren’t In A Drought

“Official” rainfall is 0.66 below normal since September 1, but we’re running 1.53″ above normal in 2015.

Next Chance of Rain?

I’ve been watching this very closely for several days, mostly because we’re the weather watchers for Pilgrimage next weekend. The weather models have been all over the place. First the GFS said rain, the Euro didn’t, then they flip-flopped, then on each run they were wildly inconsistent with their previous runs. Same old medium-range model shenanigans — they just aren’t as good as we want them to be. They’re unable to deliver the forecast certainty everyone thinks, but doesn’t, exist on the crap apps on your phone.

This morning, NWS-Nashville wrote that “discrepancies between model solutions still remain.” So, nothing has changed. Helpful, right?

Still, NWS needs to make a forecast, and here’s they wrote this morning: “for the second half of the work week into the upcoming weekend, most of the mid-state will remain dry, with the only potential of rainfall Friday night into Saturday, and that chance will be only a slight chance of showers across the plateau counties.”

For what little it’s worth – because all of this could change – I’m encouraged. Here’s the GFS model:

It’s the Euro model that puts some light rain over the plateau — nothing for us — hence the qualifications and equivocations you’re seeing here.

So, that’s good news for weekend activities.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Cold Front is Here! Cooler, Dry Week Ahead

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

The Cold Front Is Here!

We’ll reach 79° Sunday. Temps will be in the low 80°s — with comfortable dew points — this week.

Dry Weather Ahead

All week! The coming week looks alot like this past week — dry and cool, with high temps coming up just a little each day.

This pattern looks to be the same through the first few days of October:

Next Chance of Rain?

Maybe this weekend, but it’s so far away, and the models have been so inconsistent, it’s not worth worrying about.

Even the Euro model seems to be:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

A Little Afternoon Rain (Maybe), Then Another Dry Spell

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Cold Front Arrives This Afternoon…With a Little Rain

At 11:04 AM, the cold front was entering Tennessee.

As you can see, a very weak area of showers was crawling down 24. ETA for us is mid/late afternoon…assuming it makes it.

The HRRR may be exaggerating the extent of the rain, and even it breaks it up on arrival.

Many of us may not see rain at all.

Cooler Temps, Lower Humidity, Another Run of Dry Weather Starts Sunday

Next Chance of Rain?

Maybe this weekend, but it’s so far away, and the models have been so inconsistent, it’s not worth worrying about.

Even the Euro model seems to be:

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Weekend Update!

We’ve Added a Third Member to the Team

Will and I have full time jobs. We’re married. Will has 3 kids, I have 2. We have a lot going on. For over a year we’ve been looking for someone to be the third member of @NashSevereWx. We found the perfect person.

Will and I have complete confidence in Andrew. As the weeks/months/years pass by, we are confident you will, too.

All that said, nothing will change. Just adding another chef to the kitchen. You’ll still get what you hope to get on Twitter and here on the website, whatever that is.

Hopefully more of this.

And less of this.

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Beautiful Tonight

We hit 87° this afternoon, but the dewpoint never really approached 60°, so humidity was no problem.

Tonight we’ll ease into the 70°s for a spectacular evening.

Early Morning Fog

In the usual spots. It’ll mix out quickly after sunrise.

Hopefully I wont wake up at 4 AM and tweet a Dense Dog Advisory.

High 87°, But Rain Likely Saturday

A cold front will sweep some scattered showers across Middle Tennessee in the afternoon. After some variance this morning, models like the afternoon ETA.  NAM4 is on board:

1.  As the line sweeps across, it’ll be broken (not a solid line) — so not everyone will see rain. In fact, maybe only a few of us will.

2.  This line is going to be very weak. If unlucky, you may see a brief heavy shower, but generally, rain amounts should not be enough to rain out outdoorsy stuff.

3.  A thunderstorm or two is unlikely yet possible. Nothing strong or severe is forecast.

Cold Front Clears Us Out and Cools Us Off Sunday Thru the Work Week

Dew points and temperatures will return to a Fall Is Coming pattern.

Any Long-Range Rain Concerns?

The models are all over the place and will change, but for now the next rain chance is Friday.

The Euro model is keeping us dry Friday through Sunday of next week. The GFS isn’t. This is a flip flop from yesterday, when the GFS said “dry” and the Euro model said “rain.”

Again, when it comes to far-away models:

Pilgrimage Festival Reply Finalists

So, here’s the thing. This contest is totally subjective. There are no rules. We’re just picking the one we like the best today. There were lots of weather puns and several GIFs, all very much respected and enjoyed. There were Willie Nelson and Steven Tyler jokes, heartfelt personal stories, and the classic direct approach. There were threats of frog stranglers and Adele.

The thing is, Will and I are good friends, but if we’re being honest, we are pretty different people. The things he and I both really like are pretty small. It’s probably fair to say the list consists of weather (obviously), Nashville, The Wire, and The West Wing.

https://twitter.com/bettisah/status/643990080403718144

https://twitter.com/lesleyest/status/643867306087612417

https://twitter.com/ZaneWRiggs/status/643951931933753344

Better judges would have picked a better winner. But, honestly, there was only one Omar entry (from The Wire), and we thought it was funny. The winner is:

One other thing — we have another pair to give away next week.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Rain Saturday; Pilgrimage Winner; Introducing Andrew Leeper

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Hot, Little Humid Friday & Saturday

Temps will hit 88° both days, compounded by rising humidity. Dewpoints today will top 60°, tomorrow afternoon, they’ll approach 65°. Sticky, almost uncomfortable:

Rain Possible Saturday

A cold front will sweep some scattered showers across Middle Tennessee in the afternoon, but ETAs in the models vary:

NAM4 thinks the showers will be an early-arriver:

The rest of the models expect the rain to come mid-afternoon. That’s what I expect to happen. A few things about them:

1.  As the line sweeps across, it’ll be broken (not a solid line) — so not everyone will see rain. In fact, maybe only a few of us will.

2.  This line is going to be very weak. If unlucky, you may see a brief heavy shower, but generally, rain amounts should not be enough to rain out outdoorsy stuff.

3.  A thunderstorm or two is unlikely yet possible. Nothing strong or severe is forecast.

Cold Front Clears Us Out and Cools Us Off Sunday Thru the Work Week

Dew points and temperatures will return to a Fall Is Coming pattern.

Any Long-Range Rain Concerns?

The models are all over the place and will change, but for now there are chances of rain Wednesday (well east of us) and Friday (for us).

Note, however, that two days ago the models “agreed” on our cold front arriving Sunday with rain Monday — notice that’s completely gone from our forecast. Betting/fretting on model accuracy as far out as next Friday isn’t worth it.

That said, the Euro model is keeping us dry Friday through Sunday of next week. The GFS isn’t. This is a flip flop from yesterday, when the GFS said “dry” and the Euro model said “rain.”

Again, when it comes to far-away models:

Pilgrimage Festival Reply Finalists

So, here’s the thing. This contest is totally subjective. There are no rules. We’re just picking the one we like the best today. There were lots of weather puns and several GIFs, all very much respected and enjoyed. There were Willie Nelson and Steven Tyler jokes, heartfelt personal stories, and the classic direct approach. There were threats of frog stranglers and Adele.

The thing is, Will and I are good friends, but if we’re being honest, we are pretty different people. The things he and I both really like are pretty small. It’s probably fair to say the list consists of weather (obviously), Nashville, The Wire, and The West Wing.

https://twitter.com/bettisah/status/643990080403718144

https://twitter.com/lesleyest/status/643867306087612417

https://twitter.com/ZaneWRiggs/status/643951931933753344

Better judges would have picked a better winner. But, honestly, there was only one Omar entry (from The Wire), and we thought it was funny. The winner is:

One other thing — we have another pair to give away next week.

Finally, Most Importantly, We’ve Added a Third Member to the Team

Will and I have full time jobs. We’re married. Will has 3 kids, I have 2. We have a lot going on. For over a year we’ve been looking for someone to be the third member of @NashSevereWx. We found the perfect person.

Will and I have complete confidence in Andrew. As the weeks/months/years pass by, we are confident you will, too.

All that said, nothing will change. Just adding another chef to the kitchen. You’ll still get what you hope to get on Twitter and here on the website, whatever that is.

Hopefully more of this.

And less of this.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Warm & Humid for a Few More Days

Current Radar

This Evening – 80° by 7 PM 

Sunset: 6:51 PM 

We won’t be cooling off as quickly this evening, and it’ll continue to be a bit sticky.

Bright side: clear skies!

FRIDAY – Early Birds: 60°, High: 87°

Sunrise: 6:31 AM

Friday will be a good day for any games or outdoor plans.

Afternoon temperatures will again jump up to the upper 80°s, and humidity will be a smidge higher.

Rain will stay away, although we will be turning our attention to an approaching cold front.

SATURDAY – Early Birds: 65°, High: 88°

Said approaching front will be quite the weak one, with not much expected in the way of rainfall.

We could pick up a straggling shower Saturday afternoon, though:

Cooler air will be trailing behind the front, but won’t really settle-in for us until Sunday:

This front will be strong enough to shift our winds back to a northerly flow, knocking humidity back down again.

Extended: Highs back to the 70°s by Sunday 

 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Looking Through the Weekend

Current Observations and Radar (refresh to update)

Warming Up

Yesterday and today, we hit 84° (we may have snuck in 85° today, waiting for official word on that). Tomorrow and Friday we’ll hit 88°, with 87° on Saturday.

Dewpoints will rise to Sticky levels Friday & Saturday, which may require an extra deodorant swipe. Please consult this handy table:

Wee Hour Fog

Possible in the early morning hours Thursday and Friday. Watch out for it in the usual spots.

Weekend Rain? Prolly Not

We’ll be dry through Saturday.

A cold front will arrive Sunday. As usual, this means rain is possible. Except this time, the front is a wuss.

Euro and GFS models still think the front will pass with little to no rain, so for now we think the chance of rain is brief, and low.  The front may only accomplish making some pretty clouds, admired in its time, then forgotten by history.

There is more model support for rain on Monday, but we’re talking about 144+ hours from now, and forecast accuracy that far away is (alert! repeat GIF!)

The cold front will trim the top off the temps. Low 80°s return beginning Sunday.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.