High Pressure, Low Temps, Great Weekend

Current Radar

Tonight, expect 50°s to turn into 40°s. If you’re going out, be ready.

Sunday – Freeze Warning 2am-9am, Sunny – Wake Up 34°, High 61°

A Freeze  Warning is in effect from 2 am to 9 am. Protect plants: NWS says “sensitive outdoor plants may be killed if left uncovered.”

  

  

The high pressure center will remain in charge, eliminating rain chances.

The air will be very dry. Dewpoints in the 30°s mean you should look for chapstick.

This is Burt. From Burt’s Bees. Of course he has a beard.

Next Week – Warmer

The high pressure will move, and its clockwise winds will spin in a southern breeze for us.

Rain isn’t in the forecast for the foreseeable future.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Frost Advisory Overnight - Protect Plants, Warm Blooded Organisms

Current Radar

Today was National Boss Day, the latest in an endless string of #days. I find no compelling “boss” theme gifs/memes, but “like a boss” is a different story. So, my favorite Like A Boss gifs, and some cold temps.

Tonight/Overnight – Freaking Cold: 37°

The coldest “night” of the fall season happens tonight. Temps will fall into the 50°s during HS football games.

For the wee hours of Saturday morning, NWS-Nashville issued a Frost Advisory:

Saturday – Dry & Cool

Afternoon high, 62°. Deploy jackets.

We aren’t expecting rain in the foreseeable future. I tweeted this earlier, the GFS model for rain expected, next 7 days. High pressure bossing (!!) our weather:

Now that that’s out of the way, let’s just talk temps.

Sunday – Colder – Wake Up 35°, High 62°

A Frost Advisory will probably be needed for the pre-dawn hours Sunday morning.

It’ll be a proper fall day.

Next Week – More of This

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Cooler Temps Today Calls for Home Alone GIFs!

Current Radar

Get ready for a chilly weekend! Temperatures will be well below normal, about 10-15° cooler.

Today our high temperature will be 69° with a few clouds in the area. Winds have been a bit breezy this morning with gusts up to 15 mph. A cold front has swept through and drier air is arriving.

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I hope you packed the chapstick because dew points (not the temps!) will be in the low 30s to upper 20s this afternoon!

FRIDAY 1

 

If you are attending a high school football game this evening, make sure to wear a jacket! By 7:00 pm – 60°, then expect lows to reach the low 40s when you are waking up Saturday morning.  Brrr. We may see some patchy frost in the morning. A frost advisory may be issued by the National Weather Service this evening. We will keep you updated on Twitter of course!

SAT 7am

Saturday will be even cooler with a high only warming up to 61°! High pressure will keep us dry and the northerly winds will continue to bring in cooler, drier air.

GFS HIGH

 

Sat 12z

Dew points will be in the upper 20s under a mostly sunny sky. Get this – our lows will be mid 30s waking up on Sunday. That is no typo!

Make sure to dress in layers when you are on your way to church or running morning errands.

The high temperature will reach 63° Sunday under a sunny sky. 

Extended: High pressure will stay overhead and keep showers out of the area. The beginning of the week will be very nice! We will begin to warm back up on Monday while dew points stay in the upper 30s to low 40s. Yay for no humidity!

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This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Warm this Afternoon. Cold Punch Tomorrow Night.

Current Radar

No rain this evening, but that’ll change overnight…

Temperatures will drop to 54° through tomorrow morning, staying pretty mild due to increased cloud cover. Another cold front will begin to sweep through while we’re sleeping.

Models think it will bring us a little rain, but not a whole lot by any means. Some showers may begin to move-in after midnight: 

Looks like rush-hour should be kinda wet, but okay:

Overall: nice sleeping weather tonight, if you enjoy the pitter-patter of rain.

Clouds will stick around through the morning, but sunny skies should return by the afternoon.

Highs tomorrow afternoon will only make it up to about 69°!

The front itself will help to pull down a good bit of really cold, Canadian air.

Another stronger area of high pressure will settle-in behind the front, allowing for some of that very cold air to make itself at home.

Add-in clear skies, and our lows will plummet Friday night into Saturday morning, near 40°, possibly into the upper 30°s. We could see our first frost of the season!

Special Statement from NWS Nashville:

National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary - Google Chrome 2015-10-15 17.59.56

Highs Saturday will even be a little lower than Friday, topping out near 61°. Expect sunny skies all weekend.

Our next shot at rain holds-off until middle/late next week.

The Rest of the Weekend: Nice & Cool 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Nice Wednesday & Have Chapstick This Weekend

Current Radar

Expect pleasant conditions on this hump day!

Today – Sunny High: 78°

As seen on the water vapor satellite – dry air has been filtering into the area today after a cold front that has passed a few days ago.

WV

 

Wednesday will be overall pretty quite for us as high pressure keeps conditions pleasant.

Temperatures will cool rapidly once the sunsets this evening. Lows tonight will be in the upper 40s around the area.

Thursday – Dry Waking Up: 48° High: 79°

Starting the day off pretty chilly out with dew points still in the low 40s.

Thursday will be pretty similar to Wednesday with temperatures warming up slightly.

High pressure will move to the east while a cold front from the northwest will sweep through Thursday evening into Friday morning.

Friday – Another Cold Front! Waking Up: 53° High: 71°

The cold front will move quickly across the area Thursday evening into early Friday morning. Can’t rule out an isolated shower in the area early Friday morning. Not anticipating a washout.

FRIDAY 4 am

Temperatures will drop to the low 70s while dew points drop dramatically.

LUNCH

 

Drier air will be filtering in from the north after the front and dew points will drop to upper 20s to lower 30s.

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Cloud cover will increase in the morning and the winds will pick up with gusts up to 15 mph. As for our temperatures – they will drop throughout the day with a highs only reaching the lower 70s with some neighborhoods only warming up to upper 60s.

Friday will be overall nice! Once the cloud cover moves to the southeast, we will clear out for the evening into the weekend.

Extended: Temperatures this weekend will be well below normal! 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Your football Saturday looks very nice! Take a jacket to any evening sporting events outside. Lows will drop to the upper 30s!

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Updated information can be found @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Prepare Yourselves: Amazing Weather Ahead

Current Radar

Officially, 0.37″ of rain was found in the gauge from last night’s rain.

Other areas got a lot more:

THIS EVENING – 66° by 7 PM

Sunset: 6:14 PM

Cool this evening with just a light north wind. 

Skies will remain clear! 

Lows overnight will drop to the mid 40°s. 

WEDNESDAY – More Weather Goodness – Early Birds: 47°, High: 77°

Sunrise: 6:42 AM

A jacket or sweater may be in order tomorrow morning, as we start the day in the mid 40°s. 

We’ll warm back up nicely to near 75° in the afternoon, with humidity expected to drop even more! 

Dew point temperatures will fall to the upper 30°s, which is pretty low….i.e. Alaska has dew points in that range. 

Simply put – it’ll be a fantastic fall day! 

THURSDAY – Just a Smidge Warmer – Early Birds: 46°, High: 76°

More of the same ahead as we approach the end of the week. 

Sunny skies, low humidity, and lovely, near-normal temperatures. 

Extended: Dry (Probably No Rain) Cold Front Friday drops us to the 60°s Saturday 

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Storms Tonight

Current Radar

Another Radar (refresh page to update)

It’s been a while.

A line of showers and thunderstorms will move into both counties tonight.

HRRR puts the ETA of the main line around 8 PM. This is just a model, it’s not the radar (see above):

The 8 PM arrival time may be delayed. Check the radars at the top of the page for updated/actual information. We’ll also be tweeting like crazy.

Storms are expected to intensify as they approach. Downpours are expected to be heavy – 0.19″ is forecast. This is not a “let’s keep playing, it’ll blow over” night. When the rain starts, you’re done for the night. Lightning is also possible.

Strong northwesterly low/mid level wind fields means our main storm concern tonight isdamaging thunderstorm winds. The probability of a 58+ MPH thunderstorm wind gust within 25 miles of you is 5%.

The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the area to our W and NW for the storm potential, but it’s unlikely they’ll think we’ll need a Severe Thunderstorm Watch:

In stormspeak, that’s a low probability, but you shouldn’t ignore it. Secure/tether underweight family members.

Tornadoes and hail are not expected.

Updated information can be found @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

After That, Cool, Quiet, & Pleasant

Nice today, Rain this Evening.

Current Radar

Temperatures warm to the low 80s around the area with some low clouds developing as we approach lunchtime. There is a surface cold front on the way that will pass through late this evening.

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The Storm Prediction Center has put us under a marginal risk for today. The main threat will be damaging winds up to 50 mph.
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Just ahead of the front – dew points will be in the upper 50s to low 60s as southerly winds bring in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico. There is a chance we will see some isolated showers and thunderstorms ahead of the line of showers.

Hour by Hour:

7:00 PM – 71°

The line of showers with thunderstorms ahead of the front will be approaching our area.

MON 7 pm

 

9:00 PM – 68°

We will start to see the line of showers move through. Winds will pick up a bit in the evening while front passes through.

MON 9

 

11:00 PM – 62°

The line of showers will loss its steam once it passes over us. Winds will begin to shift from out of the south to out of the north. Dry air will be filtering in and dew points will then decrease. 

MON 11

Waking up on Tuesday temperatures will be in the low 50s around our area with dew points in the upper 40s to low 50s. It will be a chilly morning with a partly cloudy sky.

The high temperature on Tuesday will be 74°. By the afternoon, clouds will filter out and we will be left with a mostly sunny sky. Overall pleasant Tuesday is in store for us!

Surface high pressure will move in after the front, which will keep us dry for the next couple of days.

Nice conditions continue on Wednesday. We will warm up slightly with a high at 76° in the afternoon under a sunny sky.

Extended: Clouds will increase Thursday evening ahead of another cold front. Rain chances will increases Thursday evening into Friday morning. Dew points will decreases rapidly into the upper 30s by Saturday morning. Expect below normal temperatures for the weekend.

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Monday Rain

Current Radar

Our quiet weather weekend will continue tonight. South winds will prevent us from reaching the 40°s overnight.

Monday – Nice Day, Rainy Night – Wake Up 52° High 84°

South winds will still be pumping in warm air. Short-range regional models (HRRR, NAM4) hint at a brief spit of light showers in the morning.

Around noon the winds will shift from S to SW as clouds announce the arrival of our next weathermaker.

A cold front will drag across Middle Tennessee and bring some rain.

Let’s zoom in.

With drier air in place ahead of the front, there won’t be much rainmaking stuff for the front to work with. So, less than 0.10″ of rain is expected.

That said, the front will bring its own upper level support for a few thunderstorms. Those selected for a thunderstorm will see up to 0.25″ of rain. No severe weather expected.

ETA remains shortly after dark, but the ETA will need adjustment in the morning.

Rest of the Week: Quiet

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.

Monday Night Rain?

Current Radar

Overnight, we hit 45°.

Sunday – So Nice – High 76°

Just a few clouds, no rain, no humidity. Great football weather.

Monday – Increasing Clouds, Maybe Some Late Afternoon/Evening Rain – Wake Up 53°, High 81°

Southwest winds will increase through the day, blowing in clouds Monday afternoon and evening. Conditions aloft might even support an occasional thunderstorm or two as a weak wave stretches across Middle Tennessee.

I think we may see a sprinkle or two, maybe more. Very interested to see this afternoon’s data on thunderstorm potential. SPC already has us circled for “general” and non-severe thunderstorms. I’ll be back in the weather cave tonight to update this forecast.

After That, Quiet & Cool

This website supplements @NashSevereWx on Twitter, which you can find here.