Look out for patchy frost this morning–your reminder that in Nashville, we can never really be sure what season it is. We will warm up this afternoon thanks to plenty of sunshine!
Tomorrow will look similar with even warmer temperatures.
24 hour rain fall totals from various observers in Nashville:
Williamson County:
The rainfall was historic:
Editor’s Note: We lost 4 people in this flood, at least that’s how many we know about as of noon Sunday. Each immeasurably valuable. The Mayor held a noon press conference and promised thorough investigation to understand the circumstances of each person having lost their life due to flash flooding. Investigations improve future messaging. But right now I do not want to reduce the lives of each of these four people into a lesson we expect to be taught later. Nothing is more important than a life. When we lose one it seems to me the community should mourn the person and surround his and her loved ones with love, kindness, and support, regardless of circumstances. Same is true for those who woke up with water in their home, businesses, and cars. Donate, give, love.
Storms this morning packed a punch with gusty winds, heavy rainfall, and hail.
Current radar shows sub-severe rain over the area. Unfortunately, this will only exacerbate the flooding concerns.
HRRR Model below shows off and on showers this afternoon before perhaps a more substantial line of storms rolls through overnight.
As I write this Andrew is on YouTube Live covering two Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Will is on the tweeter, tweeting about them. These are hail storms. Lightning frequent and intense. Severe straight line winds are possible but there is no reason for early morning tornado concerns.
Nashville. Williamson County. Saturday morning. A weary community awakes.
A warm front arrives. Behind it, a waterlogged atmosphere.
HRRR Model
7 AM, rain begins. Will Co first. First rain drops south of I-40. Soon the tattered rain curtain covers both counties.
Check out today’s sunrise over the hills surrounding Grassland in Williamson county.
After last night’s severe weather, we dry out for most of today followed by decreasing clouds throughout the morning. We’ll be topping out near the upper 60s for our high temperature and the lower 50s for our low overnight tonight.
If you only take one thing away from this blog please remember this: Stay connected all day today. We will be updating you on Twitter (@NashSevereWx) all day. We will go on YouTube Live if a warning is issued in either of our two counties. Do not read this blog and tune out. Things will change as this situation develops.
Our current thinking is that storms will come in two rounds. HRRR below shows round 1. We’ll see rain begin to move into the area around 8 am. Although this will not be the severe weather event, we will begin to see high rain totals. Do not mistake this for the main event.
Rain is approaching from the west this morning. The HRRR model (below) thinks it’ll break up before it gets to us.
As we publish this, the rain line is two counties away, moving closer, and has not (yet) broken up. We’ll follow this through the morning on Twitter.
Rain is pretty likely Tuesday. Notice how it scatters and breaks up as it gets into Middle Tennessee on the Euro model (but we still get rained on):
The HRRR model doesn’t think it’ll break up. It thinks a heavier band of rain will cross through after lunch.
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