Good morning, it’s Easter Sunday!
Today’s forecast is difficult. We want to give you the “what, when, where, and how much,” which is do-able when there’s a cold front or something obvious and trackable setting off the rain.
Warm Weather, More Rain In the Near Future
Hot! With Humidity On the Rise
Unseasonably warm weather continues across much of the southeast, including middle Tennessee this weekend. Southerly flow will begin to bring in more moisture tonight and tomorrow, foreshadowing our next rainy experience.
Sunny Skies Continue Tomorrow, Showers Look to Return on Easter Sunday
Dry Conditions For Everyone
Today was really hot … we even set a new record.
Today we set a record high for April 14, 89°, breaking the record of 88° set in 2006.
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) April 14, 2017
Getting Hot! Watching For Rain This Weekend
Feeling Like Summer Tomorrow
High pressure will take hold for the next couple of days, encompassing middle Tennessee in a dome of warm and mostly dry air. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid-80s, approaching 90ºF.
The record for maximum daily temperature on April 14th was 89º set back in 1887. We may get close to this tomorrow.
Sunshine Now Through Saturday, *But* an Afternoon Thunderstorm Could Squeeze in on Friday
Dry Conditions Over the Next Several Days
Have outdoor plans now through Saturday? Well you are in luck. The next few days appear to be filled with plenty of sunshine with highs topping off in the 80s for the rest of the week.
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Rain By Afternoon/Evening, Remainder of Week is Manageable
Healthy Coverage of Clouds, Rain This Afternoon
The HRRR , has a few showers and isolated storms rumbling through between evening rush hour and early Wednesday morning:
HRRR Model Loop
Going to the Sounds baseball game?
Follow in-stadium policy, but it would be advisable to have some sort of rain gear handy. We are confident in rain, but the “exactly when” is still a question mark. Follow @NashSevereWx on Twitter this evening for updates.
Periods of Sunshine and Periods of Showers This Week
Sunny and a Tad Bit Windy Today
Sunny skies will prevail for the remainder of the afternoon. Don’t be surprised if you feel a light breeze throughout the evening; winds are expected to stay in the 5 to 15 mph range with gusts up to 20 mph.
Rain Tuesday. Beyond that Looks OK with a lot of Uncertainty
Another Nice Day Tomorrow
Monday looks fantastic, with a little bit more humidity than we saw today.
Rain Tuesday? Yes. When? Not Exactly Sure.
NWS-Nashville kicked off the afternoon forecast discussion with:
Models are still not handling the onset of rain for Tuesday`s system very well.
The best thinking is an afternoon ETA, but we may see rain start in the morning, especially north of I-40.
“Remarkably Benign.”
Benign is good, y ‘all.
Here we are smack in the middle of what has been a very active spring severe storm season. But it looks like we’re taking a break from that this week.
Calm, Warming Pattern, Few Showers Through the Week
Warmer Next Few Days, Calm Pattern
NWS Nashville made a great point this morning:
“This is a remarkably uneventful forecast for April, with no severe storms or other significant wx through the next 7 days. After today, temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal each day.”
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