Update: The latest run of the HRRR Model isn’t picking up all too well on showers/storms currently moving into middle Tennessee, headed our way. In short, let’s keep an eye on radar as a chance for rain may increase in the next few hours. If the activity holds together, it will impact Nashville proper during the start of the PM commute (4:00-4:30PM).
Showers have begun to pop-up across the Middle Tennessee region. If you have any afternoon or early evening plans, you may want to keep the umbrella handy just in case.
Luckily, any thunderstorms we see today should be weaker than those we saw yesterday. Nonetheless, there is always the possibility of damaging winds and small hail with these afternoon thunderstorms. I will also mention that localized flooding could become an issue for areas that have already received a lot of rain this week.
GFS Model Loop Through Monday
Of course, this model run alone is not Gospel. However, an active pattern with intermixed dry periods are expected over the next 7 days.
Wednesday and Thursday will be predominantly dry with temperatures into the 80s. A frontal boundary will approach the area Friday, increasing our chances for storms. By Saturday evening, a decent amount of instability and shear will be present to set off thunderstorms along a well-formed cold front. No official concerns of severe weather are warranted yet, but this could very well change as the event approaches.
Scattered showers and some non-severe thunderstorms have begun to fire up across Middle Tennessee. These showers will continue to push through the area for the remainder of the afternoon.
While there is no severe weather expected with any thunderstorms we see, they also need to be taken serious. Frequent lightning, strong wind gusts, heavy rainfall, and even some small hail could be associated with these thunderstorms. Be sure you are not caught outside when one arrives!
Dry air set up today between us and Clarksville. As I write this, the dewpoint in Nashville is d-r-y in the upper 40°s, but it’s pretty humid in Clarksville and points northwest, where the dewpoint is over 60°:
Good morning, it’s Easter Sunday!
Today’s forecast is difficult. We want to give you the “what, when, where, and how much,” which is do-able when there’s a cold front or something obvious and trackable setting off the rain.
Unseasonably warm weather continues across much of the southeast, including middle Tennessee this weekend. Southerly flow will begin to bring in more moisture tonight and tomorrow, foreshadowing our next rainy experience.
Today was really hot … we even set a new record.
Today we set a record high for April 14, 89°, breaking the record of 88° set in 2006.
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) April 14, 2017
High pressure will take hold for the next couple of days, encompassing middle Tennessee in a dome of warm and mostly dry air. Temperatures tomorrow will be in the mid-80s, approaching 90ºF.
The record for maximum daily temperature on April 14th was 89º set back in 1887. We may get close to this tomorrow.
Have outdoor plans now through Saturday? Well you are in luck. The next few days appear to be filled with plenty of sunshine with highs topping off in the 80s for the rest of the week.
https://giphy.com/gifs/nhl-hockey-ice-d3LEQS6GDas1ElP2
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