Forecast Blogs

“Remarkably Benign.”

Benign is good, y ‘all.

Here we are smack in the middle of what has been a very active spring severe storm season. But it looks like we’re taking a break from that this week.

This morning, NWS-Nashville wrote:

A remarkably benign stretch of spring weather will continue through the next 7 days.

So About That Rain/Storm Chance Tuesday: Rainout Alert?

A storm system with some potential to produce severe weather for those west of us today and tomorrow will arrive here Tuesday as mostly just a rainmaker.

Here are the Storm Prediction Center Outlooks for the next three days:

For us, right now we think there may be a few weak thunderstorms mixed in with the rain, but nothing worse than that. Our current probability for severe weather is less than 5%. So, yeah, that’s good.

But for the outdoorsy, the Weather Prediction Center has us down for 0.25″ to 0.50″ of rain with this system.

If this rain is going wash out Tuesday night, it’ll have to start earlier rather than later.  Models disagree about this.

The NAM3 model ETA is lunchtime, with rain switching to off and on through the afternoon.

However, the GFS and Euro models think most of the rain rain will hold off until the evening, maybe even late evening, continuing overnight into early Wednesday morning.

So there is hope you’ll get your sports, etc., in Tuesday after work and school. Too much uncertainty to say, so check back tonight when the higher resolution, shorter range models are available.

Rest of the Week

High pressure will squeeze out, or at least reduce, rain chances. A few weak systems bringing rain chances are expected late Thursday into Friday, and late Saturday, but confidence about both is low. All in all, a pretty good weather week.


The spring storm season is not over. Long-range model data shows potential for a few more severe weather events through April and May.

Categories: Forecast Blogs