This morning we were talking about a chance of rain Monday.
The NAM3 model thinks it will pass north of us:
The GFS model thinks it’ll pass this close to us Monday night:
I doubt your outdoor activities will be threatened Monday night. Even if there is some rain, it should pretty light.
It’s a cold morning as I write this, 42° at 6 AM. Not record-breaking cold, though. The record low for May 7 is 37° set in 1944.
The average high for May 7 is 76°, and we’ll come well under that today, high 70°.
Rain chances will be low as we get “omega blocked”, or caught between two low pressure systems — one west and one to the east.
Temperatures will moderate through the 70s and 80s, making for a comfortable Sunday and early start to the week. Storm chances reenter the picture by Thursday, and especially Friday as disturbances break down our nice weather.
Not only has today been extremely chilly, it has been fairly dreary. Showers have continued to move ever so slowly across our area. Hopefully showers will push to the east by this evening, but we still could see some showers into the early evening hours.
The heaviest rain is east of us, but there is more on the way tonight and overnight.
Today we were on the east side of a low pressure center. Rain was coming from the south.
Friday, the low will move east of us, and we’ll get rain from the west side of the low (the orange arrows), moving north-to-south.
Showers are rolling northward through our two-county area this morning, making for a cool and damp start to Thursday. The latest HRRR shows more showers and a few storms developing out of the south this afternoon and blanketing the area.
Starting tonight, we will begin to transition back into a somewhat wet period over the next several days. Thursday we will see more showers while Friday’s showers should become more off and on in nature. While Thursday and Friday shouldn’t be complete wash-outs the entire day, there will be a good bit of rainfall received both days.
GFS Loop 7PM Wednesday Through Saturday Morning
A fairly strong low pressure system will bring us the chance for showers and a couple thunderstorms starting tomorrow after sunset and continuing on-and-off through early Saturday. The best rain chances are Wednesday night through Friday around noon, while we are in close proximity to the center of low pressure. No severe weather is anticipated, as instability or “CAPE”, is expected to be low.
Watch out for the winds today, we currently have a Wind Advisory in place until this evening.
You may want to go ahead and secure any loose objects.
We have some spring-like weather in store for us over the next couple of days. For the remainder of our afternoon and evening today, expecting for mostly clear skies with clouds continuing to decrease through the overnight hours. If you have any outdoor plans tonight, you may want a light jacket as temperatures are expected to fall into the low 50s.
This afternoon’s severe thunderstorm winds, radar-estimated between 60-70 MPH, took down trees and power lines from Franklin toward BNA and Hermitage.
There was no tornado.
Rain should continue this afternoon — with a break late in the afternoon — then we should see more rain tonight. The HRRR model sure thinks so:
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