A Difficult Rain Forecast

Good morning, it’s Easter Sunday!

Today’s forecast is difficult. We want to give you the “what, when, where, and how much,” which is do-able when there’s a cold front or something obvious and trackable setting off the rain.

Without getting into the meteorology behind stretched and stalled out fronts and shortwaves, etc., just know we don’t have an obvious rain-creating trigger mechanism on that way we can see coming. Without it, a good ETA is very difficult.

But we are still going to give the forecast a good effort.

Sunday: Off & On Rain Chances

The morning rain that sped through should continue to push east and away from us.

The HRRR and NAM3 models think the rain will stay away until after noon, clearing the way for church services. This is supported by the GOES-16 satellite, which shows the energy that made the morning rain pushing east of us:

However, there is a risk of a few sprinkles before noon today.

After noon, rain chances increase. Below is the HRRR model, which thinks late afternoon/early evening is our best opportunity for rain:

A few of these late afternoon/early evening storms may be a strong, with small hail and gusty wind potential, but nothing of any concern. This risk of this is pretty low.

Monday: Wetter

The wet, humid pattern will continue into Monday, when more rain-making energy is expected to arrive. Most models say the rain will be scattered, off and on, during the daylight hours, with enough rain (0.25″ to 0.50″) to washout ball games Monday night.

However, some models, like the higher resolution NAM3 model shown below, hold off the rain until late Monday night into Tuesday morning, so I would not write off Monday night altogether:

NAM3 model from Monday 18z (1 PM) to Tuesday 12z (7 AM), in three hour increments.

Thunderstorms may accompany the rain, especially after noon, but these should generally stay below severe limits and present only a gusty wind/small hail threat in the strongest cells.

Rest of the Week: Soggy, Warm, Humid

By Tuesday, dewpoints will hit 60°, which will signal the arrival a summery, humid airmass.

Best chance of rain will be Tuesday, but the when/where/how much beyond that is very difficult to answer.

Weekend Storms, Cooler Next Weekend?

Models suggest a shift to colder weather in about a week, arriving Sunday or Monday (7 or 8 days from now). slicing lows down into the 40°s. To make that happen, heavy rain and storms may show up, arriving around the middle of the weekend.  This system has potential to be strong, but it’s too far away to draw conclusions.