Forecast Blogs

Rain Tuesday. Beyond that Looks OK with a lot of Uncertainty

Another Nice Day Tomorrow

Monday looks fantastic, with a little bit more humidity than we saw today.

Rain Tuesday? Yes. When? Not Exactly Sure.

NWS-Nashville kicked off the afternoon forecast discussion with:

Models are still not handling the onset of rain for Tuesday`s system very well.

The best thinking is an afternoon ETA, but we may see rain start in the morning, especially north of I-40.

Here’s the NAM3 model from 5AM Tuesday to 1 AM Wednesday showing light precip in here early in the afternoon, but most of the rain falling later in the afternoon and into the evening:

Another model, the Short Range Ensemble Forecast, gives us our best chance of rain around 4 PM to 7 PM.

This system will be a slow mover and fire off a few weak thunderstorms; however, we can’t say if we will see a thunderstorm in Davidson or Williamson Counties. No severe weather is expected.

When it’s all said and done, expect over 0.25″ of rain.

So there is some hope you’ll get your sports, etc., in Tuesday after work and school, but I would not bet too much on that.

Rest of the Week

After we dry out Wednesday and look into the rest of the week, cue no one’s favorite game of “Model Disagreement!”

There’s a small chance of a little rain Thursday and maybe Friday, but the models disagree about the strength of a rain-suppressing upper level ridge. I’m kinda “meh.” I have outdoor plans Thursday night and I’m not concerned.

As for the weekend, yeah, we don’t know. I’ll quote NWS-Nashville:

I wish I had better suggestions for next weekend, but the GFS and Euro [models] are in very poor agreement. The general pattern would suggest better rain chance late on Sunday, but we`ll have to iron that out throughout this week.

As I wrote this morning, the spring storm season is not over. Long-range model data shows potential for a few more severe weather events through April and May.

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