GFS Model Wednesday Through Friday Evening
What’s the pattern change, you ask? Hotter temps and higher humidity is what’s in store heading into late week. Sunshine will be out in full force Wednesday, but dew points will remain in the mid-upper 50s. In other words, the air won’t be too “heavy” or overbearing quite yet.
Into this evening, all evening plans are a go. Enjoy the cool temps!
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Late tonight, we could see a few scattered showers. The latest run of the HRRR shows these showers moving in around to after midnight tonight. Unless you are up that late, you probably won’t even wake up from them.
A repeat of Sunday, temp and humidity-wise.
We wrote about it this morning, and this afternoon’s model runs still have it: a quick-passing tuft of rain moving thru in the morning. Here’s the NAM3 model:
83°, with the dewpoint in the low 50°s. Low fifties! It’s like it’s not even summer!
Low 80°s temps, and as far from summertime humidity as we can get.
Very light rain may sneak in from Arkansas and Missouri Tuesday morning, but it looks pretty iffy. The GFS model shows only a sprinkle passing through Tuesday morning:
Friday’s forecast came from a pretty unified prediction by the weather models. The models thought Tropical Storm/Depression Cindy was going to move north along the Louisiana/Texas border, then turn northeast, then east, and move into Middle Tennessee right as a cold front was going to sweep through. This combo was gonna make it rain and maybe even produce damaging winds and few isolated tornadoes.Hence the Flash Flood Watch and probabilities of tornado (5%) and damaging winds (15%).
Right now we are in a dry-ish waiting game period. There are still a few scattered showers to our west, but the bulk of the rain and storms have moved on to the east. Additionally, the Flash Flood Watch for our area has been cancelled.
Showers and some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. Today will be one of those if you absolutely must do something/drive somewhere today, do it early rather than later.
This morning, we do have a chance of seeing a few scattered showers. However, the main bulk of showers and thunderstorms should arrive sometime around or after lunchtime.
As she moves closer, her effects are felt stronger. Better organized winds and heavier rains are indicated for Friday.
Areas along and east of I-65 are under a “Slight Risk” for severe storms (2 out of 5) on Friday. Damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes are the main concerns.
Happy Summer! At 11:24 PM last night, summer officially started.
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Into this evening, clouds will continue to move in. We may begin to see some showers move in this evening, but these will likely hold off until after midnight.
A word of advice from NWS Nashville this morning:
Just a side item, before we get into the meat of things–you might want to strongly consider mowing your yard over the next couple of days since, after that, things will start to trend wetter and wetter with each passing day, until we finally start to dry back out early next week.
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