Into the evening hours tonight, skies will continue to clear out even more than they already have. There is mention of patchy foggy possibly developing after midnight, so if you are out that late be sure to use caution while driving.
More rain, with maybe a little lightning, is on the way tonight.
Flash flooding (a flood that happens almost suddenly, due to heavy rain and run off) is tonight’s primary weather concern.
A lot of rain has fallen. The below map is a radar estimate as of 6 PM. The purple indicates radar estimates of 1.5″ to 2″ or more, and are especially vulnerable to flash flooding tonight/overnight.
This afternoon’s storms produced a few downed trees and limbs, and some localized flooding. Those storms have departed south and east down I-24.
From around 4 PM to 6 PM, the rain should switch “off.” The HRRR model predicts more rain beginning around (maybe before?) 7 PM, and continuing for at least a few more hours.
Today’s Father’s Day forecast is kinda like this.
Expect thunderstorms.
At 8:45 AM, weak storms near Paducah, KY, are moving slowly our way down I-24. Those storms should strengthen as they approach and encounter a hotter, more destabilized airmass here in Davidson & Williamson Counties.
The Storm Prediction Center gives all of us a “2 out of 5”, or Slight Risk, for severe weather on Sunday.
What: Showers and storms, some strong/severe. Main concerns are damaging winds, but hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.
Tomorrow looks to be a pretty close repeat of today. The only differences for tomorrow will be that our high temps will reach the mid-90s and we will have to re-introduce those summertime pop-up shower chances.
Heading out the Sounds game tonight? Other than wiping off your seat, we will remain dry!
GFS Model Through Tuesday AM
A continued string of hot and humid days is expected into the weekend, so don’t forget to throw in those pesky afternoon storm chances each day! Sunday looks to be oppressive humidity/heat-wise, and is also when our much greater chance for more widespread rain and thunderstorms will return. A cold front will clear through the area on Monday bringing drier and a *little* cooler air (89ºF for next Tuesday afternoon instead of the recent low to mid 90s).
Another batch of early morning sunshine is expected tomorrow with highs reaching into the 90s. By the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms could develop with some becoming severe.
Once we reach the afternoon hours, it will become fair game for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Models are a bit inconsistent when it comes to timing for tomorrow, hence the large time frame.
A couple more pop-up showers/storms are possible this evening but should be gone shortly after sunset. If you get underneath one of these, the temperature will likely drop about 5-10 degrees.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of Davidson/Williamson counties under a “Marginal Risk” for severe weather on Thursday. Marginal hail and wind gusts are the main threats with any storms that get going. There will likely be better coverage of rain, so the umbrella would be more useful Thursday than with these other pop-up PM storms.
It’s that time of year again. A couple of summer-like days will start the week with sunny skies during the days with highs topping off in the upper 80s. Dew point temps will reach into the low 70s now through Wednesday, ushering in those very uncomfortable outdoor conditions.
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