Writer’s note: A complex forecast for much of the southern U.S. is playing out today, and in terms of us here, it should be much more subdued than areas to the southeast. If you have friends or family who are visiting/live in southern Georgia or northern Florida, today is a day, more important than any, to be weather vigilant. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a HIGH RISK (5 out of 5) for severe weather of all types and hasn’t done so since 2014.
Update: more showers and storms are developing to our southwest once again. There is uncertainty regarding the arrival of rain tonight, but we think prime time is somewhere between 2 AM and 6 AM. These storms could produce heavy downpours but widespread severe weather will stay well to our south. Here’s the latest HRRR model (which has done a nice job recently) on predicting tonight’s rain/storm arrival:
Well for some of us, we won the lottery and got a glimpse of the sun today. Some of us though, still were not able to.
All of us will see the sun again someday. Quiet evening tonight for those with Friday Night plans. Temps will fall into the low 50s overnight.
Current Radar
Regarding heavier rain/flooding potential…
NWS Nashville thinks areas that are low-lying or have poor drainage issues will be most at risk for water accumulation:
A FEW PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WITH LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SOME STREET FLOODING MAY OCCUR ALONG WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.
Clouds will continue to hang around into the evening hours. The good news is that showers won’t move in until the overnight hours, so any early evening plans you have should remain fairly dry.
Latest run of the HRRR shows showers arriving after midnight and increasing through the early AM hours.
A surface low is expected to track from the Gulf Coast northward along the Mississippi River, increasing shower/thunderstorm activity across much of the mid-south. Rainfall here in Nashville could accumulate to 1″+ in some spots, considering the strength of this system. No severe weather is expected at this time.
GFS Forecast, Wed. 6PM – Fri. 12PM
Let’s compare rainfall totals…the GFS model (only computer guidance) versus the Weather Prediction Center’s human-refined forecast:
GFS Forecasted Rainfall through Friday 12PM…
…versus WPC Rainfall Forecast through 6AM Friday
Bottom line: it appears that 1″ of rain by Friday at noon is likely. Whether some spots receive 1.50″ or greater seems to be based on rainfall rates, which could be fairly steady on Thursday.
NWS Nashville thinks Saturday night through Sunday could be a bit bumpy:
In the ext fcst, An unsettled and mild pattern can be expected through the period, for the most part. A strong storm system will bring showers and some tstm activity Sat nt and Sun. An upper level low will track across the southeastern U.S. by Monday and may bring some cooler temps and some additional rainfall.
Scattered showers are beginning to be seen on our radar, so don’t be surprised if you get a splash of rain through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening hours.
We are still anticipating for the more dominant line of showers to move in late this evening.
Locally dense fog remains possible beginning at midnight tonight lasting through the mid-morning hours on Martin Luther King Jr. Day.
The HRRR model illustrates:
That wintry weather will not come here, but the rain will. The rain ETA has bounced between late Monday night and early Tuesday morning. Bet on Tuesday morning.
Short answer is not really. We are going to see a little bit of sun tomorrow if everything goes right, but that’s about it. In the short term we’ll see less of a rain chance than we’ve seen in the last 72 hours. Clouds will try to push out to the N and warm air will try to move up from the S. The HRRR below shows limited rain in the very short term.
Rain is moving through the area now, as projected, and will exit by later this evening. Clouds will continue to hang with us into Sunday, as simulated below:
HRRR Cloud Cover through Sunday AM
Additionally, some cooler air will creep into middle Tennessee later today/tonight as high pressure begins to build in. Winds will become northerly, assisting in the transport of colder temperatures.
