84ºF Today, Tomorrow, and Saturday
What more could you ask for in late August? We can thank northwesterly flow aloft for this drier, cooler pattern. The GFS, among most other models, agree that this great weather stretch will last through a portion of Sunday:
GFS Loop Through Sunday – Northwest Flow Aloft is Our Friend
Live on the Green – The Weeks, Portugal. The Man, and Spoon (Tonight 6:15-11:00PM)
Bring a blanket or jacket! Temperatures will be on the decrease through tonight’s show:
11:00PM…69ºF (End of show)
A light northeasterly breeze and mostly clear skies will allow those 6PM temperatures to drop into the upper 60s quite quickly.
Sunday and Beyond – Moisture Returning, Plus…All Eyes On Harvey
You’re probably asking, “When does this nice weather turn sour?” Sunday, but more likely, Monday. The Canadian high pressure that is currently steering northwest flow into Middle Tennessee will break down. A return of moisture from the south means a chance for an afternoon storm by Sunday.
Models begin diverging with their solutions to start next week. The GFS places scattered showers and storms over the region Monday and Tuesday, which is a very good possibility. A trough over the Great Lakes will be to blame for that.
GFS Monday and Tuesday Next Week
However…NWS Nashville still has their eyes peeled on Harvey in the Gulf of Mexico. What does this mean? As mentioned earlier in the week, some models, including the highly respected European Model, still show Harvey ejecting northeastward mid-late week and impacting our weather in Middle Tennessee.
LATEST EUROPEAN MODEL, 850mb Winds (one run, take with a grain of salt…not a forecast!)
If this were to hold true, we would likely feel the impacts of a remnant tropical system as soon as Thursday. Rain, some wind, and a modest potential for severe weather all enter stage right with this scenario.
….on the flip side…
The GFS in its past several runs is still not as impressed.
Bottom line: take next week’s weather with a grain of salt. By the weekend, we hope to have more clarity and guidance from the weather models. We don’t expect copious amounts of rain in the next 7 days, even if Harvey’s remnants were to visit Tennessee.
Stick with us on Twitter @NashSevereWx for the latest!
Categories: Forecast Blogs