A few scattered showers continue to move across the area. If you have early evening plans, bring the umbrella just in case.
Into the remainder of the evening, all eyes are on a few lines of showers currently located in western Tennessee. If these showers hold together, which some models think they will, we could see another round of showers and thunderstorms later tonight.
A typical summertime day is expected with highs in the upper 80s and dew point temps in the low 70s. It’ll be nice and sunny to start, with diurnal heat showers possible later today.
Into this afternoon, we introduce those shower and thunderstorm chances. Latest run of the HRRR, shown below, displays what it thinks will happen today.
There are times weather models can see what’s coming so we can provide you a good, reasonably reliable (not perfect), “when and where.”
This is not one of those times.
Weather models, which in a perfect world should arrive at the same thing, predict different things. Weather models also aren’t very good at handling summertime thunderstorms.
UPDATE as of 5:00PM CDT: The eastern half of both Davidson/Williamson remain under a “Marginal Risk” (1 out of 5) for damaging winds and some hail.
We’ve seen several showers and thunderstorms impact Davidson/Williamson counties today, some with ~40 mph wind gusts. More could develop through the evening, so we will be monitoring radar for developments.
Update: We’ve seen a few showers and storms roll through the bi-county area today. These should dissipate in conjunction with sunset, but heavy downpours remain possible through the evening.
Friday will provide increased rain chances, but particularly Friday night into Saturday. We will need to carefully monitor the potential for strong/severe storms on Saturday. While shear values are not very impressive, instability is high enough that when combined, could produce a few misbehavers. The biggest concerns would be hail and damaging winds on Saturday. All of that being said, we are not yet under any formal severe risk.
