High pressure has built into Tennessee, keeping the clouds away.
The HRRR model, below, shows some rain forming all around us, but nothing in Davidson or Williamson Counties.
Without clouds to shade us, temps are going to hang around in the 80s for much of the day, topping around 90, and although it’ll still be humid, it won’t be as humid as it was yesterday.
A high-pressure system has moved into the Ohio River Valley. It’s working to suppress our rain chances. We suppose a shower or two today is remotely possible, but we think that’s really unlikely. We remain hot, with temperatures in the upper 80s, and humid, with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s.
Hot, sticky, and sweaty is the theme for the day. High temps aren’t expected to creep out of the low 80s and dewpoints will be stationed in the mid 60s.
Again, by the early afternoon we are looking at widespread showers throughout our area.
Showers and storms are possible again today, but they will be hit or miss for us in Williamson and Davidson Counties.
If we get a shower, rainfall could be as high as an inch again today because the PWAT (precipitable water) values are expected around 1.6″ to 1.7″.
This afternoon, a severe thunderstorm developed in Maury County. By late afternoon, rain cooled air from that thunderstorm raced north and set off severe thunderstorms in Williamson then Davidson Counties. Hardest hit was Belle Meade and surrounding communities. High winds brought down trees and power was lost. We got several reports of small hail. Torrential rains caused localized flooding.
It’s uncertainty season.
Here’s one reason why ETAs and rain/no rain questions about your outdoor event are very difficult to answer with confidence.
Remember in elementary school when you were hopefully taught rain is basically just a tall cloud. The taller the cloud, the more water it has. When it gets tall and big enough, the water it has is too heavy to stay suspended in the cloud, so the water falls. That’s rain.
Good news! Looks like today will be a bit drier compared to what we’ve had the last couple of days.
We do have some model agreement that today will feature less coverage of pop-up showers. This comes from a weak ridge that will be building into our region late today.
Today will be another typical southern summer afternoon with temperatures in the low to mid-80s, clouds, humidity through the roof, and the expectation showers will break out by mid-afternoon and freckle the radar.
As discussed yesterday, days like today are hard to predict.
Today is expected to be like yesterday, with rain showers appearing as the sun heats the surface.
Due to overnight cooling, most storms died during the night. An increase of moisture closer to the surface left us with widespread cloud cover and thick fog in some places. The fog mixed out as the sun came up and warmed us up.
Future prediction is hard.
This week we’re at our outdoorsiest…during what’s statistically the wettest week of the year, mid-May.
Will it rain [insert location, date, time] because I have [plants to water, graduation ceremony, a game, going out with friends and thinking about a white top, it’s field day, etc] and I have to decide what to do?
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