Severe storms should develop along the Mississippi River later today. The system will move our way and is expected to weaken on arrival.
Details
The Storm Prediction Center has us placed within its “Marginal risk” (1 out of 5) of severe weather today. UPDATE 8:00pm SPC has now upgraded parts of both counties to a “slight” (2 out of 5) risk of severe weather.
If I could summarize Wednesday to Sunday in one GIF, it’s this one:
But first, details on rain and storm potential Monday morning, Monday night, and early Tuesday morning.
Two waves of storms are expected tomorrow. The second wave — arriving Monday night — may pack a punch. Below ETAs will need adjustment as models run and the rain shows itself on radar. Use models for guidance, not Gospel.
Early this morning it’s raining in Alabama and Mississippi. Just fog in usual spots for us. That fog should mix out by mid-morning. Enough cloud cover should keep temps under 90°.
Humidity remains oppressive with dewpoints around the low 70°s. Heat index will max out around 95°.
The air over Nashville is still pretty saturated, so storm formation is likely. Good news: rain cooled-air and plenty of cloud cover will keep high temps in the mid 80’s. Dewpoints remain in the low 70s.
Afternoon sunshine will help fuel development of more showers and thunderstorms later today and tonight. Both NAM3 and HRRR models have waffled back and forth on this, but now both agree rain and a few thunderstorms will develop to our west shortly after lunchtime, then become widespread in the late afternoon and early evening hours.
High temps today will push into the low 90s with dewpoints in the low 70s. Humidity is oppressive. Models think precipitable water totals between 2″ and 2.5″ (not that it’ll rain that much) will arrive tonight, indicating arrival of a soupy, sweaty airmass.
The humidity and afternoon showers and storms return… back to reality, I guess. For the first time in a couple days, we will have showers in the area. Even though a majority of the rain will be north and west, we have a chance of seeing some here in Williamson and Davidson Counties.
Thanks to a continuing stream of dry air, dewpoints will be dropping into the upper 50s today. Sinking air is keeping clouds away, allowing the sun to warm us into the low 90s.
Isolated showers out west should not make it to us tonight, as the HRRR model below shows.
Long story short: Hot, lower humidity, no rain chance until Wednesday. Morning dewpoints in the mid 60°s, dropping into the low 60°s in the afternoons.
Afternoon high temperatures will be in the low 90s with morning lows in the range of 68º-72º. The average high for this time of the year is 88º.
Dry air arrived early this morning, and settled in this afternoon:
Colors indicate cold clouds tops (rain and storms). Grey is dry and clear.
The temp and dew point temps will be close together, so watch out for fog in usual spots near bodies of water.
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