Temperatures will increase today, tomorrow, and Wednesday, stopped only by the arrival of clouds and rain beginning sometime Wednesday. Expect high temperatures to be in the low to mid-90s with morning lows in the mid-70s.
This morning, the HRRR model predicted this afternoon’s showers and thunderstorm, which poked through high pressure like a hernia through a tummy.
If you were north of the 24/65 split, near Skyline and Madison and Goodlettsville, you could not ignore it. It tossed lightning and prompted NWS-Nashville to issue an Areal Flood Advisory and a Significant Weather Advisory.
Last week’s cool snap is a memory.
High pressure is parked over the entire southeast. Weather nerds call this a “ridge,” a large clockwise rotating airmass that’s pushing down on us, trying to keep clouds from lifting and making it rain or storm. Behold the ridge at 18,000 feet (seen below).
The Heat Returns Today
The general forecast for today is for the clouds to recede and temps to rise to the temps we’re used to seeing this time of year.
Tonight
Something going on outside tonight? Not sure.
Did you get a chance to step outside this morning? It was hard to believe it was still summer! However, by this afternoon you’ll have no doubt it is still mid August.
A High pressure system, the weather feature that was giving us this relatively cool and tranquil period, is beginning to shift to the east, making way for temperatures and dew points to rise. Humidity will remain comfortable for the time being as it will take a day or two for the dew points to rebound into the uncomfortable and oppressive range.
Pleasant temps for another day!
Mid 80s for the high temps today. Northwesterly winds continue to push dewpoints down into the low 50s. Long story short, it’ll be a beautiful day!
We’ve got clear skies overhead as a surface high is located just to our north. A few clouds from a disturbance out west could wander into Williamson and Davidson counties sometime today, but no rain.
Step outside this morning, do you feel the drier air? Dew points are going to remain in the mid to low 60s today as the cold front that passed through last night ushers in drier air and relatively cooler temperatures.
I think it is safe to say that yesterday was noisy, especially late last night when those NE-moving cells intensified over our heads.
A cool down begins today, happening slowly but surely.
High temperatures will be in the low to mid-80s today as the cold front we talked about yesterday approaches and finally passes by this evening. The average high is 88º for this time of year.
Severe storms should develop along the Mississippi River later today. The system will move our way and is expected to weaken on arrival.
Details
The Storm Prediction Center has us placed within its “Marginal risk” (1 out of 5) of severe weather today. UPDATE 8:00pm SPC has now upgraded parts of both counties to a “slight” (2 out of 5) risk of severe weather.
If I could summarize Wednesday to Sunday in one GIF, it’s this one:
But first, details on rain and storm potential Monday morning, Monday night, and early Tuesday morning.
Two waves of storms are expected tomorrow. The second wave — arriving Monday night — may pack a punch. Below ETAs will need adjustment as models run and the rain shows itself on radar. Use models for guidance, not Gospel.
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