Low 90s temps in the shade this afternoon and Sunday afternoon.
Low 70s dewpoints this weekend. Heat index up to 99.
Remember, temps and that highly suss number called the heat index (anti heat index rant deleted for brevity) are for in the shade. Official high temps are always taken in the shade. If you’re out in direct sunlight, it’ll be worse, obviously.
The low pressure trough is finally leaving our area, and starting to take the rain with it. Key word “starting.”
The HRRR shows scattered storms mostly in the afternoon and evening, but they look significantly more scattered than in previous days. This means there should be some gaps in the rain, if you wanted to run some errands or go for an actual run. You’re probably sick of hearing this by now, but precise timing of when it will and will not be raining is hard to say.
Low pressure will hang around two more days, causing a “will it or won’t it” downpour risk. Today should look like the past few days – scattered showers and storms — some dry, others getting a show. NWS doesn’t expect anything too intense out of these storms, other than some heavy rain and wind, maybe lightning.
Low pressure over Arkansas is bringing us rain for the next couple days.
HRRR shows a line of showers moving in this afternoon after lunch. As instability builds, the rain blob will break apart into scattered showers and off and on thunderstorms. Lightning possible. Timing is difficult for any one location. These models run hourly, each run has a different idea.
Blame an upper level low spinning over Texas for wretched humidity and “will it, or won’t it, on and off rain and storms” this week. We can’t reliably time out whether or when it’ll rain because no frontal boundaries will be there to initiate storm-o-genesis. The result: difficult outdoor planning. Disorganized “may contain lightning” storms may be streaking by.
A frontal passage from early this morning cleared the showers and storms out of our area. High pressure is centered over our region today and will keep the weather dry and sunny. HRRR expects no rain in the Davidson and Williamson Co. area. It does show some small showers pop up briefly around 5 PM, but they go around us.
The troughing pattern that brought us scattered showers and storms yesterday is still in full swing today. What does that mean for us? This morning it brought us more of the same: rain, and plenty of it. It will continue to do so throughout the afternoon. The HRRR expects it will leave us alone at last this evening.
