Staying Warm, Sunny, and Dry

Another warm, sunny (ish) day in store!

High today will reach 69 degrees, some of us will make it into the 70’s, which is fairly average for this time of year.

Mostly sunny, with some clouds.

Temps will drop the low tonight and overnight into the mid 40’s.

High Pressure for the Win

The high pressure system in place to our east will allow this nice, warm weather to keep hanging around.

Same story continues for Friday with sunny, afternoon high of 72.

Dew points will return to the low 50’s starting Friday night, but still really comfy.

Beautiful Weekend

Sunny Saturday with a high of 75°. Lows in the mid/high 50°’s for the night. Great bonfire weather!

Gradually warming up on Sunday with a high of 77°. Mornings a bit warmer as well in the high 50’s.

No rain expected.

Next rain chance next week.

Dewpoints will approach 60° Tuesday night courtesy of tropical moisture. Remnants of Tropical Storm Eta probably will not make it to us, thanks to a cold front crossing across Tennessee. It’ll push Eta away. Too far away to time that cold front, but it should produce some rain here, best guess rain ETA range Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Heavy Rain Possible Wed-Thu.

It’s a foggy, misty Monday morning. Seems about right, huh?

A slight chance for light rain/drizzle to continue for the morning, but otherwise cloud cover will stick around.

Highs are a bit cooler today at 61.

Patchy fog will return later this evening and continue overnight into Tuesday morning.

Same Thing, Different Day

Tuesday looks to be very similar to today waking up with fog once again along with mostly cloudy skies, except it’ll be a little warmer with a high of 66.

rocky horror picture show beyonce GIF by myLAB Box

Most of the precipitation chances have moved off to the northwest, so only those areas have mention of rain Tuesday.

Two Systems Conspire into Soaking Rain Event

A closed low with advancing warm front, plus remnants of Zeta, might create heavy rain Wednesday and/or Thursday, but there are several uncertainties.

Warm front will lift north from Mississippi and Alabama. The Euro model below shows precipitable water value. The model begins noon Tuesday and ends noon Thursday. Watch how this thick, rainfriendly airmass arrives around midday Wednesday.

Associated with that is Zeta, predicted to weaken and pass south of us late Thursday.

Warm front timing and Zeta’s track have changed over the past 24 hours. More changes are possible, if not likely. Timing is important because it’s the timing that will determine how much rain we get, and when we get it.

All this could still take a new turn and change things for us.

Our best guesses right now:

  • Rain could begin as early as Wednesday morning.
  • Rain is more likely to begin early Wednesday afternoon.
  • We are most confident that it’ll be raining Wednesday night, and most fields will not be able to handle that much water. We should pass 0.5″ sometime Wednesday night, and rain should continue until around sunrise Thursday morning.
  • Rain could continue until noon Thursday, or even into the afternoon hours, but we think that’s less likely right now.

Rain may be heavy at times Wednesday and Thursday, but confidence for exactly how much and specific timing
still needs to be worked out.

NWS-Nashville, Media Briefing, 10/26/20

Values/Totals range between 1″ and 3″, but the trend is toward less rain, not more.

WPC QPF values paint us in the 1.5″ category, but notice how all the heavy rain should follow Zeta’s track to our south and east.

New information almost always is better than old information when it comes to weather. Check back for more updates on Twitter and on this website tomorrow & Wednesday.

Clearing Up for Trick or Treat

All of this nasty weather will be on its way in time to clear up for the weekend.

Friday and Saturday are both calling for sunny skies and cool, seasonal temperatures. Just in time for Trick or Treat!

Nice and Mild Until Rain Moves in for the Weekend

Another warm afternoon ahead with lots of sunshine and a few clouds. High temperature of 82.

These temperatures are pretty above average for this time of year. But are we surprised?

The average high temperature for October 21st is 70 degrees, so we are a good 12 degrees over.

Same Story Tomorrow

The not-so-fall temps will continue tomorrow and even be a tad bit warmer with a high of 82.

Sunny skies will also stick around for another nice day!

Rain Ahead for the Weekend

There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday due to a surface cold front moving through.

Rain totals don’t look especially high, but if you have outdoor activities this weekend, have a rain plan handy. Severe weather is not expected.

Sunny skies and 80 degree temps return for Sunday.

Cold Front Moving Through Tonight, Another On the Way

The remnants of Hurricane Delta have moved along and are now out of the picture.

Although, we are still experiencing overcast skies today that could possibly bring us showers this afternoon with a high of 81.

Timing will be after 5pm and the potential storms are not expected to be severe.

The good news is that these showers are a result of a weak cool front that will be pushing through late today. Expect generally light amounts today with little, if any, thunder.

Staying Dry for the Next Couple Days

We have a break from cold fronts Tuesday and Wednesday leaving us sunny and dry with temps in the 70s.

Cold Front Part Two

Another cold front is quickly following today’s. This one is expected to cross us later Thursday into Thursday night.

Moisture and instability are fairly low in this system, so nothing more than just rain should come as a result.

Those showers will potentially take place Thursday night after 8pm.

Frost in the Forecast for the Weekend

Post Thursday’s cold front, the low Friday night is going to be 39 degrees with some frost possible.

Highs through the weekend will be nice and cool in the 60’s. No precipitation is expected with clear, sunny skies.

Delta Expected This Weekend as a Tropical Depression. Timing, Impacts, Uncertainties, Titans.

Nothing to talk about today or Thursday. Mid 80°s and sunshiny.

Hurricane Delta Will Be Tropical Depression Delta When It Gets Here

Hurricane Delta is expected to make landfall on the Louisiana coast Friday night.

cone graphic

It will weaken and move inland and head our way this weekend.

Models disagree when the rain will get here (and when it’ll leave).

We’re pretty dry so it should be difficult to flood us out.

And it looks like the heaviest rain will go west.

The GFS model predicts this will be a late Friday night, most/all day Saturday, gone around noon Sunday rain event.

Notice all the heavy rain goes west of us.

The Euro model slows Delta down, swings it further west, and rains a little bit on us Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

Both models suggest the heaviest rain will be west of us sometime Saturday, Saturday night, into Sunday morning:

Winds, tornadoes?

Not really worried about that, but we will watch it. Today NWS-Nashville wrote:

Forecast soundings show impressive low level shear with the weakening tropical cyclone as it moves into the area on Saturday, but with little or no instability. Thus the several weather risk also currently appears very low, but will have to keep an eye on it.

So without instability, you can’t get tornadoes. However, with the center of what will be a tropical depression passing close by to our west, we always have to keep an eye out for a quick, usually weak, spin up tornado. We’ll be watching the west side of the storm as it moves north through LA to see if it’s producing tornadoes in MS. That’ll be a clue. For now, I’m not worried about it, and it should not trigger March 3 tornado anxiety.

As far as winds go, the GFS model (which predicts Delta closer to us and therefore windier) has only 30+ MPH wind gusts. Not that big of a deal.

I know the Bills/Titans game has other concerns right now but if the game is played expect rain and some challenging, gusting winds. If any visiting team can handle wind, it’s the Bills, who play games in that ridiculous wind rolling off the lake they have up there. But Brett Kern is from that area so as usual we’ll win the punting contest for that one time we’ll have to punt in our 35 point dub.

Better information on the forecast of impacts for Middle Tennessee will become clearer over the next few days. Old information is no good, new information is almost always best.

Sunny, Cool, and Dry Today. Slight Chance of Rain This Weekend.

Happy Friday! This morning temps were in the low to mid 50’s along with clear, sunny skies.

This afternoon, those temperatures will increase to 73 degrees for our high today. Those sunny skies will stick around.

This time last week our high temperature was 67, so we’ve warmed up a bit over the last 7 days.

Nice Weekend Ahead, Slight Chance of Rain

Saturday will be very similar to today with a high of 71 and (almost) picture perfect sunny skies. 0% chance of precipitation. Dew point in the low 50’s.

Sunday is where the rain chance comes along. Although, it is only at 20% so we may not even see any rain at all. Skies will be party sunny with a high of 71.

Sunny and Dry Next Week

All the way up until at least Thursday of next week we will have clear, sunny skies!

We will still be having those fall like temperatures as well, but we will start getting a little warmer as the week progresses into the mid to high 70’s.

Rain Today, Warmer Weekend, Colder Next Week.

Post Tropical Depression Beta is now in central MS.

Beta’s northeast side is producing heavy rainfall in Middle Tennessee.

The north edge of that rain is cutting through our counties. More rain south, less rain to the north.

Under 0.5″ has fallen through 11 AM. Blue areas show where more than 0.5″ has fallen over the last 12 hours.

There’s a Flood Watch south of us. We are excluded.

Nashville is expected to get a total 0.5″ to 1″ of rain today. Will Co should see 1″ to 1.5″ total, again, the further south you are, the more you’ll get. We are already on the way to those totals.

The HRRR model thinks rain will turn off and on throughout the afternoon, and into the night.

High today 67°.

So Long, Beta

Tomorrow the rain will depart by the early morning, leaving us with a dry Friday and rain-unlikely weekend. High temperatures will rebound back to just a little below normal with a high of 77. Friday Night Lights will be rainless, kickoff in the low 70°s, fourth quarter mid 60°s.

Watch Beta run away Friday via the Euro model:

Warming Up For the Weekend

We are going to catch an additional taste of summer this weekend with highs in the 80’s both Saturday and Sunday.

Saturday will consist of mostly sunny skies with a high of 84 and no meaningful chance of showers,

Sunday will be similar with a high of 84 and mostly sunny skies, but there will be a slight afternoon chance for showers.

Getting Chilly Next Week

Frost is unlikely. Euro EPS data shows mean low temps first week of October in the mid 40°s. The outlier data only bottoms us out at 40°.

In 1984 we had an October 2 freeze. A 2020 repeat (for now) appears unlikely. Stay tuned.

Watching Tropical Storm Beta.

Today will be the opposite of a week ago.

Last Sunday:

Image

Fall-like temperatures continue today along with mostly sunny skies. High temps shouldn’t exceed 80.

days of the week sunday GIF

Fall is Coming.

Fall officially starts Tuesday! As you can see by the graphic, the lowest temps this week will be on Tuesday. So festive.

DIGITAL DOWNLOAD cut files Cricut silhouette its fall yall | Etsy

Tropical Storm Beta & You

Tropical Storm Beta is slowly (at 3mph) making its way to the Texas coast.

It should landfall in Texas early Tuesday morning, likely as a tropical storm. Rain will be Beta’s legacy (if it has a legacy).

Our region will be influenced by Beta’s path but we may not be impacted by it. Models still don’t know which way it’s going; without that, the amount of rain we might see is unknown. That big shaded area covering the west half of Tennessee is the range of where the center of the weak tropical depression could be.

The GFS & Euro models disagree on the forecast track by this point. For example, at 12Z Thursday, the GFS places the low center south of Lake Charles, LA while the Euro moves the low center all the way to Memphis.

NWS-Nashville AM Forecast Discussion 9/20/20

The Euro thinks some rain, GFS is rolling its eyes.

But a lot can change between now and then.

Consider the data.

That’s the Euro Ensemble Model, a chorus of voices trying to sing the song Where Is Beta Going? The choir is singing “Texas for sure,” from there, a half dozen baritone voices are trying to convince the choir to get some of those overrated ribs at the Rendezvous.

(Editor’s Note: The Rendezvous joke was mine, not Marilee’s. I lived once in Memphis, in Middle School. Went to Germantown Middle School. We were the Red Devils and my mother duct taped the word devils across the cover and my father would not allow me to attend the Russian Exhibit field trip so that’s kinda how it went. I transferred to White Station Jr. High for almost an entire year (we moved a lot) and having attended more elem, middle, and high schools than 98% of you reading this, it was the best school of them all).

Anyway, Beta rain should creep close to us by Thursday but after that is anyone’s guess.

24 Hr. Rainfall Model for Thursday

Beta has potential to wash out our Thursday, but confidence in that conclusion is low. Too many variables and contradictory data.

GFS and Euro models show a cold front dropping down late Sunday night into Monday. That should make some rain.

Jacket/Hoodie Szn Says Hello.

Tropical Depression Sally will pass east of us today. Winds rotate counterclockwise around Sally. As Sally passes east, our east wind will shift into a cooler, drier north wind.

Coming Soon: That Fall Feeling

Today’s north wind will continue into the weekend. Friday temperatures will drop humidity and temps, with afternoon highs in the mid 70’s.

A taste of fall. Sunshine will break through the clouds.

blustery winnie the pooh GIF

Glorious Weekend

Cooler, and NO RAIN!! Highs in the 70s, comfortable dewpoints, and morning lows in the 50s.

No rain in the forecast for at least the next seven days. Dewpoints low and dry.

Chapstick: Friend or Foe | SiOWfa15: Science in Our World: Certainty and  Controversy

Mostly Dry Today, Wet Weekend Ahead

TGIF! This morning we are starting out with sunny skies and temperatures in the low 70’s.

By the mid afternoon hours those temperatures will get into the low 90’s.

There is a slight chance for showers later this evening between 5pm and 8pm. Anything that may pop up will be very isolated and short lived.

Wet Weather for the Weekend

Saturday

Showers are possible as early as mid morning. The bulk of the rain will be mostly in the afternoon. Rain is possible though the evening.

Any storms we seeare not expected to be severe.

ECMWF Hourly Precipitation Model from 11am to 12am Saturday

Sunday

Even more numerous showers and storms are expected. Along with that will come a cold front from the northwest.

These showers and storms are expected anywhere from 8am to 8pm.

Storms are not expected to be severe, but Sunday’s Quantitive Precipitation Forecast was bumped up slightly to reflect pockets of heavier rain across the eastern half of the Mid State.

As you can see, a decent amount of rainfall is expected over these next two days.

Have a great weekend, and stay dry!