Chance of Showers Tonight, Rain Break Starting Tomorrow.

Clouds and cooler temps for this Saturday afternoon until rain chances increase for tonight.

Light rain showers could begin this evening begin after 7pm and may continue until 5am.

High today is 51 degrees.

HRRR Model from 7pm tonight-6am Sunday

Windy and Cooler Sunday

After those light rain showers in the early morning hours on Sunday, overcast skies will dissipate a bit to allow the sun to partially peak through tomorrow afternoon.

A west wind at 5-10 MPH will make it a little breezy tomorrow. Temperatures will be cooler as well with a high of 47.

african american sunday GIF by BET Awards

Beautiful Work Week Ahead

After all of this rainy, gloomy weather we have been having, we are finally getting a break!

Starting Monday, expect. sunny skies with no chance of rain. Same thing for Tuesday and Wednesday.

High temperatures for the first part of the week (Mon-Wed) will be in the low to mid 50’s.

Rain chances return on Thursday and Friday. We’ll know more later this week.

Two Waves of Rain for NYE & NYD

The morning weather balloon showed winds just off the surface at 50 knots. Some of that wind will find its way to the surface by mid day. Expect gusts to 33 MPH around noon, slackening off tonight. Morning temperatures in the 50’s will reach 65° this afternoon. That’s about 20° above climatological normal.

Dry this morning and early afternoon, with a few light showers possible.

Two Rounds of Rain

Round 1 begins an hour or so after dark tonight and ends around/after lunch Thursday. HRRR model:

Rain will be cold, falling overnight while temps drop to the low 40°s with wind chills upper 30°s. No flooding, no storms, no snow. About 1″ expected with Round 1.

Rain should pause Thursday afternoon and early evening, maybe interrupted by a light, brief shower. Round 2’s arrival depends on which model has it right.

Models think Round 2 will begin around midnight New Year’s Eve. HRRR model:

Other models agree, although some think Round 2’s ETA is a few hours after midnight.

Round 2 rain will continue Friday morning until late morning/lunchtime. Another 0.5″ to 0.75″ expected.

Storms are possible Friday morning. They should be isolated and below severe thresholds. Models show plenty of shear, but instability will be locally lacking. Winds will gust over 30 MPH in the afternoon, then slacken off at night. The severe threat is well south of us:

Total rainfall:

Flash flooding is unlikely. WPC puts our flash flooding probability at 5% to 10%.

New Years Day will end up unseasonably warm: high 72°. A cold front will arrive Friday night and cut Saturday morning temps to the low 40°s and afternoon temps to the low 50°s.

Season 5 Happy New Years GIF by Friends

The Weekend

A light shower may cross by Saturday night overnight into Sunday morning, otherwise expect an uneventful weekend.

Happy New Year!

Rain Moving Out, Some Chilly Days Ahead

It’s Hump Day!

Light rain continues across the region this morning with temperatures in the low 40’s.

This system should be moving out around lunchtime/noon.

Those temperatures aren’t going to warm up very much as the day goes on with only a high of 44.

Later this morning, some brief rain/snow mix could be possible. But this is mainly along the Tennessee River counties and Cumberland Plateau. “No [impacts or] accumulation expected due to the brief period of
potential wintry mix and temperatures remaining well above freezing.” – NWS Nashville

Lows tonight will be in the upper 20’s.

Rain Free For Rest of the Work Week

Very cold and dry weather is anticipated for Thursday and Friday.

Thursday will start off cloudy and be a little stubborn to clear up, but may allow some gradual sunshine.

It’ll also be our coldest day in this forecast with the high only reaching 41 degrees. Temps drop to 25 degrees overnight into Friday.

Friday is pretty much the same story, but with more sunshine and warmer temps reaching a high of 49.

Rain Returns for the Weekend

Saturday will start off mostly cloudy and dry in the morning hours. By the afternoon (mainly after 1pm), showers will be possible.

This system is forecasted to be much weaker than today’s events with only light rain expected and small rainfall amounts with only a few hundredths of an inch possible.

Rain will continue to be possible into the early morning on Sunday, but should be moving out by 7am.

This will leave us with some slightly warmer temps to start next week, and we should stay dry.

Looking WAY Ahead

…models indicate a strong cold front may plow through the area on Wednesday or Thursday of next
week, bringing our next chance of precipitation along with potentially much colder temperatures.

NWS Nashville, morning AFD December 16, 2020

Could be chilly as we approach the end of next week. But, this could change. Stay tuned!

Cold Sunday Night Rain

Our morning light rain will have ended before lunch.

A Cold Rain.

Sunday morning and early afternoon will be clear and dry. High only 54° with a cold north breeze. Clouds will arrive around late afternoon.

It’s going to start raining Sunday night. Rain will end early Monday morning. Euro model:

We expect rain only. A few model runs show flurries mixing in with the rain late Sunday night or before sunrise Monday. Surface temps will be above freezing, but the air aloft should be subfreezing and might cause rain to mix in with wintry precip.

But the majority view is “just rain.” A cold rain, too. Wind chills will hit the 30°s as this rain comes in.

No model shows snow accumulation or frozen precip travel hazards.

HRRR model timing: rain arriving around dark Sunday night, ending a few hours after midnight:

Total rainfall about 0.8″. That’s a good soak, enough to rainout evening and overnight outdoor activities.

Clearing Up Monday and Tuesday

The weekend rain will finally clear out to start off the work week, but leave us with chilly December temperatures.

Monday will be more like normal mid-December. High 48°. Lows early Tuesday morning will get down to 28 degrees.

Tuesday will be pretty much the same story with a high of 49 and mostly sunny skies.

No chance of precipitation either days.

warm GIF

Rain Returns Early Wednesday

Another system will arrive here on its journey to becoming a snow producer in the northeast U.S. It’ll be here either late Tuesday night or early Wednesday morning and last about a half a day. The system will have low moisture content, so not expecting a washout. Wintry precip of little consequence is possible north of us, but nothing local expected.

After that, the rest of the week (Thursday and Friday) looks sunny with no chance of rain along with cold temperatures.

Cloudy and Cold Today, but Nice Week Ahead. Rain Comes This Weekend.

It’s quite chilly this morning with temps in the low 30’s, and we are only going to warm up to 43.

cold a christmas story GIF

Skies are partly cloudy and will stay that way all day. A few flurries were caught in a north wind mid-morning, blowing into Middle Tennessee from Kentucky. These are of no consequence and will melt upon arrival.

Clouds Clearing Out Tuesday For A Nice Week

Tuesday will kick off the dry, sunny, warmer, and overall nice week we have ahead.

High temperatures Tuesday will be just a tad warmer than today. Afternoon high 48°.

Warmer each day this week.

Only sunny skies for the rest of the week with no rain chances until Friday night.

Rainy Weekend

With warm temperatures this time of year, you know what’s next.

Rain is expected to move into Middle TN Friday/Friday night. Looks right now like off and on showers Friday-Saturday morning . . .

. . . and again Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.

No widespread washout but some fields may be too wet for play. These look scattered and mostly light, with rain totals spread out over several hours.

Nice and Warmer Today, Rain Returns Tomorrow, A Look at the Weekend

Clear and cold today, but those temperatures will warm up out of the 20’s fairly well for a high of 49.

The sunshine will help keep you warmer today as well!

Rain Chance Returns Tomorrow

Thursday morning and early afternoon will be rain-free, but mostly cloudy.

By about 4pm, a chance for showers will start to move in and increase overnight. Nothing severe.

With a high of 51 and temps only going down to 42 Thursday night into Friday, no frozen precip is expected.

Precip Questions With Two (That’s A Stretch) Weekend Systems

System #1 is a continuation of the one causing the rain we’ll get Thursday. High rain chances will continue into Friday as the blob of unsettled weather moves east. On the back side of that blob, temps way above our heads will be chilly (thanks upper level low). As the rain shuts off early Saturday morning, we wouldn’t be shocked to see a few splat/melt flakes, but the most likely scenario is for precip to stay rain.

Euro model for 12 am to 12 pm Saturday.

System #2 is really not looking motivated to do much of anything, actually. It’s an upper level system Sunday and Monday that probably won’t even show up. If it does, it won’t find much, if any, moisture to work with. We felt bad for it, so we thought it should get a short mention.

GFS Model Sunday 6 pm – Monday 6 pm

Watch the GFS above closely, and you’ll see it zip east of us. Euro has zilch. Sorry sNOw lovers. We’re not impressed.

But, hey, high temps look to stay a little more reasonable over the next week.

Inversions and Instability: A Look at Damaging Wind & Tornado Potential Wednesday.

A cool, pleasant day ahead with high temperatures reaching low to mid 60’s and mostly sunny skies.

It’s a bit breezy today with a south wind at 10-15 mph gusting as high as 20 mph.

Rain and Storms Wednesday: Severe Weather Possible.

A warm front will lift across Middle Tennessee early Wednesday. Meanwhile, a strong low pressure system will move north of Middle Tennessee late Tuesday night into Wednesday, dragging a cold front through our area by Wednesday night. This sets up a rain and potential strong/severe storm event.

Timing

Right now ETA looks to be mid-morning. The HRRR model shows a broken line of showers and storms crossing the Mississippi River around sunrise. That puts them here around mid-morning.

The Euro model thinks the rain (storms?) will get here closer to sunrise.

We expect to have a better handle on timing tonight. For now, looks like a daylight hours event. Any strong/severe storms that might develop should occur while the sun is up. Rain totals meager, under a half inch. Looks like there will be a few waves of rain/storms going off and on through the daytime.

Hazards & Probabilities

It’ll be windy regardless of storms. Sustained around 20 MPH, with gusts over 30 MPH. These winds will blow from south to north, so be careful driving Wednesday especially in SUVs and other large vehicles.

The probability of severe thunderstorm winds (58+ MPH) happening within 25 miles of you is 5%.

The probability of a tornado happening within 25 miles of you is 2%.

These probabilities are low because weather models think there will be a temperature inversion near the surface. When this happens, storms cannot become “surface based,” meaning they don’t originate close enough to the ground to transport intense downdraft straight line winds. It also means storms aren’t close enough to the surface to sustain rotating updrafts needed to cause tornadoes to reach the ground.

Here we see one example of the temp inversion (#1) below, check out the slope of the red line in the circled area:

CAPE/instability is also missing. See #2, above. The lack of instability will limit the ability of this system to threaten tornadoes and strong thunderstorm winds.

So why is the risk not 0%? Because models can be wrong, and the margin of error here is pretty small. If even a few hundred j/kg of CAPE shows up, and there is no temperature inversion, then there’s potential for a downdraft severe thunderstorm wind event to make it to the surface, and/or it’s possible for rotating updraft to drop a tornado. But those probabilities are really low.

Below observe the colocation of strong storm shear and maybe 100 j/kg of CAPE around late afternoon.

This is probably nothing to worry about but after looking that, we are reminded to never ignore low CAPE, high shear events in November. Most turn out to be nothing, occasionally they can create severe weather, and there is no reliable way to distinguish one event from the other in advance.

Hail is not expected and we don’t expect much/any lightning with these.

You should always know what to do in a severe thunderstorm and/or tornado warning. Understand where you are on a map so if a warning is issued, you’ll know if it applies to you or not. Have multiple ways to get a warning (TV, app, weather radio, social media) in case something fails. Check often for storm updates. David, Will, and Andrew will post frequent updates on Twitter @NashSevereWx.

Our concern level is pretty low, but no storm event like this should be ignored.

Thanksgiving Day

Wednesday’s severe weather will have moved out and cleared into a beautiful, sunny day just in time for Thanksgiving.

Temperatures will have cooled off into the low 60’s as well.

Season 7 Thanksgiving GIF by Friends

Rain Chance Back for the Weekend

Due to a weak cold front moving through Friday night, rain chances will continue into Saturday morning.

This front will bring a wave of showers and cooler temperatures.

Saturday’s showers should occur mainly before noon, then will clear up for a sunny, cool afternoon with a high of 57.

Showers likely again on Sunday with a higher chance than Friday and Saturday. High of 58.

Red Flag Warning For Fire Danger Today, Rain Chances Return This Weekend

It’s Friday Eve! We’re warming up today with a high 69 degrees and clear, sunny skies.

It’s quite windy today due to a south wind at 10-15mph gusting as high as 35mph.

Due to these dry and windy conditions today, fire danger is high putting Davidson County in a Red Flag warning from 10am-6pm.

Rain Free Next Couple Days

Friday and Saturday will stay sunny and clear for us to start off the weekend.

Friday will have a high of 69 degrees, just like today, but less breezy.

Saturday will be a little more cloudy, but still mostly sunny. Just one degree cooler with a high of 68.

Rain Chances Return Sunday-Next Week

A frontal boundary will move through on Sunday, increasing rain chances in the afternoon hours into Sunday night. Rain chances decrease rapidly after midnight.

High temperatures behind the front will be cooler, upper 50s to low 60s.

Another system could impact us mid-week next week. This would bring another round of showers. Exact impacts are uncertain at this time.

Showers Incoming, Cold Front on the Way.

Our first rain chance in a week comes to town today.

Light, short lived showers could come about at anytime this afternoon due to continued warm air advection bringing dew points into the upper 60’s.

A weak thunderstorm is possible tonight before 11pm, but more likely between 11pm and 5am. Storms will not be severe and you do not need to worry about them. Severe threat is very far off to our northwest:

High temperatures today are still unseasonal at 78 degrees.

Rain Chance Increases Wednesday

Showers are likely before dawn Wednesday morning.

Showers should end by/before 1pm Wednesday.

A cold front will release a north wind in Middle Tennessee. Wednesday’s high will be about 10 degrees colder.

Clearing Up for the Rest of the Week

We clear up and cool off Thursday and Friday.

Thanks to the cold front on Wednesday, temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be in the mid/high 60’s.

No chance of rain for either of these days will bring clear, sunny skies as well.

Tropical Storm Eta

Some models predict moisture from Eta will bring quite a few showers and storms late Saturday into Sunday. Other models keep us dry until with maybe just a few showers late Sunday into Monday.

Uncertainty is causing forecaster caution. They’re putting rain chances this weekend in the slight to low chance category. More updates to come as the forecast matures.

Beautiful Weekend Weather, Rain Returns Next Week

TGIF! It’s a picture perfect day out there with just a few clouds and sunny skies. What better way to kick off the weekend!

High today will be near 75, dropping into the upper 40’s tonight.

Friday Fri Yay GIF by moodman

Beautiful, Warmer Weekend Ahead

Saturday and Sunday are looking to be picture perfect for any outdoor plans you may have.

Saturday, skies will be sunny with a high of 77.

Sunday it will warm up just a bit with a high of 79 with sunny skies.

No chance of rain either days.

Changes Coming Next Week

Rain chances return Tuesday thanks to moisture fetch so kindly given to us from Tropical Storm Eta along with a large upper trough over the Plains.

This should allow for some showers to develop areawide. More widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.

As of now, no severe weather is expected.