Editor’s Note: On this day in 1917, Nashville received 7 1/2 inches of snow. Give yourself about 30 seconds to immerse yourself in that scene, then proceed with reading this awesome forecast.
Warming up nicely out of the 40’s today with lots of sunshine.
Strong to severe storms are possible today and tonight.
Tornadoes are possible in Middle Tennessee, including Davidson & Williamson Counties of course. That’s the area we cover.
Around lunchtime we see our atmosphere begin gathering tornadomaking ingredients.
After dark a weak cold front will move through, pushing a few light, scattered showers ahead of it. No big deal.
Cold air will file in overnight, waking up to 37°, high only 54°. It’s still winter.
It is bitter cold out there with the highs only reaching 22 degrees today. Wind chills no more than 10. The only snow removal will be manual.
Models disagree where the snow – sleet – rain line will be. Early this morning NWS-Nashville summarized it like this:
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from NOW until 6pm for the possibility of freezing rain accumulations.
Impacts so far have been on vegetation/elevated surfaces on the hills and ridges in both counties. The chance of seeing more widespread icing on outdoor objects increases once you go up into Fairview or Joelton.
Dry, cool, and windy today. Mostly sunny with those winds at 15 mph gusting 20.
Same story for Wednesday, sunny and cool, but winds will be calmer.
A front will drive in a about six hours of light, then moderate, then briefly heavy rain sometime Thursday, most likely Thursday night.
If you walk outside today you’ll see lots of sunshine with picture perfect skies. A great day for any activity you may have planned!
Clouds will move back in tonight ahead of the system for Sunday and Monday.
Rain should approach late Wednesday night but there is question about whether it’ll miss us or not.
HRRR model has it going all south of us.
The Euro disagrees. It predicts a tenth of an inch or so Thursday morning:
A quick blast of snow is possible around midnight. HRRR model below:
This event shouldn’t threaten your Monday morning travels or inconvenience you in any other way.
Forecast is of low confidence as models continue to be all over the place as they struggle with the upcoming fast, split flow upper level pattern.
The real story here is that rain will begin pretty soon. JK the real story is that there is a non-zero chance of snow tonight and tomorrow morning. Let’s dive in…
After the afternoon rain event today (mainly after 5pm), temperatures will drop below freezing and that rain will transition into a rain/snow mix.
Nashville, although, is only expected to see less than half an inch. If anything, we will just get a dusting.
In general, impacts remain low. Temps should hover just a little bit above freezing at the surface in Nashville, but in the hollers, if it’s colder, bridges and overpasses could be impacted. Regardless, if you plan on traveling anywhere tonight or tomorrow morning, be cautious!
Let’s take a look at forecast models.
The Euro model (above) shows the snow Friday staying to the east. Other models show lingering moisture and weak lift which should be enough for some areas to see flurries.
Here’s what the NWS says…
IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED PRECIP THIS MORNING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP WEST OF I-65 AND LOOKS TO BE ALL RAIN THROUGH THE DAY THEREAFTER. AFTER SUNSET, TEMPS WILL DROP TO THE MID 30S BEFORE 9 PM, AND PRECIP WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX, FOLLOWED BY ALL SNOW JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGHER ELEVATIONS INCLUDING THE PLATEAU MAY COOL OFF A FEW DEGREES SOONER, AND SEE ALL SNOW BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SHOULD TEMPS COOL OFF A BIT SOONER AREA WIDE, WE MAY SEE MORE SNOW, AND IN THE OTHER DIRECTION, SHOULD TEMPS STAY WARMER, SNOW WILL BE DELAYED AND AMOUNTS WOULD DECREASE.
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