Scattered Showers This Weekend, Drying For The Workweek

Saturday

Happy weekend everyone!

We start off our Saturday mostly sunny through the morning and early afternoon, until storms begin to develop, especially along/west of I-65. The latest HRRR model has these storms popping up sometime after 1PM: 

Not exactly a complete washout, but some of us will definitely see some downpours and we move into the afternoon. Although no severe weather is expected, any of these storms will have the potential to produce gusty winds and drop 1 to 2 inches of rain in a short amount of time. That being said, localized flooding is not out of the picture.

High temperature around normal at 91° , and pretty muggy as the dewpoint reaches near 70. 

Sunday

We aren’t out of the path of rain chances just yet. More scattered showers and storms are expected Sunday. The NAM3 shows the rain starting off fairly early in the morning and remaining scattered throughout the afternoon into the evening:

Some areas will see higher rain totals than others.

Temperatures will dip a little from Saturday with 88° for the high. Humid once again.

raining kat dennings GIF

The Workweek

Once the weekend goes away, so do the rain chances. Funny how that works out.

Monday will remain dry and mostly sunny. We’ll be warmer and back up to 92° for the afternoon high. It’ll feel better outside as well, dewpoint values drop to the mid 60s, so not too shabby

After Monday, a basic routine summer pattern comes back into the picture with afternoon pop-up storms possible.

Temperatures close to normal in the low 90s, mostly sunny and dry for the majority of the day.

tennessee titans GIF by NFL

Check back for more updates!

 

 

 

Rain Possible Through The Weekend, Drying Off Next Week

Friday

Happy Friday!

Editor’s Note:

 

The end of our work week is going to be a wet one for some of us. Isolated to scattered pop-up storms will be possible this afternoon, mainly after 3PM. Not all of us will see rain, but a few of us could potentially see a couple downpours by the time the evening rolls around.

Here’s what the HRRR is showing for this afternoon:

The NAM3 agrees pretty closely, showing isolated showers for some, dry for others:

Otherwise, it’ll be partly cloudy out there for us today, near normal high temperature of 91°.

Saturday

Rain and storm chances increase as we progress into the weekend.

 

Saturday will be much like Friday. Mostly sunny during the morning and afternoon, then isolated and scattered pop-ups in the mid afternoon hours. Another warm, but normal day temperature wise. High near 91° once again, humid as the dewpoint sits near 70. 

Sunday

Sunday brings us the chance for our highest storms coverage.

The late afternoon and early evening hours on Sunday will bring us our greatest chance for some potentially heavy rainfall, and some strong wind gusts. There is no organized severe threat however. Here’s what the NWS-Nashville says:

“Most of the thunderstorms will continue to be diurnally driven
with a peak in activity in the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Storm movement will continue to be slow with some very
localized heavy rainfall. A brief strong wind gust cannot be
ruled out, but no widespread or organized severe wx is expected.”

Some of us could see a small peak of sun here and there during the early afternoon, a bit cooler as well, high of 88°

Next Week

Temperatures will continue to stay pretty normal for this time of year as we move into next work week.

Highs in the mid 80s and low 90s, and humid of course.

Rain chances look to remain fairly low for the first few days of next week, of course a few summer pop-ups can’t be ruled out of question. Everyone have a wonderful day!

Excited Kung Fu GIF by DreamWorks Animation

Check back for more updates!

 

 

 

Rain Chances Through the Weekend

Thursday

A pretty typical summer afternoon ahead for us today in Middle Tennessee. We’ll start off the first day of August with near normal temperatures, capping at 89° for the high, and of course, the humidity will play a factor in how it actually feels outside. Dewpoint values will be upper 60s as we progress into the afternoon.

We’ve got a chance for some pop-up summer showers, the HRRR showing them developing sometime after 12PM, especially east of I-65 and remaining fairly scattered. Not everyone will see rain, but having a backup plan for outdoor activities shouldn’t be out of the question.

Aside from some of us seeing a few showers, we’ll remain partly cloudy into the evening hours.

Friday

Friday is shaping out to look a lot like our Thursday. Some will see pop-up showers, some won’t. Mainly developing after 4PM. 

The NAM3 thinks most areas will remain dry, but some locations possibly getting a little wet:

We’ll be a little bit warmer, up to 91° for the high. Mostly sunny. Dewpoints still a little uncomfortable, hovering near 70. 

i'm out breaking news GIF by Homes.com

The Weekend

Rain continues to creep its way into the forecast more as we get into the weekend.

Saturday doesn’t look like a washout, but rain is possible. Expect some pop-up summer showers, ETAs still uncertain. Mostly sunny and normal early August temperatures, high 90°. 

Sunday looks wet. More scattered showers again during the morning and afternoon. Near normal high temperatures again in the low 90s. 

Check back for more updates!

Maybe Some Rain Later Today & Wednesday; Sun Returning For The Rest Of The Week

Tuesday

A weak cold front is coming in from the west. It may spark a few showers and storms. Rainfall totals won’t be much. It’s possible you won’t get any rain at all.

The latest HRRR model has showers developing 2 PM – 4 PM, but not everyone gets one:

The NAM3k agrees with the amount of rain, but favors the late afternoon into early evening for the development of these pop-ups:

Again, not everyone gets a shower or storm.

Some of these storms could be on the stronger side, but no severe weather is expected. Here’s what the NWS-Nashville has to say:

“There will likely be some thunder with any of these storms and yes, a brief wind gust to 40 mph is possible, but these are going to be few and far between.”

Temperature wise we’ll be cooler for this time of year thanks to that rain and cloud cover, topping out near 86°. 

Wednesday

Wednesday will likely be our last decent rain chance of the work week. Partly cloudy, still a little cooler, high of 88°. 

The NAM3 shows a couple small showers developing in the afternoon, but other than that, not really much:

Other than the potential for a few small pop-ups, we’ll remain partly sunny. Our trend of the upper 80s will continue as our dewpoint values stick near 70. 

Rest Of The Week

Rain chances decrease, leaving us to bake in the sunshine.

Thursday and Friday will be nice, mostly sunny, high of 91°.  Any end of the week plans will be in great shape, although the humidity will be a little gross, but not unbearable.

excited dak prescott GIF by NFL

(Editor’s Note: management does not approve of this Cowboys GIF. This was written by a State homer because he loves Dak Prescott.)

The weekend, although still a few days away, is shaping up nice and hot. Much like the end of the end of the week, mostly sunny, highs in the low 90s. 

Everyone have a great week!

Check back for more updates!

 

 

 

Mostly Dry And Sunny Weekend, Before Rain Chances Come Back For Next Week

Saturday

We’ve got another sunny afternoon ahead of us today! As this high pressure continues to move off to the Southwest, we’ll be in great shape to reach the low 90s this afternoon. A bit warmer than earlier this week, but near normal for this time of year. Humidity increases a bit as well along with the temperatures, into the mid 60s, or at the top of the “sticky” section of our dewpoint perception chart:

No chance of rain, however, a few clouds building into the afternoon. Any afternoon plans should be in great shape today!

Sunday

The end of our weekend is shaping out to be another sunny and warm one. Temperatures continue to rise a bit, along with the humidity, up to 91° for the high. Still, we remain mostly dry throughout the day, with a slight chance of a pop-up shower in the afternoon.  The NAM3 model shows a few pop up showers developing in the afternoon, but definitely not a washout by any means:

Start Of The Work Week

The beginning of our next work week will end our dry streak and break back a decent chance for some rain.

Monday will start off mostly cloudy, rain chance increasing during the afternoon, but not very widespread. We’ll reach a near-normal 91° for the high,  higher humidity sneaks back into the forecast as well.

Tuesday will be the best chance for some more widespread showers and storms. No severe weather is expected as of now. Still lots of uncertainty for ETA’s as it is a few days away, but Tuesday will definitely be our best chance for some decent rain. We’ll be a few degrees cooler for the high at 89°, dewpoint values climbing to 70°. 

Check back for more updates as we approach the beginning of next week!

 

Beautiful Weather For This Week, Even Into The Weekend

Wednesday

Another beautiful and sunny day in store for us in Middle Tennessee this afternoon!

Rain chances? None. All sun and lower temperatures? Definitely!

so excited dancing GIF by TikTok

Today’s high will be near 84°, around 5 degrees below average for this time of year. Dewpoints also will be fairly comfortable, up to 60°. 

A nice Northerly breeze at 10mph will put us in beautiful shape for a picture perfect afternoon!

The Rest of The Week

Let me sum up the rest of the week in another gif:

sun friday feeling GIF

For the remainder of the work week, get ready for more sunshine! Temperatures increase as we progress through the week, approaching 90° by Friday.

Nasty humidity stays out of our way, as dewpoint values continue to stay in the low 60s! 

Weekend Looking Nice

The weekend is getting closer, and there are plenty of reasons to be excited!

Low, if any, rain chances this weekend.

Mostly sunny skies, with a few more clouds building up in the afternoon. Temperatures will be near normal, climbing to the low 90s.  

Enjoy the beautiful weather this week and keep checking back for more updates!

 

 

 

Barry Related Rain, Maybe Storms Later Today and Tomorrow, Clearing Out By End Of The Week

Tuesday

Remnants of Tropical Depression Barry will continue to affect our area today and the next couple of days. A band of broken showers and storms will move through late this afternoon into the early evening, sometime after 5 pm. A few storms could be on the stronger side, The Storm Prediction Center currently has the western edge of Davidson County under a Marginal risk (1/5) for some of these storms to become severe.

Most threats remain low, with strong wind gusts and potential localized flooding the biggest threat.

Here’s what the HRRR has mapped out for these storms this afternoon:

This model shows them weakening as they get to us. However, another model, the NAM3, thinks a strong line of storm will race through shortly before dark.

We’ll be up to 88° this afternoon, muggy once again with dewpoint values in the low 70s. Consistent winds of 10-20 mph are expected throughout the day.

Wednesday

Wednesday isn’t much different from Tuesday, although rain/storm timing is earlier.

Remnants of Barry bring showers and storms, especially before noon, and become more scattered as we move into the afternoon. Here’s what the NAM3 thinks will happen:

The NWS-Nashville talks about potential localized flooding through Wednesday:

“Severe parameters not especially impressive but precipitable [water values] around 2 inches tonight and Wed brings localized flooding into play with slow movers.”

So probably just a rain event, with a few lightning storms possible.

Because clouds, a little bit cooler, high of 86°. Humid once again.

End Of the Workweek

Thursday and Friday are looking much better than the beginning of the week. Highs from the low to mid 90s, and of course the humidity will make its self known as dewpoint values reach the low 70s. Because of these high dewpoint values, we’re going to need to keep an eye on the heat index as it climbs over 100°.

Partly sunny for both days, aside from a possible stray shower Thursday afternoon especially.

the office spirit animal GIF

The Weekend

Still a little ways out, but the weekend is shaping out to be another hot and humid one, highs in the mid 90s. Partly sunny for Saturday and Sunday, small chances of summer pop-up showers in the afternoon. Keep in mind to stay hydrated and shaded for the end of the week and this weekend as these temperatures and heat indexes rise. Everyone have a great week!

Follow us on twitter @NashSevereWx and check back for more updates!

Rain on the Way, Barry the Reason

Friday

Happy Friday everyone! Classic July afternoon today.

A hot and humid afternoon, high of 91° with sweltering dewpoints in the low 70s.

Heat index will be in the upper 90s again so hydrate.

There’s a small chance of a couple pop-up showers, especially south of I-40. HRRR model predicts most showers south of the city:

Storms could be on the stronger side.

While severe storms are unlikely, a few gusts up to 50 mph will be possible. The other caveat is a lack of storm motion. With only 5-10 kts of storm motion from this morning`s [weather balloon], storms won`t be moving much. This could spell localized flooding issues if storms hang out in any one area for an extended time. These will both be things that will have to be watched once storms begin to increase in coverage today. (NWS-Nashville)

That rain risk increases the further south you go.

The Weekend

Saturday morning and early afternoon look probably dry.

Another hot one, high of 91°, heat index values into the upper 90s again.

By late afternoon/early evening, Barry-inspired tropical moisture + daytime heating could spark showers and storms.

The latest NAM3 model runs have a line of showers and storms moving in from our southwest after 6 PM and probably lasting through the Saturday night hours, maybe even into Sunday morning:

Yes, that’s a rainband from Barry.

Sunday afternoon and evening will probably be a wet.

With cloud cover/showers, it’ll be a little cooler, high near 87°. 

Remnants of Tropical Storm Barry currently forming in the Gulf of Mexico will make its way into our area late Sunday afternoon and into the evening.

cone graphic

The latest path from the National Hurricane Center has Barry weakening to a depression as it approaches our area, bringing lots of rain for our region, especially west of I-65.

Tropical storm force winds are not expected. This should be mainly a rain event.

Into Next Workweek

Tropical Storm Barry should set off waves of showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

Rainfall Saturday through Thursday, below:

Localized flooding is going to be possible this week, mostly west of I-65.

If Barry tracks further east, we should see more rain. David thinks his softball game Tuesday night will rain out.

Be sure to check back for more updates and changes as Barry approaches our area.

Hot and Humid Today and Tomorrow, Strong Storms Possible Thursday

Tuesday

Today and the next few days are going to be hot. As high pressure continues to move over our area, we’re going to steer mostly clear of showers this afternoon area wide. Temperatures will be up in the mid 90s, mostly sunny. We’re going to need to keep an eye on the heat index values. The high temperatures accompanied with the dewpoint values in the low 70s, heat index values will creep above 100°, even to just below the 105° range. Heat precautions are going to be needed so keep these tips from the NWS in mind:

Wednesday

Wednesday won’t have much relief in store for us from these high temps and heat index values. We have a slightly better chance for some afternoon pop-up showers that could give us some relief, but only scattered at best. The NAM3k isn’t really buying into much:

We’ll be up to the mid 90s once again this afternoon, mostly sunny with heat index values again into the lower 100° range, again, thanks to the muggy dewpoint values above 70°.

Thursday

A weak front will bring us some relief from the heat Thursday. Showers and storms will develop during the afternoon, some potentially being severe. The SPC currently has Nashville under a “Marginal” risk for severe weather, meaning we have a 5% chance of seeing severe weather within 25 miles of a point:

Here’s what the NAM3k is showing for Thursday afternoon:

Aside from the showers, high temperatures in the low 90s, partly sunny during the morning hours.

Friday and The Weekend

Slightly cooler temperatures and dewpoints are ahead for us this coming weekend. Friday will be in the upper 80s, however dewpoints finally fall back down below 70°. Not looking at much of a rain chance, so Friday will definitely be a nice one.

Saturday and Sunday have low rain chances, temperatures rebounding back into the low to mid 90s. 

mlb sports crazy mlb yelling GIF

Check back for updates!

 

 

Showers and Storms This Weekend, Drier For Next Week

Saturday

If you’ve been around Middle Tennessee the past few days, you probably have a good idea of what today is going to look like. We’ll start off partly sunny through early afternoon, temperatures quickly rising to a high of 89°. Grab the hairspray for your plans as well, dewpoint values will be in the mid 70s so it’s sure to be a very sticky one outside.

Showers and storms will start to pop-up and develop this afternoon, the HRRR model believes they start sometime after 1pm-2pm:

We’re not looking at a complete washout this afternoon, but if you have outdoor plans, have a plan in case a storm pops-up near you.

Sunday

For Sunday, it’s going to look a lot like our Saturday. Mostly cloudy during the morning hours, pop-up storms and showers developing during the afternoon, mainly after 2pm. Another hot and humid one, high of 89°, and the heat index of a steamy 98°. Dewpoint values once again will be in the mid 70s.

The NAM3k over the past few days has been underestimating storm coverage for our area, and I think it is still doing that today:

Showers are going to be a little heavier with more widespread pop-ups than the NAM is showing. Widespread rainfall amounts won’t be much, but some areas could see heavy downpours at times with these showers.

Beginning Of The Work Week

Next work week brings smaller rain chances along with it. Monday will remain mostly dry and partly cloudy with a small chance for a couple of pop-up showers in the afternoon. It’ll be a hot and humid, go figure, the high reaching 90°. Dewpoint in the low 70s.

Tuesday will be a lot like Monday, but a little warmer. The sun will be out and warming us up to 93° for the high. Another small chance of showers and storms in the afternoon.

The rest of the week looks pretty good. Rain chances increase just a bit for Wednesday and Thursday, especially during the afternoon. Highs will remain in the low to mid 90s all week, with heat index values approaching 100°. Have a great weekend!

finished the office GIF

Check back for more updates!