GOES 16 Visible Loop
A few showers continue this morning, but the good news is that we expect sunshine to return this afternoon! Temperatures will react appropriately, nearing 80°F for a high today. The remnant low pressure system over the Ohio Valley will take clouds and rain with it to the northeastern U.S. this weekend. Below is an image of GOES 16 water vapor, where the reds/oranges are high water vapor content and the gray areas are dry air.
Latest HRRR Loop – Updated 6:30 PM CDT
Irma’s remnant center of low pressure is expected to kick northeastward tomorrow, but bring in another swath of moisture and likely rainfall. Again, not a complete washout but definitely another dreary day on tap.
Northeasterly flow continues today and tomorrow with wind gusts as high as 25 mph. It’s the time of year for dual-wardrobes — shorts during the day and jackets during the evenings.
All the way through next Monday, expect daily afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 70s and overnight lows in the low to mid 50s! Definitely feeling like fall.
This morning’s run of the GFS keeps us rain-free through Monday morning:
GFS 250mb Winds through Sunday (Jet Stream)
The beginning of this loop is today’s storm energy moving through, with a cold front behind it.
High temperatures the rest of the week will remain in the 70s, gradually warming by the weekend. Northerly flow will keep our daytime temperatures nearly 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Additionally, with mostly clear skies each night, our overnight lows will be exceptionally chilly…somewhere in the low to mid 50s through next Sunday!
After all this time, we can finally cease our discussions (here in Middle TN) on Harvey. Clouds are still wrapping around the remnant low pressure system, centered over eastern Kentucky, leaving us with fair weather skies for today.
Periscope from 4 pm Detailing Latest Thinking on Rain/Storms
Harvey's Rain and Storm (low tornado) Potential Tonight. Review and discussion. https://t.co/Fo8v6jqeu2
— NashSevereWx (@NashSevereWx) August 31, 2017
Latest HRRR Model Loop
A weak upper level impulse will slide further south today, sparking showers and an isolated storm in Kentucky and along the KY/TN border. One or two of these may meander far enough south into Davidson County, but the chances are low. Temperatures will stay in the mid 80s for afternoon highs. Otherwise, expect some cloud cover around…as already evidenced by GOES this morning (also, note the fog around Nashville):
Canada is good for bacon, hockey, and lots of other things…including high pressure!
West-northwesterly flow, thanks to the Canadian high, will continue to filter in through the remainder of this weekend. Dry conditions will prevail, with sunshine bumping afternoon temperatures Sunday into the upper 80s. Overnight lows will be a bit cool, hovering in the low to mid 60s.
What more could you ask for in late August? We can thank northwesterly flow aloft for this drier, cooler pattern. The GFS, among most other models, agree that this great weather stretch will last through a portion of Sunday:
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