Pleasant Weather To End Week


Cooling Off Considerably, Very Pleasant Conditions

How do afternoon highs in the mid 80s sound? We have had our fair share of hot and humid days, but luckily a few cold fronts, like the one moving through tonight, have provided relief throughout the summer. High pressure is also going to be the headline, at least through Saturday.

Preliminary High Temperature Forecast

Wednesday…84°F
Thursday…84°F
Friday…83°F
Saturday…85°F

And no rain to dodge, either!

Live on the Green – The Weeks, Portugal. The Man, and Spoon (6:15-11:00PM)

A light breeze from the northwest and dew points in the upper 50s will keep temperatures at bay, so that the evening’s show may even require a jacket!

Preliminary Concert Time Temperatures

6:15PM…79ºF (Start time)
9PM…72ºF
11PM…68ºF (End time)

Saturday Night Into Next Week

By Sunday, moisture from the reinvigorating ex-Tropical Storm Harvey, that is forecast to impact portions of Texas late week, is expected to move inland and spread northeast in our direction. This morning’s GFS is in similar agreement with most global models:

GFS Loop Saturday through Next Tuesday

NWS Nashville:

The extended forecast much becomes more uncertain, and possibly much more unsettled going into next week. Sunday will probably be mainly rain free, but Monday and beyond could be quite wet. The remnants of potentially reinvigorated Tropical Storm Harvey will be producing copious rainfall along the TX Gulf Coast this weekend, and that tropical moisture may begin to move our way by Monday.

That, if it comes to fruition, could bring some heavy rain and thunderstorms to the area as early as Sunday afternoon…continuing through Wednesday. Time to keep an eye on the tropics!


Updated Eclipse Forecast, Looks Promising!

[tminus t=”21-08-2017 11:58:00″ align=”left” omitweeks=”true” id=”Solar-Eclipse”/]


A Total Eclipse of Nashville!

Once upon a time we were worried of rain, now we’re only watching for clouds. 

At the afternoon update, NWS Nashville preliminarily forecasted these sky conditions for the Eclipse tomorrow:

12pm…91 degrees, 23% cloud coverage (Partly Cloudy Skies)
1pm…90 degrees, 25% cloud coverage (Partly Cloudy Skies)
2pm…86 degrees, 28% cloud coverage (Partly Cloudy Skies)
3pm…91 degrees, 32% cloud coverage (Partly Cloudy Skies)

Every model run we get a little excited hoping skies will clear on out.

GFS Cloud Cover 1PM

NAM3 Cloud Cover 1PM 

HRRR Cloud Cover 1PM

NWS Nashville says, “Honestly, we really couldn’t have asked for a better forecast statistically speaking for August 21st.” And as the day goes on, like suggested on the NAM3, some cumulus clouds will develop over the area, hopefully not blocking anyone’s view of the Eclipse.

Below is a depiction of how the event will unfold for Downtown Nashville (other areas in Middle Tennessee are subject to slightly different times):

Temperatures will be acting a bit strange, too, during the full Eclipse. Expect about a 5-7°F drop in temperature as the maximum Eclipse begins and ends. As the sun returns into view, afternoon temps will quickly rebound into the 90s.

A wise professor once told me…put down your phones and take it all in. Here are a few phenomena that will occur during totality:

  • If you get the chance, stand next to/under a large tree. As totality arrives and ends, the pinhole light that is being shone on Earth will filter through the tree’s leaves…creating thousands of mini-eclipse shadows on the ground below.
  • Shadows! Pay close attention to lampposts, human-cast shadows, buildings, etc. Everything casts a different shadow, and you will be able to see these shadows change position on the ground in just a matter of minutes.
  • Animals tend to get a little confused. Studies on bees, other insects, and birds all show that the Eclipse affects them in different ways. See if you notice anything unusual on Monday.

All-in-all, this is an incredible event for our country, for Nashville, and is a chance for science to take center-stage. Think of this as one big experiment, brought to you by the alignment of the Universe (glasses not included).

Stick with us on @NashSevereWx for more talk on cloud-cover and other cool items leading up to and after the Eclipse. Otherwise, we’ll be busy soaking in totality.

Nashville, right on cue, a total eclipse soon to start!

Cold Front Moving In Tuesday Night, Cools Off Nicely Mid-Week

Tuesday is just another day in the Nashville sauna, but relief is on the way. A chance for measurable rain returns early Wednesday morning associated with a cold front.

GFS 7AM Wednesday (This shows rain that has accumulated over the past 6 hours…i.e. 1AM-7AM)

Showers and storms are expected through the day on Wednesday, clearing out of Davidson/Williamson Counties by dinnertime. The Storm Prediction Center thinks a few of the storms Tuesday night/Wednesday morning could produce gusty winds, which is why we are in a “Marginal Risk” (1 out of 5) for severe weather:

Thursday through the start of next weekend looks spectacular with afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s and partly cloudy skies.


Cold Front and More Storms Tomorrow


Thursday + Live on the Green (LOTG) Forecast

Rain chances going up! A cold front will arrive late Thursday into early Friday, sparking showers and storms out ahead of it Thursday afternoon and night. Provided below are two solutions: a wetter, more active-throughout-the-day GFS vs. much drier until Friday morning NAM3

GFS Loop Thursday

NAM3 7PM Thursday

Thursday 6:15 PM to 11 PM || Minus The Bear, Real Estate, and Local Natives

Since models are a bit wonky on their solutions, even at this “stage” in the game, it would probably be best to expect some form of rain during LOTG. It seems quite possible that a lot of Thursday night’s show will be dry, but bring the rain gear to be safe. Also, stick with us @NashSevereWx on Twitter tomorrow for help with narrowing down rain ETAs.

Mainly Dry Weekend, Thanks to High Pressure!

Chances for rain on Saturday and Sunday will be driven by the heating of the day. High pressure will be the ruling majority all weekend long, keeping most shenanigans out of the picture. You’ll be lucky (or unlucky) if a shower develops atop your head.

Temperatures (low 90s) and dew points (near 70°F) will be fairly high, making it feel like the mid 90s both days.

Solar Eclipse – Next Monday

Generally speaking, Monday looks to be a “variably cloudy day” with some breaks in the clouds…so hopefully the breaks come in time for the passing of the Solar Eclipse! A chance for isolated storms exists, too, but mainly for after the Eclipse. Let’s hope this holds out, too.

Keep in mind that we are still several days away and the upper atmospheric pattern will be very unorganized on Monday, so this forecast could easily change. Stay tuned.

GFS Loop Sunday Night through Tuesday Morning…better rain/cloud probabilities are in West Tennessee

 

Remember, Nashville’s (Downtown) totality begins at 1:27PM and continues until 1:29PM.


Best Chance of Storms On Thursday, Fingers Crossed For Eclipse


Quieting Down! Rain Fizzles

As the sun sets, the rain chances diminish rapidly either way. Still, a muggy evening is expected.

Wednesday, Much of the Same.

The upper levels of the atmosphere are not exactly what you would call “organized” at this time. There’s no real telling where a shower or storm could pop up on Wednesday, but the heat and humidity will definitely be supportive.

NAM3 thinks tomorrow morning/mid-afternoon could be stormy…this is at 10AM CT.

Keep the umbrella along!

Thursday + Live on the Green (LOTG) Forecast

More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Thursday out ahead of a cold front. The GFS and EURO agree on a little activity earlier in the day, but the “main rain” along the cold front comes 6PM and after. What does this mean for Live on the Green??

Thursday 6:15 PM to 11 PM || Minus The Bear, Real Estate, and Local Natives

Well, bring the ponchos folks. Rain appears likely at some point during the show, particularly during the first-half. You don’t want to miss this lineup! Stick with @NashSevereWx on Twitter all day Thursday to stay updated on the evening weather impacts.

Next Weekend

Again, Saturday should be dry. Most afternoon showers will remain west of our area, but an isolated straggler could try to move in late evening. With the loss of daytime heating, that probably isn’t a very likely scenario.

Sunday a better chance for rain exists with a decent return of moisture pushing northeast through Middle Tennessee. These will still be our garden-variety thunderstorms, typical of summertime.

Solar Eclipse – August 21st

NWS Nashville this morning on the “Big Eclipse Day”:

Early next week, weak westerlies to continue. Some drier air will attempt to work into the area behind the departing shortwave impulse. Too early to tell…but early indications are that mostly clear to partly cloudy skies might occur on Monday, the big total eclipse day. Stay tuned, a lot could change between now and then.

Remember, Nashville’s (Downtown) totality begins at 1:27PM and continues until 1:29PM. Don’t be like Velma…get your glasses ready!


Active Week of Rain and Storm Chances, Plus An Eclipse Outlook


Soggy Start to the Week

The hose is expected to finally shut off around dinnertime, leaving us with a drier evening. Temperatures will sink into the low-mid 70s by Tuesday morning.

Active Weather Pattern Continues

Afternoon storms are possible on Tuesday and again on Wednesday, aided by the warm and soupy airmass in place. Not everyone gets a free car wash, though!

GFS Model Loop through Saturday

Thursday into early Friday is when more widespread showers and storms are expected as a cold front approaches from the northwest. No severe weather is expected at this time.

Thursday’s Live on the Green (LOTG) Forecast

Thursday 6:15 PM to 11 PM || Minus The Bear, Real Estate, and Local Natives

This week, weather will be more of a consideration for LOTG. The GFS, NAM, and EURO are all in decent agreement about this cold front approaching during the afternoon. Cold front + warm/humid air = decent chance for rain. The latest NAM12 pushes rain into our area between 2-5PM, continuing into the early evening.

NAM12 Thursday Loop

You won’t want to miss this Thursday’s lineup, but you may need the poncho to stay dry.

How About Next Weekend?

Most models are in agreement that Saturday (like last week) remains dry. Sunday is where solutions diverge a bit, with the GFS saying, “Rain!” and the EURO saying, “Not a chance.” We’ll keep you posted on this as time draws nearer.

Solar Eclipse – One Week Away! (August 21st)

GFS Sunday through Tuesday Loop

NWS Nashville this morning on what conditions *may* be come next Monday:

The important thing is that both models (GFS/EURO) are agreeing that Monday should be pretty good eclipse viewing weather with upper ridging in control. This is still seven days out so stay tuned.

Remember, Nashville’s (Downtown) totality begins at 1:27PM and continues until 1:29PM. The last time the lower 48 United States saw a total solar eclipse was 1979. Get your glasses ready!


Rainy Afternoon/Evening Possible, Dry For the Weekend


Showers, Few Storms Possible This Afternoon/Evening

First and foremost…happy Friday!

We are watching two weather features in specific today:

The first is a chance for pop-up afternoon storms, thanks to decent moisture in the area.

The second is a line of showers and storms still well to our west this morning that models are expecting to fizzle, but confidence is not high in this solution yet. Decent lift along an approaching cold front might support this line moving in to our area later today AND/OR more storms could re-develop as part of that line this afternoon.

HRRR Model Loop Today

Any storms that move in today/tonight could be on the strong side capable of damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of us in Middle Tennessee under a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5):

Showers and storms will pepper the area through the evening into the overnight before dissipating shortly after sunrise on Saturday morning. The NAM3 is a little more aggressive than the HRRR, but both are in decent agreement that Davidson County and areas in northern Middle Tennessee will experience rain and storms overnight. If you’re headed down for an evening on Broadway, bring the rain jacket and be prepared for a few heavy downpours.

Stick with @NashSevereWx on Twitter to see if any outdoor evening plans are going to be rain-filled or rain-free.

This Weekend – Dry With Nice Weather, Great Music Likely

High pressure takes hold tomorrow and Sunday, keeping us wholly dry. Temperatures in the mid 80s sound good, so that’s what we’ll forecast…86ºF each day!

Anyone have tickets to Matchbox Twenty & Counting Crows on Saturday? No need to take the umbrella on your way down to Bridgestone! In fact, it’ll be a great evening to have an outdoor, pre-show dinner.

Same news for Sunday and Santana at Ascend Amphitheater. No real rain worries!

Next Week, Wetter Pattern Returns

Monday night into Tuesday and Thursday/Friday will be our best chances for rain. Wednesday is the exception, remaining dry under the influence of high pressure. These rain chances are not all too widespread, so you will probably still have to water the lawn.

GFS Model Monday through Saturday AM


Warm and Humid Brings Storm Chances Each Day


Live on the Green Forecast

Today 6:15 PM to 11 PM || Arkells, Michael Franti & Spearhead, and St. Paul and the Broken Bones

The aforementioned popcorn-style showers shouldn’t keep you away from tonight’s Live On The Green! In fact, grab your popcorn and head on down to 3rd Avenue for some great entertainment. Stick with us on Twitter this evening (@NashSevereWx) just in case there are a few pesky rainers are around. We’ll keep you posted!

Friday Through the Weekend

A stronger piece of upper level energy will slide down the I-24 corridor on Friday, sparking storms during the afternoon. Coverage will likely be a bit greater than today because we will have better “lift” to get those storms going.

NAM3 Friday at 4PM

Saturday will be much of the same, with isolated to scattered showers and storms. Sunday, another wave of energy moves in from the northwest and brings a greater chance of thunderstorms, where one or two could be on the stronger side.

Next Week – Find the Cold Front!

This whole showers/storms pattern will seek an end by midday on Friday as a cooler, drier airmass pushes south into Middle Tennessee. And not too much cooler, but with less humidity, bearable for this time of year.

Cold Front Position Tuesday Morning


Generally Cooler With A Few Late Week Weather Makers


Intermittent Showers Tapering Off Today

A frontal boundary is hanging out with us this week which means we will continue to forecast daily rain chances. As today goes on, this front is expected to slowly sag further south, which means areas in Northern Middle Tennessee will see less rain chances this week than those elsewhere. Somewhere in the middle are Davidson and Williamson Counties.

HRRR Loop For Today

Rain coverage will decrease towards dinnertime tonight, so if you have plans to be out and about this evening, wet weather shouldn’t be too big of a problem.

Temperatures will feel awfully [nice] cool for the second week in August. Most thermometers will struggle to get too far above 80ºF!

 No 90ºs This Week, Models Promising Another Rainy Weekend

Most of us will stay dry Tuesday and Wednesday, dodging an occasional pop-up storm. Williamson County, being further south, has the greater chance of seeing a rogue downpour these two days.

Starting Thursday, a series of shortwaves (energy) will traverse the country’s midsection and end up impacting Middle Tennessee. Showers and a few storms are probable Thursday afternoon (and maybe the evening, see below), continuing into Friday. The only real break in the action will be during the day Saturday. If you have any plans to cut the grass, visit the Farmer’s Market, or catch a Sounds Baseball game (vs. Memphis), Saturday is your day.

GFS Model Through Sunday

Rainfall totals through next Monday…a manageable 1-2″:

Live On The Green

Thursday, August 10 6:15 PM to 11 PM || Arkells * Michael Franti & Spearhead * St. Paul and the Broken Bones
  • Temps look great: low 80°s, falling into the low 70°s, with typical summertime Nashville humidity.
  • Will it rain? Forecasting summer storms in Nashville is hard enough the day of an event, and this is written 72 hours from LOTG, so expect the forecast to change, possibly many times. Most models think a few weak sprinklers are possible Thursday night, clearing as the night progresses. No worries. It would be nothing you can’t handle. A few runs of a different model, if they can be believed, predict off-and-on rain Thursday night. NWS-Nashville puts the chance of rain around 40%, which is perfectly reasonable given the lack of weather model consensus. We’ll be updating this forecast on Twitter @NashSevereWx and on the web at NashSevereWx.com.

Details

Three forecast weather models are struggling with what’ll happen rain-wise. Embrace the adage: “all models are wrong, some models are useful.”

The model with the best reputation (the Euro) predicts a wet afternoon, with rain trying to clear east in time for LOTG. This would just be a sprinkle for us, nothing you can’t handle.

Another model (the GFS) is a little more pro-rain, but it’s not a washout, and like the first model it thinks rain will be moving east and clearing out at the night wears on.

The third model, which runs at a higher resolution for time and space (the NAM) but isn’t necessarily more accurate, has a different idea. Instead of rain departing, it predicts a scattered blob of rain arriving during LOTG. Of course, every time this model runs, it comes with a different idea, so I would not place confidence in it.

This forecast uncertainty explains why NWS-Nashville has our chance of rain at 40%.

More tomorrow.


Storms Roll In and Out Today, Saturday Promises to Impress


Wowzers! Saturday is Going to Be Amazing

Low humidity (dew points in the 50s), temperatures in the low to mid 80s, and sunshine will make for a fantastic start to the weekend! I can attest to the power of this cold front…the air behind it feels and smells like fall.

Get ready to take advantage of this awesome weather, because by Sunday…

More Storms, Continuing Into Next Week

GFS Loop Sunday through next Saturday AM

The best chance for rain right now appears to be Sunday night into early Monday morning. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted us for a Marginal Risk again on Sunday for the potential of damaging wind.

The energy that brings us these storms will mesh with a warm front and become a stationary boundary over northern Tennessee. This will mean more chances for storms everyday during peak heating hours.

Another better chance for storms arrives Wednesday with a “shortwave”, or piece of atmosphere energy. This energy will hang around through the remainder of the work week to provide more scattered showers and thunderstorms.

By next weekend, both the EURO and GFS want to continue the rain through Saturday. Models start to split on solutions beyond that. Only time will tell as to who wins that battle…


Abundant Chances For Rain Through Next Week


Better Chances for Storms Through the Weekend

Friday

Storms are expected to be more widespread on Friday as a cold front approaches. This front will be moving through during afternoon peak-heating hours, which means a few thunderstorms could become strong to severe. Damaging winds and hail will be the most notable threats. The Storm Prediction Center has us under a 1/5 risk, or “Marginal” risk.

SPC Day 2 (Friday) Convective Outlook

The only caveat to Friday is that some recent model runs have pushed off storm development to areas along and east of I-65. We’ll keep an eye on this trend as tomorrow afternoon nears.

NAM3 Friday

Saturday and Sunday

Bottom line: Saturday looks great, Sunday not so much.

Humidity levels and temps will be fantastic on Saturday before our Sunday/Sunday night system arrives. Showers and storms will again be increasing Sunday afternoon, especially into Sunday night and Monday.

GFS 6-Hour Accumulated Precipitation Sunday through Tuesday PM

Rest of Next Week – Rain Chances Persist

With a pretty “relaxed” upper level flow, several small pieces of atmospheric energy will be allowed to traverse Middle Tennessee this coming week. Precipitation chances are kept in the official forecast through next Friday in response to this.

WPC Total Precipitation through Thursday morning

2.00″ of rain isn’t a whole lot over a 7-day period, but at least it’s something. Plus, if you get caught under a heavier storm between now and then, local rain amounts could definitely be higher.

Stay tuned to @NashSevereWx on Twitter for more frequent updates on this stormy forecast.