The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, OK has given us a Slight Risk for Sunday afternoon, but we don’t expect widespread severe weather.

Sunday

As mentioned above, spc put us in a slight risk for Sunday. The main concerns are flooding, and a non-zero chance of brief Tornados, damaging wind, and small hail. This isn’t some widespread severe weather event, but it has us interested enough to write a special blog to discuss it. So let’s dig in.

10z HRRR Reflectivity Loop

Above, the HRRR model is running through Sunday night. A storm complex riding a cool front comes our way Sunday afternoon. Exact timing is still a little unsteady, but we think it will be Sunday evening for the “main event”.

We know it will bring us lots of rain.

The above graphic is showing a forecasted amount of multiple inches, and that has triggered a flood watch through Monday morning. Creeks, rivers, drainage ditches will remain full and may exceed flood guidance, triggering flood warnings tomorrow night. An isolated 4″ of rain for some us is not out of the question. Flash flooding will be of most concern in areas that receive a lot of rain yesterday. Creek and river levels can be checked here… NashSevereWX Flood Resources

A flood advisory will like remain in effect through 6pm Wednesday.

Severe Threat

It’s low. But it’s not zero and the greater threat exists if there isn’t a cloud deck in place tomorrow afternoon. The setup Sunday is going to be influenced by storm fuel (heat + instability).

Here’s what the NWS said in their Saturday afternoon AFD…

Afternoon high temps on Sunday expected to sore into mid 70s south with a good amount of instability and favorable lapses rates for strong to severe convection development, especially if rainfall does not move into this portion of mid state region until late afternoon hours allowing for increased atmospheric instability due to enhanced diurnal heating influences. read more

Storms on the Horizon this Afternoon

Heavy localized rainfall and thunderstorms remain for the majority of the afternoon into tonight. The producer for this lineup is caused by a developing warm front moving northward over the area.

Mostly spotty showers and passing light rain will prevail from now until the late afternoon. The heaviest of rain does not appear to move over Nashville until around 8 PM tonight. read more

Here Comes the Sun

The surface front that brought some showers early this morning is making its final eastward exit out of the Plateau.

Clearing skies today will stick around with us for a good portion of the work week with mild temperatures in the 50s and 60s. read more