For many of us the wind is picking up and the change over to some kind of freezing precip is occurring. Temps dropping. Careful on bridges and overpasses tonight.
Radar suggests a wintry mix is falling along and W of 65. Likely sleet mixed in with the rain. 7:21 pm
Rain and Snow(ish) moving in. Currently 45°. Not much hope for sticking south of I 40. Radar as of 702pm.
Very little/no snow expected locally tonight.
Deets: Notice the surface low (the red L below) that’s now just passed to our south. It’s racing to Knoxville then Carolina mtns.
This means:
- Temps are about to drop fast.
- But precip will pull east and away from us quick.
- The 700 MB chart shows the base of the trough getting here late, delaying local rain/snow transition.
- While flakes may fly, surface temps should be too warm for accumulation.
High elevations may get dusted. 99% of us nah.
Off/On downpours. Storm center remains south. Some lightning there. Radar below at 305 PM.
Precip will continue tonight. Mix of rain/snow. Few/No impacts locally. Higher elevations may see a dusting — those up a big hill, Fairview, SE Will Co, and other high spots. HRRR model thinks rain/snow gone by midnight.
Heavy rain, lightning, approaching. Low probability of strong winds and small hail. No tornado.
New Winter Weather Advisory does NOT include Nashville or Will Co. Advisory in blue counties below.
Deets: For those in the WWA
There is a lot of uncertainty about snow amounts. If cold air moves in quickly, snow totals could increase above 2 inches for some spots north of I-40. But, since temperatures have been warm, much of the falling snow may melt resulting in little or no accumulation. Either way, any travel impacts are expected to be limited to elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses.
TLDR: Downpouring during school dismissal thru PM rush hour. Tonight rain/snow mix, very little accumulation. Deets:
HRRR model has the rain coming through late this afternoon. Severe unlikely with expected southern track of the low pressure center.
Heavy afternoon rain. Few storms. Severe unlikely. Tonight: fast cool down. Dusting possible < 1”. New HRRR model has less snow vs last night’s model.
Official NWS-Nashville forecast:
Reason for forecast change: models shifted the center of the storm south. This reduced severe concerns. It increased snow potential.
Rain moves in this afternoon. It might change to snow this evening. Some of us may even pick up a trace of accumulation. Models agree that a light dusting of snow is possible. However, our temp will barely be at freezing so don’t expect any frozen precip to last. Here is predicted snowfall amount from the NWS National Blend of Models, or NBM. Not encouraging for snow fans.
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