Heavy rain, lightning, approaching. Low probability of strong winds and small hail. No tornado.
New Winter Weather Advisory does NOT include Nashville or Will Co. Advisory in blue counties below.
Deets: For those in the WWA
There is a lot of uncertainty about snow amounts. If cold air moves in quickly, snow totals could increase above 2 inches for some spots north of I-40. But, since temperatures have been warm, much of the falling snow may melt resulting in little or no accumulation. Either way, any travel impacts are expected to be limited to elevated surfaces like bridges and overpasses.
TLDR: Downpouring during school dismissal thru PM rush hour. Tonight rain/snow mix, very little accumulation. Deets:
HRRR model has the rain coming through late this afternoon. Severe unlikely with expected southern track of the low pressure center.
Heavy afternoon rain. Few storms. Severe unlikely. Tonight: fast cool down. Dusting possible < 1”. New HRRR model has less snow vs last night’s model.
Official NWS-Nashville forecast:
Reason for forecast change: models shifted the center of the storm south. This reduced severe concerns. It increased snow potential.
Rain moves in this afternoon. It might change to snow this evening. Some of us may even pick up a trace of accumulation. Models agree that a light dusting of snow is possible. However, our temp will barely be at freezing so don’t expect any frozen precip to last. Here is predicted snowfall amount from the NWS National Blend of Models, or NBM. Not encouraging for snow fans.
Late night models now love snow Monday night. Dusting? Will have more in the morning. 👍🏽.
Wild Monday. Rainy lunch. Heavy rain/storms 3 PM – 5 PM. Then a lull. Then evening rain to snow. No impacts (splat:melt). Timing via HRRR model 👇🏽.
Rain (Maybe A Storm) Monday, Addressing sNOw Chances
Rain is currently missing us to the south, and we should be able to get by with a dry evening. A few of us could see a brief shower though.
Rain chances pick back up tomorrow.
HRRR model (above) shows:
- on/off Monday morning rain
- thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, 3 – 4 pm looks like best-guess timeframe right now (could change)
- no severe weather currently expected, but a storm or two could contain some gusty winds and maybe some small hail
- and yes, snow may fall late Monday night, but it is not expected to stick, air temps are expected to remain above freezing, therefore no impacts expected
Tuesday, we dry out and will have cold mornings and mild afternoons throughout the work week. No rain chances until maybe late week.
Radar at 440pm shows a little rain entering Middle TN. No big deal.
Squashing Snow Rumors.
Rain misses us south during the Buper Sowl (I don’t think you’re allowed to say it unless you’re an official sponsor which we are /checks notes/ not). HRRR model below.
Monday
Surface low – the 997 red R below – passes overhead. Off/On morning and afternoon rain. No flood concern.
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