Good News —

Removed: the 15% probability of severe weather for Wednesday. Rain Tues and thunderstorms Weds, but severe weather now appears less likely.

What changed: recent model runs show a dry airmass Monday thru Weds. When Weds’ troublemaking cold front arrives, storm-fueling moisture and instability will be low. Bad storms need moisture and instability. Without them, meh.

Tuesday expect:

  1. Light rain, off and on, rainouts unlikely.
  2. Gusty winds 30+ MPH.

Weds expect:

  1. 30+ MPH winds even without storms.
  2. One storm line with heavy rain (no flooding) and straight-line winds 35-40 MPH.
  3. Severe weather unlikely.
  4. Rapid temperature drop after the rain. Temps may drop so fast, trapping moisture, perhaps creating snow off to our east.

Storm line timing remains iffy. Brand new Euro model shows storm line with Weds morning arrival:

What may change later:

  1. Storm line timing.
  2. Severity. System has substantial wind energy. Any surge in moisture/instability will re-raise severe concerns. Below the machine learning/AI product from Colorado State maintains our Weds severe weather probabilities (we think this is unlikely, but we will not hide data from you).

Temps recover by next weekend.

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