TLDR: Downpouring during school dismissal thru PM rush hour. Tonight rain/snow mix, very little accumulation. Deets:
HRRR model has the rain coming through late this afternoon. Severe unlikely with expected southern track of the low pressure center.
Heavy afternoon rain. Few storms. Severe unlikely. Tonight: fast cool down. Dusting possible < 1”. New HRRR model has less snow vs last night’s model.
Official NWS-Nashville forecast:
Reason for forecast change: models shifted the center of the storm south. This reduced severe concerns. It increased snow potential.
Rain moves in this afternoon. It might change to snow this evening. Some of us may even pick up a trace of accumulation. Models agree that a light dusting of snow is possible. However, our temp will barely be at freezing so don’t expect any frozen precip to last. Here is predicted snowfall amount from the NWS National Blend of Models, or NBM. Not encouraging for snow fans.
Late night models now love snow Monday night. Dusting? Will have more in the morning. 👍🏽.
Wild Monday. Rainy lunch. Heavy rain/storms 3 PM – 5 PM. Then a lull. Then evening rain to snow. No impacts (splat:melt). Timing via HRRR model 👇🏽.
Rain (Maybe A Storm) Monday, Addressing sNOw Chances
Rain is currently missing us to the south, and we should be able to get by with a dry evening. A few of us could see a brief shower though.
Rain chances pick back up tomorrow.
HRRR model (above) shows:
- on/off Monday morning rain
- thunderstorms possible in the afternoon, 3 – 4 pm looks like best-guess timeframe right now (could change)
- no severe weather currently expected, but a storm or two could contain some gusty winds and maybe some small hail
- and yes, snow may fall late Monday night, but it is not expected to stick, air temps are expected to remain above freezing, therefore no impacts expected
Tuesday, we dry out and will have cold mornings and mild afternoons throughout the work week. No rain chances until maybe late week.
Radar at 440pm shows a little rain entering Middle TN. No big deal.
Squashing Snow Rumors.
Rain misses us south during the Buper Sowl (I don’t think you’re allowed to say it unless you’re an official sponsor which we are /checks notes/ not). HRRR model below.
Monday
Surface low – the 997 red R below – passes overhead. Off/On morning and afternoon rain. No flood concern.
See this rain radar image in the voice of bugs alarmingly exclaiming concern about incoming RAID bug spray. Gasp RAAAAID!!! / 537 PM
Rain Tonight, Maybe Rain Sunday Evening, Rain Monday, No Shenanigans Expected
Rain, rain, and more rain expected today. Thankfully, we should be able to avoid any thunderstorms.
HRRR model (above) shows rain continuing throughout the remainder of today, ending before Sunday morning. No major flooding concerns, but flood-prone places could see some minor flooding.
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