Rain is likely overnight tonight as we sleep. So says the Hi-Res NAM (4 AM):
Several other models say the same thing — rain piles in during the middle of the night, and slowly moves across the area in the morning through noon. It finally departs sometime tomorrow afternoon/early evening.
The steady rain is moving out. Nevertheless, the Storm Prediction Center has introduced a Slight Risk of severe weather for us this afternoon and tonight.
The probability of a tornado within 25 miles of you is 2%:
Plan for rain.
The NWS forecasts rain at 7 a.m. Four weather models agree:
HRRR:
RAP:
Hi-Res NAM:
SREF: holds the heaviest rain until mid-morning.
Over 1/2″ is expected to fall from 7am to 1pm Saturday:
Because this is the eve of the Country Music Marathon, Franklin’s Main Street Festival, countless baseball, soccer, [insert preferred outdoor sport] games, let’s go way overboard with the weather models. We’ll ask the weather models about Tonight, Sat 7 a.m., Sat 1p.m., and Sat 7 p.m. Sunday’s forecast is mentioned at the end.
Rain is very likely Saturday. The heaviest rain is forecast to fall Saturday morning, during the Country Music Marathon. Here are the models:
European: Rain arrives Friday night and lasts through Saturday morning. By 7 a.m., the rain is along and south of I-40 (see below).
GFS and European wx models have been predicting rain Saturday morning. Today, there are other models now in range of the weekend. So, let’s dig in:
Global Forecast System (GFS) forecasts light rain all morning. Earlier this week, this model was calling for 4 times as much rain.
(Updated around 8pm Tuesday night)
Earlier today the models suggested the rain would arrive early Wednesday morning. Tonight’s model runs suggest the rain may hold off until mid morning.
For example, the WRF delivers us the heaviest rain around 1pm:
We are in the peak of tornado season in Middle Tennessee. The good news is there is no widespread severe weather in the forecast.
Our beautiful, “normal” Springtime weather continues.
Clouds arrive.
The run of nice weather continues. Monday we’ll hit 73, Tuesday 74. Rain may sneak in late Tuesday night.
A cold front is forecast to shove rain and maybe a few storms during the wee hours of Wednesday morning. Severe weather is possible off to our west, but modest dew points and meager instability should limit our severe weather potential. Expect around 1/2″ rain, mostly Wednesday morning.
Clouds and sun, highs 67 Thursday and 71 Friday.
COUNTRY MUSIC MARATHON – APRIL 27, 2013
Before any “please don’t let it rain this weekend” folks freak out, remember: the Marathon is six days away. That’s a long time in forecast-land. Many think forecasts for weather happening more than 72 hours away (some would argue 48 hours away) are in voodoo land.
So, with that qualification, here is what smart people think.
1. National Weather Service – Nashville:
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM (THIS TIME FROM THE DESERT SW) PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE WEEKEND. IN STICKING WITH THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS OF SLOWING FRONTAL APPROACHES...WILL TRIM BACK PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION (POPS) ON FRIDAY AND KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY LASTING INTO SUNDAY PER THE EURO/GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES.
This will be easy. Expect beautiful weather Sunday (68) and Monday (71).
Rain arrives Tuesday, probably late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. There’s no severe weather on the horizon.
Enjoy the weekend!
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