A cool front will arrive from the Ohio River. The models disagree if rain will come along.
The HRRR predicts a few light, scattered showers this afternoon:
The RAP does not:
At 12:50 p.m., a few very light showers appeared along the Ohio River, crossing into Kentucky. Our rain chances are pretty low, and if we get a shower, it likely will not ruin tonight’s outdoor activities.
The models want to send us some rain in the middle of the night. For example, observe the RAP at 3 a.m.:
Gusty winds to 16 m.p.h. and cooler temps await.
There’s a chance of a few rain showers (but not storms) passing through late Thursday morning or afternoon (below: WRF at 4 p.m.). This should not be enough to rain out any Thursday night games:
Storms are firing up to our west and along I-65. They’re moving NNE instead of the typical W to E motion. A few maybe strong, some severe.
The Storm Prediction Center issued its mid-afternoon update. Our severe risks have been downgraded.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed us under a “Slight” Risk for severe weather today.
The morning radar looks pretty clear. A few isolated rain showers may drive by.
Weather models form a broken line of scattered thunderstorms across Middle TN from around noon through dark. Some/Many of these should impact us, and might be severe.
Remember this afternoon’s Forecast Discussion from the NWS, which made three main points about (1) Tonight, (2) Wednesday), & (3) Thursday.
(1). Tonight: The storms marching this way from Arkansas tonight into the wee hours of the morning may weaken.
Below is the weatherbell.com animated gif showing storms across the region from 1 p.m. until around 7 p.m. tonight:
Updated at 12:10 p.m.
Here is a Special Weather Statement from our NWS:
...TORRENTIAL RAIN AND STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE... AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ONE OF THESE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45MPH. SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY TOWARDS DAWN WEDNESDAY AS SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND MARCH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH MIDDLE TENNESSEE VERY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONG WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL BEING THE MAIN THREATS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT...AND AT THIS TIME...A TORNADO THREAT LOOKS VERY LOW. IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT MIDDLE TENNESSEE TODAY... TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN OKLAHOMA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE BETWEEN ROUGHLY 3AM AND 8AM NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER...WITH STORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE FURTHER EAST. A THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS WILL STILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION.
Yesterday, a devastating tornado struck Moore, OK (pop 56,315), which is south of Oklahoma City. This is the same area hit by an historic tornado on May 3, 1999. Early/preliminary reports indicate this tornado may have been worse. The NWS in Norman preliminarily rated it an EF-4.
Today – High 88 & Tuesday – 69/89
Warm and muggy both days with isolated thunderstorms possible (but unlikely). We may make it to 90 both days, especially if these clouds move out.
Tuesday Night & Wednesday (67/83) – Rain & Storms
Monday – 68/90 – Partly Sunny – Maybe An Isolated Afternoon Thunderstorm
Tuesday – 69/88 – Chance of Rain/Scattered Thunderstorms
A cold front will be approaching. The chance of rain will increase as we go through the day.