It’s much more humid at 9 am this morning (dew point 70) than it was at any time yesterday.
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This morning’s weather balloon showed 2,843 j/kg of Convective Available Potential Energy, or CAPE. Think of CAPE as the building blocks which make storms. You usually only need 1,000 – 1,500 j/kg for strong storms to happen. Models predict we will have 3,500 j/kg soon, and up to 5,000 to 5,500 j/kg this afternoon. 3,500 is PLENTY of building blocks to make a strong to severe thunderstorm.
Today
The high humidity we had this morning (dew points in the mid-upper 60s) usually sets off afternoon thunderstorms. That has not happened today. We’ve dodged the rain. So far.
The water vapor image tells the story:
I’m feeling good about your soccer game, 10 year anniversary party, and late afternoon motorcycle ride into town, but you should not ignore the weather today.
Saturday Morning – 75 at 10am
Water vapor imagery displays the amount of moisture in various levels of the atmosphere. The more you get, the better your rain chances.
It’s been another wet start to the weekend. Seems like “weekend” and “rain” mean the same thing.
Tonight
Most of the showers and thunderstorms are going to stay to our south tonight, but you’ll still need a rain jacket or umbrella if heading out. At least it’ill be warm, with 70 degrees forecast at 10 PM.
The models keep things pretty quiet today through tomorrow morning. Here is the RAP model from Thursday night through Friday morning at 10am:
Friday – 63/78
The weather models (Euro, GFS, NAM and WRF) deliver scattered rain showers in and around us most of the day Friday and into Saturday morning, all thanks to a “shortwave trough” (low pressure) that’ll truck on through.
Thursday – 62/82
All four weather models (GFS, NAM, Euro, WRF) scatter light rain through middle TN during the afternoon and evening hours. These will be hit/miss showers – meaning we may or may not get wet. The odds of us getting wet are around 1 in 3. There may also be a few thunderstorms, but severe weather is not expected.
Today we’ll top out around 84°, rain free, with very little humidity. Be careful, though, the sun can still burn you. The winds are picking up, but are comfortably under advisory criteria.
Wednesday – 59/87
Our NWS is so confident we won’t see rain through Wednesday that they’ve taken down the radar for maintenance.
Tuesday 49/83 & Wednesday 59/86
Heat will start to build, but the humidity won’t be that bad.
A gorgeous day!
NWS has issue a extremely-rare-for-May Frost Advisory for overnight (early Monday morning):
...FROST AND RECORD BREAKING LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT... .AN UNUSUALLY COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SETTLE ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MUCH OF THE MID STATE. SOME PARTS OF THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION COULD BRIEFLY DROP CLOSE TO FREEZING AROUND DAYBREAK. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP VERY QUICKLY MONDAY MORNING THANKS TO STRONG MID MAY SUNSHINE.
The ground is wet. Yesterday we got 0.36″ at the airport. Still waiting on official totals, but it looks like Williamson Co got more rain than Davidson.
At 5:44 am this morning, the only rain anywhere close to us was in east Tennessee, moving away:
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