The ground is wet. Yesterday we got 0.36″ at the airport. Still waiting on official totals, but it looks like Williamson Co got more rain than Davidson.
At 5:44 am this morning, the only rain anywhere close to us was in east Tennessee, moving away:
The HRRR is still calling for periods of rain between 4pm Friday and 2am Saturday:
The HRRR has been overdoing the precip all day, and I expect that trend will continue tonight. We had 0.8″ forecast, but only 0.31″ is in the can now. More to come tonight (as you can see above). I think we will end up around 0.4″ to 0.5″.
Expect off and on rain. This is what the HRRR thinks the radar will look like from 4pm to 11pm today.
The Hi-Res NAM thinks the radar does this between 10am today and 4am Saturday (each frame = 3 hours):
With Steeplecase, Fiddin’ Fish 5K, a HUGE soccer tournament in Williamson County, ball games, parties, graduations, etc. happening this weekend, we’re all wondering: will it rain?
The best forecast comes from the NWS – Nashville. They consider all the models (which I detail below), and comes up with a consensus, intelligent, and reasoned forecast (in my opinion, anyway).
Pop-up afternoon storms should diminish after dark. The HRRR thinks a few showers may survive sundown and arrive from NW TN around 5am.
We will wake up to fog in the usual spots.
Daytime heating may set off scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon through sundown. These will be of the hit or miss variety.
Showers should develop and scatter across middle TN. There’s a small chance we will see one or two. Fog develops overnight and lasts into this morning. If you were foggy this morning, it’s likely you’ll be foggy Wednesday morning.
Very light, scattered showers or a thunderstorm possible today. Odds of one getting you are pretty low, but if it’s going to happen, the HRRR thinks 6pm is the most likely time:
Like today, the odds of rain are small. If it’s going to rain, early evening is the most likely time. Here’s the Hi-Res NAM showing Wednesday night at 7pm:
Thursday, Friday & SteeplechasedayThursday – High 82
Much like today and Wednesday — chance of rain or a thunderstorm, most likely in the late afternoon/evening hours.
Friday – High 77
Thunderstorms are likely Friday into Friday night. Our NWS was talking about it this morning:
MODELS CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE ARRIVAL OF A PRETTY DECENT COLD FRONT . . . SLICING ACROSS THE MID-STATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AND USHERING IN A PERIOD OF RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
I’ve had about 50 people ask: “What about Steeplechase?” Approximately 100% of them are women, all wondering what to wear.
Before we dive in, a disclaimer: I’m about to show weather models for Friday & Saturday. Weather models are never the Gospel Truth, and are certainly not to be relied upon 5 days away. They are a decent indication of what might happen.
Today
Although the morning rain moved out, models redevelop showers to our east this afternoon and early evening, and spin them in here. These isolated/scattered showers are approaching in an usual direction: east-to-west. We call these “Crazy Ivans,” a reference to The Hunt for Red October (where a Russian nuclear submarine – from the east – almost started a war by defecting to the west). If you don’t get it, relax, you’re better off for it (for those who’ve seen the movie or read the book, we know it’s also not a technically accurate phrase). It’s nerd humor.
The weather version of the
is a low pressure center. A few important differences between the Sit-n-Spin and a low pressure sit and spin include:
Similarities:
For the last several days, this particular low pressure center has been cut off from the winds which would push it into the Atlantic Ocean. Yesterday it was around Memphis. Today it crawled to E MS and N AL, which is around where all the models think it’ll be tomorrow as it drifts further east and spins light rain showers into middle Tennessee. Here’s the NAM model, which is a fair representation of the rest of the models: