Tonight
Showers should develop and scatter across middle TN. There’s a small chance we will see one or two. Fog develops overnight and lasts into this morning. If you were foggy this morning, it’s likely you’ll be foggy Wednesday morning.
Wednesday – 53/78; Thursday – 57/83
The sun will burn off Wednesday morning fog.
Wednesday & Thursday may bring a few showers before the sun goes down. Daytime heating and vertical temperature profiles suggest a few storms may meet advisory or warning (non-tornado) criteria. Lightning is certainly possible with any storm. Here’s the Hi-Res NAM Wednesday at 4pm:
NWS expects 20% to 30% of middle TN to see rain and/or storms Wednesday or Thursday afternoon.
Friday – 62/79
Rain and thunderstorms are likely most of the day, ahead of an arriving cold front. The front should get here late Friday night or early Saturday morning.
In addition to the rainfall we get during the day Friday, another 0.5″ is expected Friday night into the wee hours of Saturday morning. Add it all up and we expect close to or less than 1″ of rain by the time you wake up Saturday morning.
Saturday/Steeplechase – 60/74
If the front comes through Friday night as expected, we will see the rain slowly clear out Saturday morning. The ground will be pretty wet from the night before. I think the ladies will need cute boots for Steeplechase.
The GFS & European models keep the morning dry, but after noon, it likes more light rain to return thanks to a secondary cold front. This is the 4th consecutive different solution from the weather models for Saturday, so I wouldn’t read much into it. You still need to prepare for rain Saturday, but it looks more like a nuisance rain, instead of a don’t-go-to-Steeplechase rain. Most of the rain should fall Friday night into Saturday morning.
The secondary cold front will deliver drier and colder air for Sunday.
Sunday – 52/67
Clearing out. Finally.
Check back tomorrow morning for another update.
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