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Rainy Friday, Drying Out Saturday (We Hope!)

With Steeplecase, Fiddin’ Fish 5K, a HUGE soccer tournament in Williamson County, ball games, parties, graduations, etc. happening this weekend, we’re all wondering: will it rain?

The best forecast comes from the NWS – Nashville. They consider all the models (which I detail below), and comes up with a consensus, intelligent, and reasoned forecast (in my opinion, anyway).

NWS – Nashville

Friday 4am: Rain “likely.”

Friday 7am to 4pm: Rain “definite.”

Friday 4pm to 10pm: Rain “likely.”

Friday 10pm to Saturday 4am: “Chance” of rain.

Saturday 7am to 10am: “Slight” chance of rain.

Saturday 10am through the rest of the weekend: rain not expected.

Rain totals by Saturday at 7am: Davidson 0.75″, Williamson 0.77″.

Hi-Res NAM Model

This is a loop of the simulated radar from 7am Friday to 7am Saturday (each frame moves in three hour increments):

By 7am Saturday, the Hi-Res NAM dries us out….until a secondary front delivers the potential for more rain later Saturday night. Here’s the simulated radar Saturday at 7pm showing rain projected to swing into middle TN later Saturday night:

GFS Model

This model thinks it’ll rain most of the day Friday. The heaviest rain is forecast for Friday around 1pm:

The GFS shuts off the rain Saturday at 7am:

The GFS does not redevelop rain the rest of the weekend.

WRF Model

This model predicts less rain.  It starts the rain around 10am:

and ends it by 1am Saturday morning:

It does not develop additional rainfall for the rest of the weekend. It passes the residual Saturday afternoon rain safely to our south:

European

Thinks there will be light to moderate rain Friday morning through Friday night. It keeps light, nuisance showers around all morning Saturday, and does not kick the rain out of here until 4pm Saturday.

SREF

Friday — most of the day rain — just like the other models. Here it is Friday at 1pm:

Saturday, it gives us a little bit of rain through 10am (see below), then it slowly moves the rain off to the east:

Summary

It is going to rain Friday. It may rain more or less than the 1″ forecast (possibly less), but it’s certainly going to be wet. Some areas in Davidson & Williamson County will get less rain than others. So, if your ball field handles rain well, you may have a chance of playing Saturday; if not, this forecast does not look good.

Steeplechase does NOT look like a wash-out. I think it should stay dry for most of the day, especially in the afternoon.  However, this timing of the exiting rainmaker makes me a little nervous. You can bet on wet/muddy grounds, and you should have an umbrella/rain shoes ready. Severe weather is NOT expected. Temps will top out in the low to mid 70s.

Sunday we will dry out. Temps will be a bit cooler, but it’ll still be nice in mid to upper 60s.

Look for another update tomorrow.

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