Iroquois Steeplechase: Wet Friday, Dry Saturday (at least for now)

I’ve had about 50 people ask: “What about Steeplechase?”  Approximately 100% of them are women, all wondering what to wear.

Before we dive in, a disclaimer:  I’m about to show weather models for Friday & Saturday. Weather models are never the Gospel Truth, and are certainly not to be relied upon 5 days away.  They are a decent indication of what might happen.

We’ll review the American GFS & the (arguably better performing) European weather models. These models update 4 and 2 times a day, respectively.

From Thursday night to Saturday night, the Weather Prediction Center (NOAA) forecasts almost 2″ of rain:

Right now, it looks like all that rain will fall Friday. This would be a pretty good soaking.


Rain and thunderstorms are likely.

The GFS model predicts rain for 7pm Friday.

The European model, also at 7pm Friday, shows all rain (purple/blue is rain here):

Saturday Morning

Rejoice! The rain departs.

By 4am, the GFS and European models both move the rain out of middle Tennessee.

Both models keep us dry the rest of the day.

Before you celebrate, remember three things:

(1)  This time yesterday, both models predicted a wet mess Friday and Saturday. As quickly as today’s model runs dried up the rain, future models could send the rain back in.

(2)  As we wrote yesterday, May 11 is climatologically one of the wettest days on the calendar. Our NWS is still sticking with a 40% chance of rain despite today’s models, and for good reason. The models can’t really be trusted.

(3)  The best bet right now is that the grounds will be wet from Friday’s rain.

Plan one outfit for rain, one for sun, and be sure you have rain boots.

Men: you’ll need your sunglasses, regardless of the rain.